## Loading required package: readxl
## Loading required package: lubridate
## 
## Attaching package: 'lubridate'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:data.table':
## 
##     hour, isoweek, mday, minute, month, quarter, second, wday, week,
##     yday, year
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
## 
##     date, intersect, setdiff, union
## Loading required package: solartime
## - Winter data excluded.
## - The counts of all passing / wintering species (not resident nor breeding in the sampled unit) were set to zero. Abreed_and_non_breed contains the non-breeders as well.

Mediterranean Maquis

Unit is divided into 3 subunits: Judea, Carmel and Galilee. Factors are proximity to settlements and time. Sampling started in spring 2012 (pilot year), but during T0 sampling was performed only in winter of 2014, and the next spring sampling was done in T1 (2015). Therefore 2012 will not be considered as pilot here but as T0. Total 5 campaigns, 3subunits per campaign, 5 sites per subunit, with 6 plots per site (total of 450 plot-campaign combinations).

Raw data Total abundance: 21855 Number of observations: 5795 Total richness: 108

Filtered data Total abundance: 13796 Number of observations: 4265 Total richness: 49

Model gma, abundance and richness

Richness done with rare species. Abundance and mean abundance done without rare species. Full models include cosine and sine of the time difference from June 21st (in radians).

richness

Explore data and plot mean-variance plot. There is a strong relationship, indicating that employing GLMs is the proper way to analyze, rather than OLS (assumption of homogeneity is violated).

## [1] "RICHNESS WITH RARE SPECIES"
## ℹ SHA-1 hash of file is "eef55df1963ba201f57cf44513f566298756fd4f"
richness year_ct site settlements subunit td_sc cos_td_rad sin_td_rad h_from_sunrise cos_hsun sin_hsun monitors_name wind precipitation temperature clouds
Min. : 0.000 Min. :0.0 Nir Etzion : 31 Far :224 Judean Highlands:149 Min. :-1.9882 Min. :-0.1671 Min. :-1.0000 Length:444 Min. :-0.3289 Min. :-0.1253 Sassi Haham : 53 0 : 33 0 :119 0 : 4 0 : 32
1st Qu.: 6.000 1st Qu.:3.0 Ein Yaakov : 30 Near:220 Carmel :150 1st Qu.:-0.2713 1st Qu.: 0.5702 1st Qu.:-0.8215 Class :difftime 1st Qu.: 0.6855 1st Qu.: 0.2563 Eyal Shochat: 47 1 : 42 3 : 2 1 : 38 1 : 0
Median : 8.000 Median :5.0 Givat Yearim : 30 NA Galilee :145 Median : 0.4918 Median : 0.8140 Median :-0.5808 Mode :numeric Median : 0.8738 Median : 0.4863 Eran Banker : 30 2 : 12 NA’s:323 2 : 37 2 : 5
Mean : 8.054 Mean :4.8 Givat Yeshayahu: 30 NA NA Mean : 0.3205 Mean : 0.7098 Mean :-0.5864 NA Mean : 0.7997 Mean : 0.4836 Asaf Mayrose: 18 3 : 2 NA 3 : 18 3 : 13
3rd Qu.:10.000 3rd Qu.:7.0 Goren : 30 NA NA 3rd Qu.: 1.1023 3rd Qu.: 0.9413 3rd Qu.:-0.3375 NA 3rd Qu.: 0.9666 3rd Qu.: 0.7281 Ohad Sharir : 18 NA’s:355 NA NA’s:347 NA’s:394
Max. :18.000 Max. :9.0 Kerem Maharal : 30 NA NA Max. : 1.7127 Max. : 0.9976 Max. :-0.0688 NA Max. : 1.0000 Max. : 0.9998 (Other) : 58 NA NA NA NA
NA NA (Other) :263 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA’s :89 NA’s :89 NA’s :220 NA NA NA NA

no observation for all 4 weather variables. many NAs for sampling time of day variables.exclude from model. An extreme observation of richness>20 in Judean highlands near settlements.

richness year_ct site settlements subunit td_sc cos_td_rad sin_td_rad h_from_sunrise cos_hsun sin_hsun
richness 1.0000000 -0.0647635 0.0926545 0.4762118 -0.1936858 0.0617968 0.0751315 0.0460403 -0.0582024 0.0933868 -0.0342460
year_ct -0.0647635 1.0000000 -0.0460962 -0.0041782 0.0046005 -0.6240340 -0.5599811 -0.6642968 0.0244310 -0.0070326 0.0341395
site 0.0926545 -0.0460962 1.0000000 0.0038640 -0.1472070 0.0103683 0.0017250 0.0296647 -0.0105111 -0.0092740 -0.0240278
settlements 0.4762118 -0.0041782 0.0038640 1.0000000 -0.0167082 0.0029695 0.0016285 0.0037459 0.0341209 -0.0071595 0.0507160
subunit -0.1936858 0.0046005 -0.1472070 -0.0167082 1.0000000 -0.0056370 -0.0129685 -0.0136922 0.1193296 -0.1166460 0.1174210
td_sc 0.0617968 -0.6240340 0.0103683 0.0029695 -0.0056370 1.0000000 0.9788766 0.9693667 -0.1975082 0.1811635 -0.2043768
cos_td_rad 0.0751315 -0.5599811 0.0017250 0.0016285 -0.0129685 0.9788766 1.0000000 0.9008724 -0.1878186 0.1700185 -0.1970275
sin_td_rad 0.0460403 -0.6642968 0.0296647 0.0037459 -0.0136922 0.9693667 0.9008724 1.0000000 -0.2005880 0.1868900 -0.2040813
h_from_sunrise -0.0582024 0.0244310 -0.0105111 0.0341209 0.1193296 -0.1975082 -0.1878186 -0.2005880 1.0000000 -0.9598144 0.9818950
cos_hsun 0.0933868 -0.0070326 -0.0092740 -0.0071595 -0.1166460 0.1811635 0.1700185 0.1868900 -0.9598144 1.0000000 -0.8930078
sin_hsun -0.0342460 0.0341395 -0.0240278 0.0507160 0.1174210 -0.2043768 -0.1970275 -0.2040813 0.9818950 -0.8930078 1.0000000

Fit Poisson glm, check for existence of overdispersion

## [1] "Estimating overdispersion parameter phi: (Res. Dev.)/(n-p) where n=number of observations; p=number of parameters in the model."
## [1] "od = 0.911421796551234"

Overdispersion parameter is < 1. Choose Poisson.

## Warning in checkConv(attr(opt, "derivs"), opt$par, ctrl = control$checkConv, :
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.00212765 (tol = 0.002, component 1)

mixed model failed to converge. check vif.

##                         GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## settlements         3.276022  1        1.809979
## year_ct             4.624930  1        2.150565
## subunit             3.299661  2        1.347775
## cos_td_rad          5.685761  1        2.384483
## sin_td_rad          7.452876  1        2.729996
## settlements:year_ct 4.691866  1        2.166072
## year_ct:subunit     7.151841  2        1.635326

go with mixed model, attempt model selection yet.

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: richness ~ settlements * year_ct + subunit * year_ct + cos_td_rad +  
##     sin_td_rad + (1 | site)
##    Data: P.anal
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   2115.9   2161.0  -1047.0   2093.9      433 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -3.00871 -0.60449 -0.09758  0.58170  2.82777 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  site   (Intercept) 0.008489 0.09213 
## Number of obs: 444, groups:  site, 16
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                          Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)              1.463667   0.217828   6.719 1.83e-11 ***
## settlementsNear          0.394936   0.061558   6.416 1.40e-10 ***
## year_ct                  0.002820   0.011532   0.245   0.8068    
## subunitCarmel            0.112586   0.093603   1.203   0.2291    
## subunitGalilee          -0.085175   0.098040  -0.869   0.3850    
## cos_td_rad               0.346220   0.151470   2.286   0.0223 *  
## sin_td_rad              -0.307700   0.178412  -1.725   0.0846 .  
## settlementsNear:year_ct -0.002305   0.010856  -0.212   0.8318    
## year_ct:subunitCarmel   -0.006280   0.012993  -0.483   0.6289    
## year_ct:subunitGalilee  -0.024484   0.014572  -1.680   0.0929 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) sttlmN yer_ct sbntCr sbntGl cs_td_ sn_td_ sttN:_ yr_c:C
## settlmntsNr -0.178                                                        
## year_ct     -0.228  0.467                                                 
## subunitCrml -0.345 -0.002  0.331                                          
## subunitGall -0.378  0.008  0.310  0.516                                   
## cos_td_rad  -0.921  0.009  0.043  0.119  0.155                            
## sin_td_rad   0.880 -0.011  0.098 -0.168 -0.220 -0.857                     
## sttlmntsN:_  0.150 -0.833 -0.560  0.001 -0.008 -0.009  0.012              
## yr_ct:sbntC  0.324  0.001 -0.493 -0.660 -0.368 -0.161  0.251  0.002       
## yr_ct:sbntG  0.353 -0.008 -0.437 -0.341 -0.688 -0.204  0.298  0.014  0.516
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.00212765 (tol = 0.002, component 1)

perform stepwise model selection of poisson mixed model.

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## richness ~ settlements * year_ct + subunit * year_ct + cos_td_rad + 
##     sin_td_rad + (1 | site)
##                     npar    AIC
## <none>                   2115.9
## cos_td_rad             1 2119.2
## sin_td_rad             1 2116.9
## settlements:year_ct    1 2114.0
## year_ct:subunit        2 2115.0

remove settlements X year.

## Warning in checkConv(attr(opt, "derivs"), opt$par, ctrl = control$checkConv, :
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.00233045 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Warning in checkConv(attr(opt, "derivs"), opt$par, ctrl = control$checkConv, :
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.00227907 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Warning in checkConv(attr(opt, "derivs"), opt$par, ctrl = control$checkConv, :
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.00284994 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## richness ~ settlements + subunit * year_ct + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + 
##     (1 | site)
##                 npar    AIC
## <none>               2114.0
## settlements        1 2241.6
## cos_td_rad         1 2117.3
## sin_td_rad         1 2114.9
## subunit:year_ct    2 2113.0

drop year X subunit.

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## richness ~ settlements + subunit + year_ct + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + 
##     (1 | site)
##             npar    AIC
## <none>           2113.0
## settlements    1 2240.8
## subunit        2 2120.3
## year_ct        1 2111.5
## cos_td_rad     1 2115.1
## sin_td_rad     1 2112.8

drop year.

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## richness ~ settlements + subunit + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + 
##     (1 | site)
##             npar    AIC
## <none>           2111.5
## settlements    1 2239.4
## subunit        2 2118.7
## cos_td_rad     1 2113.3
## sin_td_rad     1 2110.8

drop sine.

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## richness ~ settlements + subunit + cos_td_rad + (1 | site)
##             npar    AIC
## <none>           2110.8
## settlements    1 2238.5
## subunit        2 2118.0
## cos_td_rad     1 2113.5

Settlements, subunit and time of year remain. Final model:

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: richness ~ settlements + subunit + cos_td_rad + (1 | site)
##    Data: P.anal
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   2110.8   2135.4  -1049.4   2098.8      438 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -3.09026 -0.59675 -0.07933  0.56203  2.96581 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  site   (Intercept) 0.009619 0.09808 
## Number of obs: 444, groups:  site, 16
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)      1.80687    0.07258  24.896   <2e-16 ***
## settlementsNear  0.38421    0.03401  11.296   <2e-16 ***
## subunitCarmel    0.08257    0.07349   1.124   0.2612    
## subunitGalilee  -0.20004    0.07405  -2.702   0.0069 ** 
## cos_td_rad       0.13535    0.06305   2.147   0.0318 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) sttlmN sbntCr sbntGl
## settlmntsNr -0.279                     
## subunitCrml -0.526  0.002              
## subunitGall -0.508  0.009  0.502       
## cos_td_rad  -0.635 -0.002  0.021 -0.003
## $site
##                   (Intercept)
## Abirim          -7.321848e-02
## Aderet           6.137108e-02
## Beit Oren       -2.233669e-02
## Ein Yaakov      -2.970003e-02
## Givat Yearim    -7.623271e-02
## Givat Yeshayahu  9.364091e-02
## Goren           -7.232404e-03
## Iftach           1.773011e-01
## Kerem Maharal    9.669359e-02
## Kfar Shamai     -5.892993e-02
## Margaliot       -1.725282e-03
## Nehusha         -4.299542e-02
## Nir Etzion      -1.521589e-01
## Ofer             8.260917e-02
## Ramat Raziel    -3.076398e-02
## Yagur            2.684868e-05
## 
## with conditional variances for "site"
## $site

attempt to add year, see if significant:

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: richness ~ year_ct + settlements + subunit + cos_td_rad + (1 |  
##     site)
##    Data: P.anal
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   2112.8   2141.5  -1049.4   2098.8      437 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -3.0946 -0.6000 -0.0782  0.5691  2.9651 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  site   (Intercept) 0.009581 0.09788 
## Number of obs: 444, groups:  site, 16
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                   Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)      1.8147139  0.0962891  18.847   <2e-16 ***
## year_ct         -0.0008103  0.0065499  -0.124   0.9015    
## settlementsNear  0.3841894  0.0340127  11.295   <2e-16 ***
## subunitCarmel    0.0824132  0.0733925   1.123   0.2615    
## subunitGalilee  -0.2001589  0.0739537  -2.707   0.0068 ** 
## cos_td_rad       0.1298876  0.0769263   1.688   0.0913 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) yer_ct sttlmN sbntCr sbntGl
## year_ct     -0.658                            
## settlmntsNr -0.214  0.005                     
## subunitCrml -0.407  0.016  0.002              
## subunitGall -0.391  0.013  0.009  0.502       
## cos_td_rad  -0.769  0.574  0.001  0.027  0.005

year not significant, rightfully dropped. center time of year variable, highly correlated with intercept.

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: richness ~ settlements + subunit + cos_td_rad_c + (1 | site)
##    Data: P.anal
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   2110.8   2135.4  -1049.4   2098.8      438 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -3.09026 -0.59674 -0.07933  0.56201  2.96580 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  site   (Intercept) 0.009619 0.09808 
## Number of obs: 444, groups:  site, 16
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)      1.90293    0.05611  33.916   <2e-16 ***
## settlementsNear  0.38421    0.03401  11.296   <2e-16 ***
## subunitCarmel    0.08256    0.07349   1.124   0.2612    
## subunitGalilee  -0.20004    0.07404  -2.702   0.0069 ** 
## cos_td_rad_c     0.13534    0.06305   2.147   0.0318 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) sttlmN sbntCr sbntGl
## settlmntsNr -0.363                     
## subunitCrml -0.663  0.002              
## subunitGall -0.660  0.009  0.502       
## cos_td_rd_c -0.023 -0.002  0.021 -0.003
## Registered S3 methods overwritten by 'broom':
##   method            from  
##   tidy.glht         jtools
##   tidy.summary.glht jtools
Observations 444
Dependent variable richness
Type Mixed effects generalized linear model
Family poisson
Link log
AIC 2110.815
BIC 2135.390
Pseudo-R² (fixed effects) 0.292
Pseudo-R² (total) 0.345
Fixed Effects
exp(Est.) S.E. z val. p
(Intercept) 6.706 0.056 33.916 0.000
settlementsNear 1.468 0.034 11.296 0.000
subunitCarmel 1.086 0.073 1.124 0.261
subunitGalilee 0.819 0.074 -2.702 0.007
cos_td_rad_c 1.145 0.063 2.147 0.032
Random Effects
Group Parameter Std. Dev.
site (Intercept) 0.098
Grouping Variables
Group # groups ICC
site 16 0.010
## Confidence intervals for merMod models is an experimental feature. The
## intervals reflect only the variance of the fixed effects, not the random
## effects.

## Confidence intervals for merMod models is an experimental feature. The
## intervals reflect only the variance of the fixed effects, not the random
## effects.

statistically significant lower richness in Galilee and far from settlements. No significant change in richness over time.

Near plots have on average 3.1412275 more species than far plots, which is 46.8453321 percent higher. Galilee plots have on average 1.5043163 less species than Carmel and Judean highland plots, which is 21.50837 percent lower.

geometric mean of abundance

Explore data. Exclude time of day because of high number of NAs.

## [1] "GEOMETRIC MEAN ABUNDANCE WITHOUT RARE SPECIES"
gma year_ct site settlements subunit td_sc cos_td_rad sin_td_rad
Min. : 0.000 Min. :0.0 Nir Etzion : 31 Far :224 Judean Highlands:149 Min. :-1.9882 Min. :-0.1671 Min. :-1.0000
1st Qu.: 2.075 1st Qu.:3.0 Ein Yaakov : 30 Near:220 Carmel :150 1st Qu.:-0.2713 1st Qu.: 0.5702 1st Qu.:-0.8215
Median : 2.555 Median :5.0 Givat Yearim : 30 NA Galilee :145 Median : 0.4918 Median : 0.8140 Median :-0.5808
Mean : 2.811 Mean :4.8 Givat Yeshayahu: 30 NA NA Mean : 0.3205 Mean : 0.7098 Mean :-0.5864
3rd Qu.: 3.252 3rd Qu.:7.0 Goren : 30 NA NA 3rd Qu.: 1.1023 3rd Qu.: 0.9413 3rd Qu.:-0.3375
Max. :10.301 Max. :9.0 Kerem Maharal : 30 NA NA Max. : 1.7127 Max. : 0.9976 Max. :-0.0688
NA NA (Other) :263 NA NA NA NA NA

Fit glm, compare gamma, gaussian (poisson inappropriate because response is not discrete)

Remove rows 211, 376, 408. Fit fixed and mixed models.

Mixed model converged

## Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
## Formula: gma ~ settlements * year_ct + subunit * year_ct + cos_td_rad +  
##     sin_td_rad + (1 | site)
##    Data: P.anal
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 1307.3
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.4491 -0.5895 -0.1466  0.4279  5.7748 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  site     (Intercept) 0.07917  0.2814  
##  Residual             1.04011  1.0199  
## Number of obs: 441, groups:  site, 16
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                         Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)              0.56769    0.62892   0.903
## settlementsNear          0.29906    0.17755   1.684
## year_ct                  0.01253    0.03226   0.388
## subunitCarmel            0.39222    0.28413   1.380
## subunitGalilee           0.08268    0.28571   0.289
## cos_td_rad               1.37461    0.43324   3.173
## sin_td_rad              -1.79442    0.52429  -3.423
## settlementsNear:year_ct -0.02317    0.03109  -0.745
## year_ct:subunitCarmel   -0.05681    0.03928  -1.446
## year_ct:subunitGalilee  -0.03377    0.04105  -0.823
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) sttlmN yer_ct sbntCr sbntGl cs_td_ sn_td_ sttN:_ yr_c:C
## settlmntsNr -0.152                                                        
## year_ct     -0.216  0.402                                                 
## subunitCrml -0.361 -0.003  0.341                                          
## subunitGall -0.392  0.007  0.331  0.524                                   
## cos_td_rad  -0.922  0.011  0.044  0.130  0.156                            
## sin_td_rad   0.883 -0.012  0.106 -0.176 -0.219 -0.862                     
## sttlmntsN:_  0.129 -0.837 -0.483  0.001 -0.005 -0.011  0.012              
## yr_ct:sbntC  0.343  0.000 -0.511 -0.659 -0.368 -0.182  0.266  0.005       
## yr_ct:sbntG  0.373 -0.007 -0.482 -0.351 -0.676 -0.214  0.308  0.008  0.533

perform stepwise model selection of gaussian model.

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## gma ~ settlements * year_ct + subunit * year_ct + cos_td_rad + 
##     sin_td_rad + (1 | site)
##                     npar    AIC
## <none>                   1300.3
## cos_td_rad             1 1308.3
## sin_td_rad             1 1310.2
## settlements:year_ct    1 1298.8
## year_ct:subunit        2 1298.4

drop year * subunit

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## gma ~ settlements * year_ct + subunit + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + 
##     (1 | site)
##                     npar    AIC
## <none>                   1298.4
## subunit                2 1295.5
## cos_td_rad             1 1305.3
## sin_td_rad             1 1306.9
## settlements:year_ct    1 1296.9

drop subunit

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## gma ~ settlements * year_ct + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + (1 | 
##     site)
##                     npar    AIC
## <none>                   1295.5
## cos_td_rad             1 1302.3
## sin_td_rad             1 1304.0
## settlements:year_ct    1 1294.0

drop year*settlements

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## gma ~ settlements + year_ct + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + (1 | 
##     site)
##             npar    AIC
## <none>           1294.0
## settlements    1 1295.9
## year_ct        1 1293.3
## cos_td_rad     1 1300.8
## sin_td_rad     1 1302.5

drop year.

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## gma ~ settlements + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + (1 | site)
##             npar    AIC
## <none>           1293.3
## settlements    1 1295.1
## cos_td_rad     1 1299.3
## sin_td_rad     1 1300.7

drop settlements.

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## gma ~ cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + (1 | site)
##            npar    AIC
## <none>          1295.1
## cos_td_rad    1 1301.1
## sin_td_rad    1 1302.3

Only time of year remains. This is the final model:

## Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
## Formula: gma ~ cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + (1 | site)
##    Data: P.anal
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 1289.7
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.1686 -0.6028 -0.1680  0.4155  5.9316 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  site     (Intercept) 0.07121  0.2668  
##  Residual             1.04627  1.0229  
## Number of obs: 441, groups:  site, 16
## 
## Fixed effects:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)   1.1366     0.5452   2.085
## cos_td_rad    1.1853     0.4181   2.835
## sin_td_rad   -1.3341     0.4381  -3.045
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##            (Intr) cs_td_
## cos_td_rad -0.968       
## sin_td_rad  0.960 -0.903

Not a great fit. None of the factors of interest (year, subunit, settlements) are significant.

Observations 441
Dependent variable gma
Type Mixed effects linear regression
AIC 1299.67
BIC 1320.12
Pseudo-R² (fixed effects) 0.02
Pseudo-R² (total) 0.08
Fixed Effects
Est. S.E. t val. d.f. p
(Intercept) 1.14 0.55 2.07 407.53 0.04
cos_td_rad 1.19 0.42 2.81 429.81 0.01
sin_td_rad -1.33 0.44 -3.02 418.77 0.00
p values calculated using Kenward-Roger standard errors and d.f.
Random Effects
Group Parameter Std. Dev.
site (Intercept) 0.27
Residual 1.02
Grouping Variables
Group # groups ICC
site 16 0.06

abundance

Explore data

## [1] "ABUNDANCE WITHOUT RARE SPECIES"
abundance year_ct site settlements subunit td_sc cos_td_rad sin_td_rad
Min. : 0.00 Min. :0.0 Nir Etzion : 31 Far :224 Judean Highlands:149 Min. :-1.9882 Min. :-0.1671 Min. :-1.0000
1st Qu.: 15.75 1st Qu.:3.0 Ein Yaakov : 30 Near:220 Carmel :150 1st Qu.:-0.2713 1st Qu.: 0.5702 1st Qu.:-0.8215
Median : 24.00 Median :5.0 Givat Yearim : 30 NA Galilee :145 Median : 0.4918 Median : 0.8140 Median :-0.5808
Mean : 30.45 Mean :4.8 Givat Yeshayahu: 30 NA NA Mean : 0.3205 Mean : 0.7098 Mean :-0.5864
3rd Qu.: 36.00 3rd Qu.:7.0 Goren : 30 NA NA 3rd Qu.: 1.1023 3rd Qu.: 0.9413 3rd Qu.:-0.3375
Max. :345.00 Max. :9.0 Kerem Maharal : 30 NA NA Max. : 1.7127 Max. : 0.9976 Max. :-0.0688
NA NA (Other) :263 NA NA NA NA NA

Some outliers with total abundance >100. Examine:

##             subunit             point_name            datetime monitors_name
## 1: Judean Highlands  Givat Yeshayahu Far 2 2017-04-20 10:20:00   Eran Banker
## 2: Judean Highlands Givat Yeshayahu Near 1 2017-04-20 06:25:00   Eran Banker
## 3: Judean Highlands Givat Yeshayahu Near 2 2017-04-20 06:50:00   Eran Banker
## 4: Judean Highlands Givat Yeshayahu Near 3 2017-04-20 07:15:00   Eran Banker
## 5: Judean Highlands          Aderet Near 2 2019-05-26 06:52:00   Eran Banker
## 6:           Carmel       Beit Oren Near 1 2019-04-19 07:49:00         Other
## 7:           Carmel       Beit Oren Near 3 2019-04-19 07:35:00         Other
## 8:           Carmel   Kerem Maharal Near 3 2021-04-17 07:41:00   Eliraz Dvir
## 9:           Carmel      Nir Etzion Far 11 2021-04-23 07:24:00   Eliraz Dvir
##    richness       gma abundance
## 1:       11  5.356635       115
## 2:       13  9.170560       140
## 3:       14  7.652753       138
## 4:       16  9.098580       221
## 5:       15  5.408017       106
## 6:        5  8.043088       129
## 7:       10  7.338970       254
## 8:       11 10.301194       345
## 9:        9  3.066833       119

Exclude 3 plots with high abundance (>150) to improve model fit.

PHI>1, hence choose negative binomial. Fit fixed and mixed models. Choose mixed model if possible, otherwise choose a model with fixed-effects only.

## Warning in checkConv(attr(opt, "derivs"), opt$par, ctrl = control$checkConv, :
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.00266732 (tol = 0.002, component 1)

mixed model converged. Perform stepwise model selection of mixed model.

## Warning in checkConv(attr(opt, "derivs"), opt$par, ctrl = control$checkConv, :
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.0044521 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## abundance ~ settlements * year_ct + subunit * year_ct + cos_td_rad + 
##     sin_td_rad + (1 | site)
##                     npar    AIC
## <none>                   3678.7
## cos_td_rad             1 3696.7
## sin_td_rad             1 3699.1
## settlements:year_ct    1 3676.7
## year_ct:subunit        2 3681.6

drop settlements X year because \(\Delta AIC<2\)

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## abundance ~ settlements + subunit * year_ct + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + 
##     (1 | site)
##                 npar    AIC
## <none>               3676.7
## settlements        1 3772.0
## cos_td_rad         1 3694.8
## sin_td_rad         1 3697.2
## subunit:year_ct    2 3679.7

drop year*subunit

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## abundance ~ settlements + subunit + year_ct + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + 
##     (1 | site)
##             npar    AIC
## <none>           3679.7
## settlements    1 3773.3
## subunit        2 3685.2
## year_ct        1 3678.2
## cos_td_rad     1 3695.2
## sin_td_rad     1 3697.6

drop year

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## abundance ~ settlements + subunit + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad + 
##     (1 | site)
##             npar    AIC
## <none>           3678.2
## settlements    1 3772.0
## subunit        2 3683.8
## cos_td_rad     1 3693.2
## sin_td_rad     1 3697.8

subunit, settlement and time of year remain. The final model:

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: Negative Binomial(3.3101)  ( log )
## Formula: abundance ~ settlements + subunit + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad +  
##     (1 | site)
##    Data: P.anal
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   3678.2   3711.0  -1831.1   3662.2      436 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -1.7208 -0.7138 -0.2446  0.3842  9.2005 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  site   (Intercept) 0.01938  0.1392  
## Number of obs: 444, groups:  site, 16
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)      1.67516    0.32509   5.153 2.57e-07 ***
## settlementsNear  0.54579    0.05556   9.823  < 2e-16 ***
## subunitCarmel    0.16956    0.11089   1.529   0.1262    
## subunitGalilee  -0.22714    0.11015  -2.062   0.0392 *  
## cos_td_rad       1.02590    0.24294   4.223 2.41e-05 ***
## sin_td_rad      -1.16744    0.24800  -4.708 2.51e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) sttlmN sbntCr sbntGl cs_td_
## settlmntsNr -0.111                            
## subunitCrml -0.214  0.020                     
## subunitGall -0.226  0.033  0.505              
## cos_td_rad  -0.946  0.019  0.050  0.043       
## sin_td_rad   0.938 -0.017 -0.032 -0.062 -0.903
## $site
##                 (Intercept)
## Abirim          -0.11137155
## Aderet           0.16235427
## Beit Oren        0.11023799
## Ein Yaakov       0.01625407
## Givat Yearim    -0.19886986
## Givat Yeshayahu  0.17665857
## Goren           -0.01370126
## Iftach           0.07733150
## Kerem Maharal    0.13673950
## Kfar Shamai      0.00869344
## Margaliot        0.02457356
## Nehusha         -0.07214524
## Nir Etzion      -0.15864707
## Ofer            -0.04190665
## Ramat Raziel    -0.06677795
## Yagur           -0.04538202
## 
## with conditional variances for "site"
## $site

Not a great fit, high residuals. center time of year variables, highly correlated with intercept.

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: Negative Binomial(3.3101)  ( log )
## Formula: abundance ~ settlements + subunit + cos_td_rad_c + sin_td_rad_c +  
##     (1 | site)
##    Data: P.anal
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   3678.2   3711.0  -1831.1   3662.2      436 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -1.7208 -0.7138 -0.2446  0.3842  9.2005 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  site   (Intercept) 0.01938  0.1392  
## Number of obs: 444, groups:  site, 16
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)      3.08791    0.08411  36.711  < 2e-16 ***
## settlementsNear  0.54578    0.05556   9.823  < 2e-16 ***
## subunitCarmel    0.16956    0.11088   1.529   0.1262    
## subunitGalilee  -0.22714    0.11015  -2.062   0.0392 *  
## cos_td_rad_c     1.02590    0.24293   4.223 2.41e-05 ***
## sin_td_rad_c    -1.16743    0.24798  -4.708 2.51e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) sttlmN sbntCr sbntGl cs_t__
## settlmntsNr -0.358                            
## subunitCrml -0.669  0.020                     
## subunitGall -0.678  0.033  0.505              
## cos_td_rd_c -0.047  0.019  0.050  0.043       
## sin_td_rd_c  0.044 -0.017 -0.032 -0.062 -0.903

Interpretation of abundance model:

Observations 444
Dependent variable abundance
Type Mixed effects generalized linear model
Family Negative Binomial(3.3101)
Link log
AIC 3678.232
BIC 3710.998
Pseudo-R² (fixed effects) 0.692
Pseudo-R² (total) 0.804
Fixed Effects
exp(Est.) S.E. z val. p
(Intercept) 21.931 0.084 36.711 0.000
settlementsNear 1.726 0.056 9.823 0.000
subunitCarmel 1.185 0.111 1.529 0.126
subunitGalilee 0.797 0.110 -2.062 0.039
cos_td_rad_c 2.790 0.243 4.223 0.000
sin_td_rad_c 0.311 0.248 -4.708 0.000
Random Effects
Group Parameter Std. Dev.
site (Intercept) 0.139
Grouping Variables
Group # groups ICC
site 16 0.052
## Confidence intervals for merMod models is an experimental feature. The
## intervals reflect only the variance of the fixed effects, not the random
## effects.

## Confidence intervals for merMod models is an experimental feature. The
## intervals reflect only the variance of the fixed effects, not the random
## effects.

significantly lower abundance in Galilee subunit and far from settlements. No significant temporal trend.

Near plots have on average 15.9211288 more individuals than far plots, which is 72.5960983 percent higher. Galilee plots have on average 6.4825389 less species than Carmel and Judean highland plots, which is 27.0586105 percent lower.

community analysis using package MVabund

## Overlapping points were shifted along the y-axis to make them visible.
## 
##  PIPING TO 2nd MVFACTOR
## Only the variables Curruca.melanocephala, Turdus.merula, Streptopelia.decaocto, Passer.domesticus, Pycnonotus.xanthopygos, Columba.livia, Parus.major, Garrulus.glandarius, Cinnyris.osea, Spilopelia.senegalensis, Cecropis.daurica, Chloris.chloris were included in the plot 
## (the variables with highest total abundance).

## Overlapping points were shifted along the y-axis to make them visible.
## 
##  PIPING TO 2nd MVFACTOR
## Only the variables Curruca.melanocephala, Turdus.merula, Streptopelia.decaocto, Passer.domesticus, Pycnonotus.xanthopygos, Columba.livia, Parus.major, Garrulus.glandarius, Cinnyris.osea, Spilopelia.senegalensis, Cecropis.daurica, Chloris.chloris were included in the plot 
## (the variables with highest total abundance).

There are few observations with counts of >60. Examine these:

##              point_name            datetime             SciName monitors_name
## 1: Kerem Maharal Near 3 2021-04-17 07:41:00     Chloris chloris   Eliraz Dvir
## 2: Kerem Maharal Near 3 2021-04-17 07:41:00 Garrulus glandarius   Eliraz Dvir
## 3:     Beit Oren Near 3 2019-04-19 07:35:00     Curruca curruca         Other
## 4:     Beit Oren Near 1 2019-04-19 07:49:00     Curruca curruca         Other
##    notes rad_0_20 rad_20_100 rad_100_250 rad_over_250
## 1:              0         80           0            0
## 2:              0          0         150            0
## 3:  <NA>       12         30         100            0
## 4:  <NA>       14         35          50            0

G. glandarius observation seems highly irregular. Remove altogether, might be a mistake. C. curruca observations are prbably due to migration waves. Remove.

start model specification:

##        nb        po 
##  977.4156 1377.6948
## [1] "POISSON"

## [1] "NEGATIVE BINOMIAL"

negative binomial model is better than poisson according to residuals and AIC comparison.

##        nb        po       nb1 
##  977.4156 1377.6948  966.7131

The addition of the explanatory variable ‘site’ is somewhat improving the AIC of the model. Prefer to exclude site, for simplification. stepwise selection of model:

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## spp_no_rare ~ settlements * year_ct + subunit * year_ct + cos_td_rad + 
##     sin_td_rad
##                     Df   AIC
## <none>                 23458
## cos_td_rad          24 23515
## sin_td_rad          24 23529
## settlements:year_ct 24 23439
## year_ct:subunit     48 23489

drop settlements X year.

## Single term deletions
## 
## Model:
## spp_no_rare ~ settlements + subunit * year_ct + cos_td_rad + 
##     sin_td_rad
##                 Df   AIC
## <none>             23439
## settlements     24 24254
## cos_td_rad      24 23497
## sin_td_rad      24 23513
## subunit:year_ct 48 23481

final model includes settlements, year, subunit, subunit X year, sampling time of year.

## 
## Test statistics:
##                        wald value Pr(>wald)    
## (Intercept)                12.136     0.001 ***
## settlementsNear            29.207     0.001 ***
## subunitCarmel              10.785     0.001 ***
## subunitGalilee              7.032     0.034 *  
## year_ct                     6.666     0.025 *  
## cos_td_rad                 10.598     0.001 ***
## sin_td_rad                 11.410     0.001 ***
## subunitCarmel:year_ct       7.600     0.003 ** 
## subunitGalilee:year_ct      7.879     0.005 ** 
## --- 
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 
## 
## Test statistic:  39.68, p-value: 0.001 
## Arguments:
##  Test statistics calculated assuming response assumed to be uncorrelated 
##  P-value calculated using 999 resampling iterations via pit.trap resampling (to account for correlation in testing).
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model: spp_no_rare ~ settlements + subunit * year_ct + cos_td_rad + sin_td_rad
## 
## Multivariate test:
##                 Res.Df Df.diff   Dev Pr(>Dev)   
## (Intercept)        443                          
## settlements        442       1 770.4     0.01 **
## subunit            440       2 426.6     0.01 **
## year_ct            439       1 143.4     0.01 **
## cos_td_rad         438       1  46.9     0.03 * 
## sin_td_rad         437       1 109.1     0.01 **
## subunit:year_ct    435       2 137.4     0.01 **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Univariate Tests:
##                 Acridotheres.tristis          Alectoris.chukar         
##                                  Dev Pr(>Dev)              Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                                                            
## settlements                   79.707     0.01           38.366     0.01
## subunit                       39.138     0.01           10.607     0.12
## year_ct                       29.844     0.01            9.298     0.05
## cos_td_rad                     3.002     0.87            2.276     0.94
## sin_td_rad                      5.64     0.37            0.596     0.99
## subunit:year_ct                8.217     0.32            2.436     0.96
##                 Carduelis.carduelis          Cecropis.daurica         
##                                 Dev Pr(>Dev)              Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                                                           
## settlements                    8.13     0.07           33.414     0.01
## subunit                      21.019     0.01            1.066     0.89
## year_ct                       6.527     0.25            1.257     0.98
## cos_td_rad                    0.389     1.00            0.127     1.00
## sin_td_rad                     1.61     0.96            3.044     0.86
## subunit:year_ct              12.307     0.11             0.41     0.98
##                 Chloris.chloris          Cinnyris.osea          Columba.livia
##                             Dev Pr(>Dev)           Dev Pr(>Dev)           Dev
## (Intercept)                                                                  
## settlements               30.55     0.01        41.948     0.01         6.276
## subunit                   0.613     0.89        17.867     0.01        19.317
## year_ct                   5.072     0.44         3.939     0.64        20.916
## cos_td_rad                0.072     1.00         1.651     1.00          0.01
## sin_td_rad                0.112     0.99          2.01     0.95        11.564
## subunit:year_ct          20.167     0.01        12.677     0.11         2.764
##                          Corvus.cornix          Corvus.monedula         
##                 Pr(>Dev)           Dev Pr(>Dev)             Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                                                             
## settlements         0.13        22.932     0.01           0.428     0.57
## subunit             0.01        47.477     0.01          22.714     0.01
## year_ct             0.01         0.695     1.00           0.301     1.00
## cos_td_rad          1.00         1.013     1.00           0.184     1.00
## sin_td_rad          0.04         0.157     0.99           0.053     0.99
## subunit:year_ct     0.96         7.109     0.40           5.316     0.77
##                 Curruca.curruca          Curruca.melanocephala         
##                             Dev Pr(>Dev)                   Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                                                            
## settlements               2.096     0.57                 21.24     0.01
## subunit                  27.501     0.01                41.067     0.01
## year_ct                  13.288     0.02                 0.747     1.00
## cos_td_rad                 7.65     0.12                   0.3     1.00
## sin_td_rad                4.442     0.59                 0.429     0.99
## subunit:year_ct           0.001     0.98                 9.877     0.16
##                 Dendrocopos.syriacus          Falco.tinnunculus         
##                                  Dev Pr(>Dev)               Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                                                             
## settlements                    9.285     0.04             1.849     0.57
## subunit                        3.648     0.65             9.122     0.16
## year_ct                        0.002     1.00             0.543     1.00
## cos_td_rad                     1.417     1.00             0.078     1.00
## sin_td_rad                      3.35     0.86             0.641     0.99
## subunit:year_ct                0.232     0.98             5.248     0.77
##                 Garrulus.glandarius          Parus.major         
##                                 Dev Pr(>Dev)         Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                                                      
## settlements                   3.502     0.37       3.908     0.37
## subunit                      24.625     0.01      25.606     0.01
## year_ct                       4.924     0.46       0.176     1.00
## cos_td_rad                    1.156     1.00       3.376     0.82
## sin_td_rad                    1.081     0.99       7.701     0.16
## subunit:year_ct               5.242     0.77       6.652     0.53
##                 Passer.domesticus          Prinia.gracilis         
##                               Dev Pr(>Dev)             Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                                                        
## settlements               166.539     0.01          48.787     0.01
## subunit                    21.305     0.01           1.864     0.88
## year_ct                     1.781     0.91          16.036     0.01
## cos_td_rad                  0.485     1.00           0.633     1.00
## sin_td_rad                  2.962     0.86           1.004     0.99
## subunit:year_ct             2.283     0.96          13.996     0.05
##                 Psittacula.krameri          Pycnonotus.xanthopygos         
##                                Dev Pr(>Dev)                    Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                                                                
## settlements                 15.594     0.01                 45.339     0.01
## subunit                     14.393     0.04                  25.29     0.01
## year_ct                      1.082     0.99                   2.87     0.81
## cos_td_rad                   0.793     1.00                 11.394     0.03
## sin_td_rad                   1.724     0.96                  0.499     0.99
## subunit:year_ct              3.863     0.84                   3.75     0.84
##                 Spilopelia.senegalensis          Streptopelia.decaocto         
##                                     Dev Pr(>Dev)                   Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                                                                    
## settlements                     157.013     0.01                 1.955     0.57
## subunit                          27.046     0.01                12.168     0.04
## year_ct                           2.224     0.84                 0.068     1.00
## cos_td_rad                        0.333     1.00                 6.672     0.22
## sin_td_rad                        0.603     0.99                14.008     0.01
## subunit:year_ct                   4.692     0.77                 1.683     0.96
##                 Streptopelia.turtur          Troglodytes.troglodytes         
##                                 Dev Pr(>Dev)                     Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                                                                  
## settlements                   1.175     0.57                  26.472     0.01
## subunit                       6.566     0.35                   4.411     0.55
## year_ct                      18.089     0.01                   0.576     1.00
## cos_td_rad                    3.045     0.87                    0.48     1.00
## sin_td_rad                    1.847     0.95                  10.786     0.07
## subunit:year_ct               1.887     0.96                   5.003     0.77
##                 Turdus.merula         
##                           Dev Pr(>Dev)
## (Intercept)                           
## settlements             3.926     0.37
## subunit                 2.142     0.88
## year_ct                 3.137     0.78
## cos_td_rad              0.347     1.00
## sin_td_rad              33.19     0.01
## subunit:year_ct         1.539     0.96
## Arguments:
##  Test statistics calculated assuming uncorrelated response (for faster computation) 
## P-value calculated using 99 iterations via PIT-trap resampling.

Factors settlements, year, subunit, subunit X year, time of year and site have a statistically significant effect on community composition. settlements X year nearly significant.

## Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.
## [[1]]

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## [[1]]

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Significant negative temporal effect on graceful prinia, European turtle dove and red-rumped swallow; strong positive effect on common myna; positive effect on chukar, greenfinch and pigeon. Significant effect of settlement proximity: most of the synanthrope / invasive species are near settlements.

##            (Intercept)        settlementsNear          subunitCarmel 
##           -1.639076480            1.570553557            0.648027300 
##         subunitGalilee                year_ct             cos_td_rad 
##            1.112874781            0.014214819            0.259770952 
##             sin_td_rad  subunitCarmel:year_ct subunitGalilee:year_ct 
##            0.004837119           -0.074592027           -0.277566041
##             (Intercept)         settlementsNear                 year_ct 
##              0.00614275              0.93149939             -0.18209987 
##           subunitCarmel          subunitGalilee              cos_td_rad 
##              0.27673463             -0.09600060             -0.20240622 
##              sin_td_rad settlementsNear:year_ct 
##              0.72573393              0.14416050

##            (Intercept)        settlementsNear          subunitCarmel 
##            -4.14079167            -0.31938110             1.08645580 
##         subunitGalilee                year_ct             cos_td_rad 
##             0.08358363            -0.13956880             2.85413650 
##             sin_td_rad  subunitCarmel:year_ct subunitGalilee:year_ct 
##            -1.72994546            -0.07672922             0.04867093
##             (Intercept)         settlementsNear                 year_ct 
##             -4.07155881             -0.27683920             -0.14582746 
##           subunitCarmel          subunitGalilee              cos_td_rad 
##              0.81205833              0.27579877              2.82345513 
##              sin_td_rad settlementsNear:year_ct 
##             -1.68343705             -0.01017195

##            (Intercept)        settlementsNear          subunitCarmel 
##            -4.66317068             5.01435748            -2.07841381 
##         subunitGalilee                year_ct             cos_td_rad 
##            -0.05133138            -0.19263807             1.33066601 
##             sin_td_rad  subunitCarmel:year_ct subunitGalilee:year_ct 
##            -2.02686309             0.17563038             0.09562804
##             (Intercept)         settlementsNear                 year_ct 
##             -4.93430704              4.64802831             -0.19184173 
##           subunitCarmel          subunitGalilee              cos_td_rad 
##             -1.25853844              0.39004785              1.45064693 
##              sin_td_rad settlementsNear:year_ct 
##             -2.30451877              0.08422191

##            (Intercept)        settlementsNear          subunitCarmel 
##            -5.35172149             3.06499054            -0.51473644 
##         subunitGalilee                year_ct             cos_td_rad 
##            -8.97249477             0.07641756             0.96998632 
##             sin_td_rad  subunitCarmel:year_ct subunitGalilee:year_ct 
##            -2.74987999             0.08548671             0.82610687
##             (Intercept)         settlementsNear                 year_ct 
##             -6.67914086              3.99477207              0.27139139 
##           subunitCarmel          subunitGalilee              cos_td_rad 
##             -0.07163618             -2.84080140              1.05294894 
##              sin_td_rad settlementsNear:year_ct 
##             -2.87492784             -0.14351643