A Closer Look at Declining NAEP U.S. History and Civic Scores

Author

Sadie Sadler

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library(readxl)
library(kableExtra)


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WHAT IS NAEP

“The National Assessment of Educational Progress is the largest continuing and nationally representative assessment of what U.S. students know and can do in various subjects”

The U.S. History Assessment

2022 Assessment data was collected from January to March 2022
Assesses a sample of 8,000 eighth graders from 410 schools
The assessment is 60 minutes
The data is reported in 3 ways
- average scores
- percentiles
- NAEP achievement levels (set by the NAEP Governing Board)
The assessment is scored on a scale from 0 to 500
Assesses students’ knowledge and skills related to America’s past
8 Time Periods
- Beginnings to 1607
- Colonization, Settlement, and Communities (1607–1763)
- The Revolution and the New Nation (1763–1815)
- Expansion and Reform (1801–1861)
- Crisis of the Union: Civil War and Reconstruction (1850–1877)
- The Development of Modern America (1865–1920)
- Modern America and the World Wars (1914–1945)
- Contemporary America (1945 to the present)
4 Themes
- Democracy: Change and continuity in American democracy
- Culture: Gathering and interactions of peoples, cultures, and ideas
- Technology: Economic and technological changes and their relationship to society, ideas, and the environment
- World Role: The changing role of America in the world
To reach the ‘Proficient’ achievement level, students must be able to:
- Explain the significance and the connection of people, places, events, ideas, and documents
- Recognize opportunities, perspectives, and challenges of a diverse population
- Understand historical themes while citing evidence from primary and secondary sources to support their conclusions

The Civics Assessment

2022 Assessment data was collected from January to March 2022
Assesses a sample of 7,800 eighth graders from 410 schools
The assessment is 60 minutes
The data is reported in 3 ways
- average scores
- percentiles
- NAEP achievement levels (set by the NAEP Governing Board)
The assessment is scored on a scale from 0 to 300
Assessed how students can put their knowledge of civics into practice
Also provides an opportunity to see how well America’s children are to become full participants in American democracy
5 Content Areas
- Civic life, politics, and government
- Foundations of American political systems
- The purposes, values and principles of American democracy
- The relationship of America to other nations
- The roles of citizens in American democracy
To reach the ‘Proficient’ achievement level, students must be able to understand and explain:
- Differences between government and civil society
- Discrepancies between American ideals and reality
- The separation and sharing powers among the branches of government
- How citizens can influence governments
- Events that have international consequences

THE DATA

Highlights

Since the tests were first administered in the 1990s, scores progressed up until 2014, and then that progess was lost
In 2022, scores declined in both U.S. history and civics for the second time since 2014
In U.S. history
- The average scale score decreased by 5 points to 258 from 2018 to 2022
- In 2022, only 13% of students reached NAEP’s ‘at or above proficient’ achievement level, down 2% from 2014
In civics
- The average scale score decreased by 3 points to 150 from 2018 to 2022
- In 2022, only 22% of students reached NAEP’s ‘at or above proficient’ achievement level, down 2% from 2014
U.S. history and civics have the lowest percent of students ‘at or above proficient’ out of all assessed subjects (mathematics, reading, science, technology and engineering literacy, writing)

U.S. History Average Scale Scores

#read in the history scale score Excel file 
historyss <- read_excel("History.ScaleScore.Xls", 
                    range = "A9:D17")

#display history scale score data as a table 
kable(historyss, digits = 0) |>
  kable_styling()

Year	Jurisdiction	All students	Average scale score
2022	National	All students	258
2018	National	All students	263
2014	National	All students	267
2010	National	All students	266
2006	National	All students	263
2001	National	All students	260
2001	National	All students	262
1994	National	All students	259

#display history scale score data as a graph 
ggplot(
  data = historyss,
  mapping = aes(x = Year, y = `Average scale score`)) +
  geom_line() +
  labs(
    title = "Trend in U.S. History Average Scale Scores",
    subtitle = "NAEP: 1994-2022",
    y = "Scale Score"
  ) +
  ylim(200, 330) +
geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = 252, color = "Basic"), linetype=2) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = 294, color = "Proficient"), linetype=2) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = 327, color = "Advanced"), linetype=2)

Note: Starting in 2001, accommodations were permitted, which accounts for the two scale scores in that year.

From 1994 to 2014, the average scale score for the NAEP U.S. History assessment steadily increased. From 1994 to 2010, the average scale score increased by 3 points each year the assessment was done. But, from 2010 to 2014, the increase was only by 1 point. Then, from 2014 to 2022, scores decreased. From 2014 to 2018, the average scale score decreased by 4 points, and from 2018 to 2022, the score decreased by 5 points, lower than the average scale score in 1994.

U.S. History Score of Percentiles

#read in the history percentiles Excel file 
historyp <- read_excel("History.Percentiles.Xls", 
                        range = "A9:H17")

#display history percentiles data as a table 
kable(historyp, digits = 0) |>
  kable_styling()

Year	Jurisdiction	All students	10th percentile	25th percentile	50th percentile	75th percentile	90th percentile
2022	National	All students	215	237	260	282	299
2018	National	All students	222	243	265	285	301
2014	National	All students	229	248	269	288	303
2010	National	All students	227	246	267	286	302
2006	National	All students	221	243	265	285	302
2001	National	All students	216	239	262	284	302
2001	National	All students	220	241	264	285	303
1994	National	All students	217	239	261	282	299

#display history percentiles data as a graph
ggplot(
  data = historyp) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `10th percentile`, color="10th percentile")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `25th percentile`, color="25th percentile")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `50th percentile`, color="50th percentile")) +
   geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `75th percentile`, color="75th percentile")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `90th percentile`, color="90th percentile")) +
  labs(
    title = "Trend in U.S. History Percentiles",
    subtitle = "NAEP: 1994 - 2022",
    y = 'Score of Percentile'
  )+
  ylim(200, 330)+
geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = 252, color = "Basic"), linetype=2) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = 294, color = "Proficient"), linetype=2) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = 327, color = "Advanced"), linetype=2)

Note: Starting in 2001, accommodations were permitted, which accounts for the two scores in that year for each percentile.

Similar trends as with the average scale scores can be seen for each percentile: from 1994 to 2014 the score marking each percentile increased. But from 2014 to 2022 the score decreased.

From 1994 to 2014, the score marking the 50th percentile steadily increased by 8 points total. But, in the 8 years between 2014 and 2022, the score decreased by 9 points, 1 point lower than the score in 1994.

The percentile with the most drastic changes is the 10th percentile. From 1994 to 2014, the score marking the 10th percentile increased by 12 points. But from 2014 to 2022, the score decreased by 14 points, two points lower than the score in 1994.

The percentile with the least changes is the 90th percentile. The score in 1994 is the same as in 2022. From 1994 to 2014, the score increased by 4 points, and then decreased by 4 points from 2014 to 2022.

U.S. History Percent at Achievement Levels

#read in the history achievement levels Excel file 
historyal <- read_excel("History.ALevels.Xls", 
                       range = "A9:G17")

#display history achievement levels data as a table 
kable(historyal, digits = 0) |>
  kable_styling()

Year	Jurisdiction	All students	below Basic	at or above Basic	at or above Proficient	at Advanced
2022	National	All students	40	60	13	1
2018	National	All students	34	66	15	1
2014	National	All students	29	71	18	1
2010	National	All students	31	69	17	1
2006	National	All students	35	65	17	1
2001	National	All students	38	62	16	1
2001	National	All students	36	64	17	2
1994	National	All students	39	61	14	1

#display history achievement levels data as a graph
ggplot(
  data = historyal) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `below Basic`, color="below Basic")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `at or above Basic`, color="at or above Basic")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `at or above Proficient`, color="at or above Proficient")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `at Advanced`, color="at Advanced")) +
  labs(
    title = "Trend in U.S. History Achievement Levels",
    subtitle = "NAEP: 1994 - 2022",
    y = 'Percent at Achievement Level'
  )  +
  ylim(0, 100)

Note: Starting in 2001, accommodations were permitted, which accounts for the two scores in that year for each achievement level.

Following the trends seen for the average scale score and the scores marking each percentile, the percentage of students who reached the ‘at or above basic’ and ‘at or above proficient’ achievement level was increasing from 1994 to 2014. But starting in 2014, the percentages sharply decreased.

From 1994 to 2014, the percentage of students falling in ‘below basic’ decreased by 10 points, but then increased by 11 from 2014-2022, 1 percent greater than in 1994. Accordingly, from 1994 to 2014, the percentage of students falling in ‘at or above basic’ increased by 10 , but then decreased by 11 from 2014-2022, 1 percent lower than in 1994.

Similarly, from 1994-2014, the percentage of students falling ‘at or above proficient’ increased by 4, but then decreased by 5 from 2014-2022, 1 percent lower than in 1994.

The percentage of students falling in ‘at advanced’ remained constant at 1 percent from 1994-2022.

U.S. History Summary

In summary, scores for the NAEP U.S. History assessment increased in the 20 years from 1994 to 2014. Students across the country were greatly progressing. But that progress came to a halt in 2014. In the 8 years from 2014 to 2022, scores drastically decreased to lower than in 1994.

Civics Average Scale Score

#read in the civics scale score Excel file 
civicsss <- read_excel("Civics.ScaleScore.Xls", 
                        range = "A9:D15")

#display civics scale score data as a table 
kable(civicsss, digits = 0) |>
  kable_styling()

Year	Jurisdiction	All students	Average scale score
2022	National	All students	150
2018	National	All students	153
2014	National	All students	154
2010	National	All students	151
2006	National	All students	150
1998	National	All students	150

#display civics scale score data as a graph
ggplot(
  data = civicsss,
  mapping = aes(x = Year, y = `Average scale score`)) +
  geom_line() +
  labs(
    title = "Trend in Civics Average Scale Scores",
    subtitle = "NAEP: 1998-2022",
    y = "Scale Score"
  )  +
  ylim(100, 200)

From 1998 to 2014, there was only minor increases, and from 2014 to 2022, there was similar minor decreases for the NAEP Civics assessment. From 1998 to 2006, there was no change, from 2006 to 2010, the score increased by 1 point, and from 2010 to 2014, the score increased by 3 points. Then, similarly to scores for the U.S. History assessment, the score decreased by 1 point from 2014 to 2018, and then by 3 points from 2018 to 2022, back to the average scale score of 150 in 1998.

Civics Score of Percentiles

#read in the civics percentiles Excel file 
civicsp <- read_excel("Civics.Percentiles.Xls", 
                       range = "A9:H15")

#display history percentiles data as a table 
kable(civicsp, digits = 0) |>
  kable_styling()

Year	Jurisdiction	All students	10th percentile	25th percentile	50th percentile	75th percentile	90th percentile
2022	National	All students	104	128	153	175	192
2018	National	All students	107	131	156	177	193
2014	National	All students	110	133	157	177	193
2010	National	All students	106	131	155	175	191
2006	National	All students	102	128	154	175	191
1998	National	All students	103	128	153	175	192

#display history percentiles data as a graph
ggplot(
  data = civicsp) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `10th percentile`, color="10th percentile")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `25th percentile`, color="25th percentile")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `50th percentile`, color="50th percentile")) +
   geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `75th percentile`, color="75th percentile")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `90th percentile`, color="90th percentile")) +
  labs(
    title = "Trend in Civics Percentiles",
    subtitle = "NAEP: 1998 - 2022",
    y = 'Score of Percentile'
  )  + 
  ylim(100, 200)

The scores marking each percentile is more of a mixed bag:

In the 16 years between 1998 and 2014, the score marking the 50th percentile steadily increased by 4 points total. But, in the 8 years between 2014 and 2022, the score decreased 4 points back to its starting point.

Interestingly, for the 10th and 90th percentiles, the scores first decreased, then increased between 1998 and 2014. For the 10th percentile, the score decreased by 1 point from 1998 to 2006, and then increased by 4 points in 2010 and again in 2014. Then from 2014 to 2018, and from 2018 to 2022, the score decreased by 3 points. For the 90th percentile, the score also decreased by 1 point from 1998 to 2006 and remained the same in 2010. Then the score increased by 2 points in 2014. The score remained the same in 2018, and then decreased 1 point in 2022 back to its starting point in 1998.

As for the 75th percentile, the score remained the same from 1998 to 2010, and then increased by 2 points in 2014. Then, the score remained the same in 2018, and then decreased 2 points in 2022 back to its starting point in 1998.

And then for the 25th percentile, the score remained the same from 1998 to 2006. The score then increased by 3 points in 2010, and then increased by 2 points in 2014. As expected, the score then decreased by 2 points in 2018, and then decreased by 3 points in 2022.

Civics Percent at Achievement Levels

#read in the civics achievement levels Excel file 
civicsal <- read_excel("Civics.ALevels.Xls", 
                        range = "A9:G15")

#display civics achievement levels data as a table 
kable(civicsal, digits = 0) |>
  kable_styling()

Year	Jurisdiction	All students	below Basic	at or above Basic	at or above Proficient	at Advanced
2022	National	All students	31	69	22	2
2018	National	All students	27	73	24	2
2014	National	All students	26	74	23	2
2010	National	All students	28	72	22	1
2006	National	All students	30	70	22	2
1998	National	All students	30	70	22	2

#display civics achievement levels data as a graph
ggplot(
  data = civicsal) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `below Basic`, color="below Basic")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `at or above Basic`, color="at or above Basic")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `at or above Proficient`, color="at or above Proficient")) +
  geom_line(mapping = aes(x=Year, y = `at Advanced`, color="at Advanced")) +
  labs(
    title = "Trend in Civics Achievement Levels",
    subtitle = "NAEP: 1998 - 2022",
    y = 'Percent at Achievement Level'
  )   + 
  ylim(0, 80)

Similarly to the U.S. History assessment, the percentage of students who reached the ‘at or above basic’, achievement level was increasing from 1998 to 2014 but starting decreased after 2014. However, the percentage of students who reached the ‘at or above proficient’ level between 1998 and 2022 is much different.

For the percentage of students falling in ‘below basic’, the percentage remained the same from 1998 to 2006, decreased by 2 in 2010, and then decreased again by 2 in 2014. But then the percentage increased by 1 in 2018 and further increased by 4 in 2022. Accordingly, for the percentage of students falling in ‘at or above basic’ the percentage remained the same from 1998 to 2006, increased by 2 in 2010, and then increased again by 2 in 2014. But then the percentage decreased by 1 in 2018 and further decreased by 4 in 2022.

The percentage of students ‘at or above proficient’ remained the same from 1998 to 2010, increased by 1 in 2014, and then surprisingly increased by 1 again in 2018. This is the only instance of progress from 2014 to 2018 between all civics and history scores. However, from 2018 to 2022, the percentage did decrease by 2.

As for the percentage of students ‘at advanced’, the percentage remained the same for all years except 2010 when the percentage decreased by 1.

Civics Summary

In summary, while scores for the NAEP Civics assessment had more fluctuation and stagnation than the U.S. History assessment, scores for civics generally increased in the 18 years from 1998 to 2014. But in the 8 years from 2014 to 2022, scores decreased to the same or lower than in 1998.

WHY ARE THESE DECLINES HAPPENING?

A de-emphasis on social studies instruction

Since the implementation of No Child Left Behind in the early 2000s and its update during the Obama administration, federal policy has required states to test students in reading and math, and periodically in science. No such mandate exists for social studies. Therefore, because tests generally drive what is taught, instructional time for social studies declined. A teacher from Arkansas is quoted as saying “at one point students received an hour of social studies each day. Now, they will be lucky if they get 30 minutes for social studies twice a week.”

In addition, in a survey conducted alongside the NAEP assessments, students who reported taking a class mainly focused in U.S. history declined from 72% in 2018 to 68% in 2022. Of this 68%, their average score declined by 4 points from 2018. Students who reported taking a class mainly focused in civics and/or U.S. government declined from 51% in 2018 to 49% in 2022. Also, the percentage of students who reported having a teacher whose primary responsibility is teaching U.S. history declined to 55% in 2022. The percentage of students who reported having a teacher whose primary responsibility is teaching civics declined 23% to 29% in 2022. Students also reported lower confidence in both their history and civics knowledge and skills in 2022 than in 2018.

Furthermore, in an increasingly technological world, pursuing careers in STEM related fields has become much more popular and is seen as more important than careers in social studies. Students are losing interest in history and civics.

Bad social studies instruction

Some experts claim that there is too much emphasis on teaching critical thinking skills, like differentiating between primary and secondary sources, and not enough emphasis on teaching background information and facts, including the fact that Africa is a continent, not a country. However, other experts claim the opposite. They say that there is too much emphasis on rote memorization of historical facts and not enough teaching in critical thinking skills.

Political divisiveness

In recent years, politicians have increasingly tried to limit instruction in history by banning books and censoring educators. There is currently a raging battle between conservative and liberal thinkers about what topics should be allowed to be taught in schools, particularly topics concerning race and slavery. Also, because of such fierce political polarization, schools, teachers, and students are becoming more fearful to engage in historical and civic topics at all.

COVID-19 Pandemic

In January, 2023, a research paper published in the journal Nature Human Behavior found children lost about 35% of a normal school years’ worth of learning during the pandemic. Social studies took an even bigger hit than other subjects because schools focused mainly on saving losses in reading and math.

WHY ARE THESE DECLINES BAD?

“A base knowledge in history and civics is critical for students to become engaged, informed citizens, particularly amid misinformation on social media platforms.” Especially with decreasing trust in institutions, but increasing young voter turnout and political engagement, America will move in the wrong direction if today’s students, who will soon be tomorrow’s leaders, do not have a basic understanding of history and civics, cannot differentiate between truth and lies, and are not democratically enlightened citizen. The future of America and American democracy is at stake.

WHAT CAN WE DO TO FIX THESE DECLINES?

Schools must improve the quantity of history and civics instruction
Schools must improve the quality of history and civics instruction, finding a balance between teaching facts and critical thinking skills
Politicians must stop using history and civics education as a tool in their political agendas
We must stop making social studies education so politically divisive to the point that it can no longer be discussed in schools at all
Teachers must actively work to reinvigorate student interest in social studies. This includes showing students how history and civics applies to the tangible world around them and how it affects their own lives.

WHY DID I CHOOSE TO DO THIS PROJECT?

One day, when I came across an article about declining history scores, it hit me! That would be the focus of my project. I then took a look at NAEP’s data and was immediately appalled and intrigued. So I decided I would combine my passion for history and researching with the work we have done in class regarding coding and analyzing NAEP data to create this quarto about declining NAEP U.S. history and civics scores. This project is especially meaningful to me because I want to become a history educator and I feel that there is a real history and civics education crisis happening that I want to help solve.

SOURCES

NAEP Resources:

https://www.nagb.gov/naep-subject-areas/civics/the-nations-report-card-2022-us-history-and-civics-release.html

https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/ushistory/

https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/civics/

https://www.nagb.gov/news-and-events/news-releases/2023/eighth-grade-scores-decline-in-civics-and-us-history.html

https://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/ushistory/achieve.aspx