Introduction

The Arab Spring, which began in 2011, had dramatic and far-reaching consequences on the political and economic landscapes of numerous Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) nations. Tourism was one industry that suffered substantial impacts as a result of the Arab Spring.

Tourism plays a key role in the MENA area, and its effect on these nations’ economy should not be overlooked. The economic implications are particularly important, as tourism encourages the expansion of the service sector, creates job possibilities, and promotes economic diversification, reducing reliance on conventional sectors. Furthermore, the importance of tourism extends beyond economic to cultural and geopolitical elements.

The reputation and image of destination countries is profoundly changed by tourism and facilitating cultural exchange. It fosters mutual enrichment between tourists and locals, promoting understanding and respect for different cultures. Tourism serves as a tool of intercultural diplomacy, contributing to enhanced bilateral and multilateral relations. Additionally, tourism aids in the preservation and revitalization of historical sites and traditional practices, instilling national pride and supporting sustainable development. Moreover, tourism has the potential to foster regional integration and cooperation, stimulating economic growth and creating a shared sense of identity among participating nations in the MENA region.

The aim of this research project is to examine the influence of the Arab Spring on tourism in specific countries, namely Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya. The hypothesis posits that countries that experienced a transition of government during the Arab Spring would observe a significant decline in tourist arrivals.

Analysis

To conduct our analysis, we will utilize data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators database. The chosen timeframe for our study spans from 2010 to 2012, allowing us to examine the changes in tourism levels before and after the Arab Spring. Having one year before and after 2011 provides us sufficient information to study the fluctuations in tourism in the midst of this phenomenon. The indicator “International tourism, number of arrivals” (ST.INT.ARVL) measures the number of tourists who visit a country other than their usual residence for a period not exceeding 12 months. These visitors are categorized as international inbound tourists and include overnight visitors whose main purpose of visiting is not work-related within the visited country. If data on the number of tourists are unavailable, the indicator includes the number of visitors, which encompasses tourists, same-day visitors, cruise passengers, and crew members. The sources and collection methods for this data vary across countries, including border statistics, surveys, and information from tourism accommodations. It’s important to exercise caution when comparing arrivals across countries due to differences in data collection and inclusion criteria. The data on inbound tourists specifically refer to the number of arrivals, not the number of individuals traveling, so a person making multiple trips to a country within a given period is counted as a new arrival each time. International tourism is a vital sector with significant economic implications, serving as a major trade category and generating foreign exchange income, employment opportunities, and infrastructure development, particularly in developing countries.

We will commence our analysis by analyzing the political aftermath of the Arab Spring.

Morocco Libya Egypt Tunisia Algeria Syria Yemen Saudi Arabia
Change of Gov NO YES YES YES NO YES YES NO

This table reveals that not all countries in the MENA region underwent a transition of government during the Arab Spring. In other words, the Arab Spring did not uniformly affect all the countries that experienced protests. To facilitate our analysis of the impact of government change on tourism levels, we categorized the cases based on whether a change of government occurred. This categorization allows us to identify both countries where the government changed and control cases. We can gain insights by examining whether the change of government influenced tourism levels or if all the countries affected by the Arab Spring experienced a change in their tourism. Employing control countries like Morocco or Saudi Arabia, which possess similar conditions to the countries in the region but did not experience a government change, allows us to infer the likely impact on tourism in the affected countries if they had not gone through that process.

The line graph presented in this analysis provides insight into the impact of government change during the Arab Spring on tourism in different countries. The graph is divided into two categories: “false” representing countries that did not experience a change of government, and “true” representing those that did. The dashed line represents the beginning of the revolutions during the second half of 2010.

The graph reveals that Egypt, Syria, and Tunisia witnessed a decline in tourist arrivals following the initiation of the protests, which potentially led to a sense of fear among travelers. This suggests a negative effect of the political unrest on tourism in these countries.

Political instability often leads to a prioritization of activities other than data collection and reporting by government agencies and organizations. Consequently, this can result in data gaps and limit the availability of information for analysis. For instance, the data for Syria ceases after 2011, coinciding with the outbreak of the civil war, indicating the challenges faced in data collection during periods of intense conflict and political upheaval. Similarly, data for Libya is limited, extending only until 2008, which can be attributed to the political instability in the country due to the repressive conditions of Muammar Gaddafi´s dictatorship. The turbulent circumstances during this period likely disrupted efforts to collect and report data, making it difficult for organizations such as the World Bank to access comprehensive information.

One possible explanation for Yemen’s tourism not experiencing a significant decline, despite undergoing a change of government during the Arab Spring. Yemen’s tourism industry may have been less dependent on international tourist arrivals compared to other countries in the region. Additionally, the extent and intensity of the conditions for the change of government in Yemen may have differed from that of other countries, leading to relatively less disruption in terms of infrastructure, safety concerns, and public perception.

To deepen our understanding of the impact of the Arab Spring on tourism, it is important to examine the disparities in tourism levels across countries before and after this period of upheaval. To achieve this, we will analyze maps depicting the absolute and relative number of tourists received by each country prior to, during, and after the Arab Spring. By visually comparing these maps, we can identify any substantial variations in tourism patterns and determine if there is a statistically significant difference in tourism levels following the Arab Spring. Despite experiencing a decline in tourism during the period of rebellion and unrest, certain countries, like Egypt, have consistently maintained higher levels of tourist arrivals compared to others. Egypt, with its renowned historical sites like the Pyramids of Giza and the ancient temples along the Nile, has long been a popular destination for travelers seeking to explore its rich heritage. Its strategic location at the crossroads of Africa, the Middle East, and Europe, coupled with well-developed tourism facilities and promotion, have contributed to its enduring appeal and ability to attract a larger volume of visitors.

On the other hand, countries like Algeria may have faced challenges in positioning themselves as prominent tourist destinations. Factors such as limited exposure in international tourism markets, political instability, and a less developed tourism infrastructure may have hindered their ability to compete with countries like Egypt in terms of attracting tourists.

The final stage of our analysis focuses on examining the relative number of tourists in relation to the pre-Arab Spring period. To achieve this, we standardized the tourist arrivals data for the year 2010 as a baseline, representing it as 100. The subsequent maps for 2011 and 2012 illustrate the relative change in tourist numbers compared to 2010. For instance, if a country is represented by a value of 75, it indicates that the number of tourists has decreased by 25% in comparison to the 2010 baseline. This approach allows us to assess the variations in tourist inflows at a national level, without being influenced by the absolute contrast in total tourist arrivals across different countries.

During the Arab Spring, Tunisia experienced a significant decline in tourist arrivals in 2011 as a result of protests and political unrest. However, there was a slight recovery in 2012, indicating a partial restoration of confidence in the country as stability improved. Similarly, Egypt witnessed a substantial decrease in tourism in 2011 due to the protests and subsequent political instability, but there was a slight upward trend in tourist arrivals in 2012, suggesting a gradual recovery. The civil war in Syria resulted in a lack of available data after 2011, while Libya also had no accessible data for analysis. Yemen did not show significant changes in its number of arrivals.

In contrast, looking at our control sample, both Morocco and Algeria maintained relative stability with a slight increase in tourist numbers, indicating their ability to sustain visitor interest during the period. Saudi Arabia experienced a notable rise in tourism, potentially benefiting from tourists who redirected their travel plans away from countries facing political turmoil.

Conclusion

In conclusion, our analysis supports the hypothesis that countries undergoing a transition of government during the Arab Spring experienced a significant decline in tourist arrivals. The findings reveal the varying impact of the Arab Spring on tourism within the region. Egypt and Tunisia, both countries that went through a change in government, excepting Yemen, faced a substantial decrease in tourism in 2011. However, there were indications of a gradual recovery in both countries in 2012, suggesting a partial restoration of confidence in their respective tourism sectors.

Contrasting the affected countries with control countries provides valuable insights. Morocco and Algeria, as control countries, demonstrated relatively stable tourism numbers with a slight increase during the period, indicating their ability to maintain visitor interest despite the regional challenges. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia experienced a notable rise in tourism, potentially benefiting from tourists redirecting their travel plans away from countries experiencing political turmoil.

It is important to acknowledge the limitations of our study. These include data availability issues as data limitations for Syria and Libya hindered a comprehensive analysis of their tourism trends during and after the Arab Spring, due to the difficulties of collecting reliable data during periods of intense conflict and political upheaval. Also it was beyond of our scope to fully analyze the impact of political instability on tourism, and the influence of external factors. Future research could delve deeper into the long-term consequences, recovery strategies, and policy implications of the Arab Spring on the tourism industry in the MENA region.

All in all, our findings underscore the critical role of political stability, security, and infrastructure development in cultivating resilient and sustainable tourism sectors. By drawing lessons from both the affected countries and control countries, policymakers and industry stakeholders can work towards fostering robust tourism industries that contribute to economic growth, cultural exchange, and regional integration in the MENA region.

References

Anderson, L. (2011). Demystifying the Arab spring: parsing the differences between Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Foreign Aff., 90, 2.