Crop Development Report 2

1 Crop Development Report 2

1.1 Project Summary

Client: FISP

Insurance Type:Hybrid Area Yield & Germination Weather Index Crop Insurance Policy.

Project Area: Zambia

Covered Crop:Maize, Sorghum, Soy beans and Ground nuts 

Coverage Period: Effective 1 st November 2022 to September 30th 2023.

Type of Survey/Analysis: Remote Sensing

Crop Development Report 2, entails the assessment of in-season crop condition during the maturity stage. The assessment period spans from vegetative stage of crop to maturity stage. This is done to inform on the crop health and condition at the time of crop cut exercises (CCE) through farmer field survey. The responses from the field are blended with remote sensing assessment based on the long term average rainfall (LTA), and the received rainfall amount in that specific season. CDR2 goal is to ascertain the presence of the following perils:

     . Drought peril and as a catalyst to pest and diseases.
     . Flood peril

1.2 Background to yield assessment

Crop yield can be influenced by many factors, among them is the climatic variability throughout a given season. While climatic or varying weather patterns may affect crop maturity and production at the end of the season, some crops thrive in harsh conditions while others need a stabilized climatic pattern. In order to ascertain the projected crop condition, probability of operational hazards affecting crop production and ultimately crop yield, besides the application of remote sensing in monitoring the in-season crop condition using derived satellite vegetation indices, PULA Advisors carries out farmer sampling through a phone interview or field survey to sampled/insured farmers within the unit area of insurance(UAI). The sampled farmers are contacted throughout a unit of insurance,their crop conditions and health verified. The collected information is harmonized with satellite observation throughout the season and used to inform and project the probability of crop yield in terms of production compared to the long term crop yield average. This report therefore is as a result of remote sensing analysis, that assessed the climate condition across the season as will be discussed.

1.3 Crops Phenological Requirements

Crops’ phenological processes can be interpreted as crop growth stages. Different crop stages have different sets of requirements, and these requirements define how well a crop will perform in terms of yield. The main requirements include favorable climatic conditions ( such as rains, temperature and evapotranspiration) that are key to crop performance at the end of the season. Different crops have different needs, especially on the amount of water needed.

Water requirements double as the crop approaches the vegetative stage from the relatively low water requirements in the germination stage. Thus, the vegetative stage presents the most critical stage for crop growth, where the amount of water needed is critical to developing starch and proteins in preparation for maturity and harvest. Generally, water requirements in crops will reduce as the crops approach maturity stage, however, depending on the amount of growth days for each particular crop, the amount of water requirement at the vegetative stage may vary.

However, for crops to attain maximum productivity, the amount of rainfall required should also be distributed across the crop growing days, and many consecutive dry days should be avoided. When rainfall days do not match the crop growing days, crops face water shortages and their health is compromised mid-season as well as during the maturity stage. During crop growing stages, crops that receive more water content than is required, may be affected by floods/water logging.
On the other hand, when crops receive less water than required or the amount of water lost from the soil is higher than the amount received and retained altogether, crops suffer acute water shortages, and thus a drought and crop stress peril is experienced. Other perils also include abrupt high temperatures, pests, and diseases, among others.

1.3.1 Balancing the crop growing equation

The crop growing equation is a simple mode of describing how different variables including climatic, agro-edaphic factors, farm practices and seed type/variety balance out to provide a mature and ready to harvest crop. Most of these factors cannot be controlled, this is inclusive of factors such as climatic conditions, pests and diseases. The rest of the factors that contain the agro-edaphic factors such as soil nutrient content, slope and farm practices have been controlled in the past, and the availability of information to control the agro-edaphic factors can contribute immensely to crop success. Farm practices are informed by the cultural behavior, which has since shifted with time, based on crop performance. Thus, farm practices can also be standardized to ensure and enhance productivity, based on the type of crops grown within a particular season. Although the mentioned factors above contribute immensely to crop production, climatic factors such as rains, temperature and evapotranspiration still remain major contributors to crop production. Their occurrence and pattern affect how crops perform, as they affect the amount of water that is left for crop consumption. From their historical assessment, perils such as floods and droughts can be assessed and the extent of their effect on crops monitored, and thereby influencing insights for decision making pertaining to indemnifications. The three factors to consider when assessing the crop growth journey and production states that: Ideally, the amount of rainfall should not be more/less than that required by a certain crop, or should be within a required amount. The amount of soil moisture absorbed or retained by the soil should be adequate to sustain crop growth till the next rainfall day. The crop growing days should not be less than the required growing days by a certain crop as influenced by climatic conditions. Ideally, the crop growing days is defined as the number of rainfall days,i.e, days where the amount of rainfall is higher than the amount of water lost through evaporation. The above 3 factors necessitate PULA to be able to assess the effect of operational perils, first as a projected baseline information through the Crop Development Report, and the assessment of loss to identify statistics that payouts can be based on. The next phase highlights results from the assessment of climatic variables on crop health at different stages.

1.4 Field Assessment at Box Placement

At the onset of the crop cut exercise, data is collected from the sampled farmers. This data is used to assess the effect of various perils on crops in preparation to yield measurements.The following charts summarise the outcomes in consideration to the three main perils including Flood/water logging, drought effect and pest and diseases effects on their crops.

Based on FISP assessment done assessing farmers responses on effect of flood/water logging on sampled farmers across the country, 77% of the responders were not affected by floods, representing more than 7000 farmer responses. Approximately 22 % of the farmers who responded complained of water logging at varying scale of their farms. Owing to the many farmers insured, flood or water logging peril, seems to be a major cause of yield loss for approximately 2500 sampled farmers across the insured areas. The summary is represented in the charts below.

Drought also seems to be a major peril that affected some parts of the insured areas, with approximately 37% of the farmers complaining of drought or water stress affecting their crops. The summary is charts are represented below.

Drought conditions affected some farmers during maturity stage of their crops, only 64% of farmers reported not being affected by drought on their crops.

From farmer responses received, pest and diseases also affected some parts of insured areas. However, the effect was not as expansive as was witnessed with drought and flood perils. Only 15 percent of the insured farmers complained of pest effect on their crops, while the rest 85% percent did not report any pest and diseases effect on their crops.

1.5 Remote Sensing Assessment

Remote Sensing was implemented through the assessment of comparison between long term average rainfall, and the received current rainfall. Their comparison, generates an output that shows an index of value ranges, that speaks to whether regions received more than expected rainfall, expected rainfall or they received very little rainfall. The output is represented as flood and index maps for different months as shown below.

1.5.0.1 Drought and Flood Index maps for BRAC insured areas

The maps below shows drought and index maps summarising how each location performed against a projected/expected climate patterns.

Based on the observed rainfall and temperature conditions, the insured areas represented in the maps above, shows areas that received normal rainfall and normal temperature across insured areas in January. February recorded a dryer conditions, with most areas recording very low value as can be interpreted from the legend on the right of the maps. March recorded relatively wetter conditions especially the central region of the insured areas. February and March are likely to be the cause of the drought and flood/water logging peril experienced.

1.6 Conclusion and Recommendations

From the above assessment, all the three types of perils are recorded including drought, flood and pest effect on the crops. This is also confirmed by the varying climate condition in February and March, where dry conditions were experienced in the Northern side of the country, while wetter conditions were experienced in the Central part of the country in March. The effect of these perils on payout will be assessed using yield data and presented in the payout report.

1.7 Annex

Previously, analysis on the season for various FISP aggregators were done and the report shared as season report. To access the reports, the link below is provided.

FISP Crop Development Report 1 Oct- January Assessment