Iron Man

There are many ways to define the MVP of the league. Many fans look at scoring, rebounding, assists, and shooting statistics. One phrase that has always stuck out to me is, “availability is the best ability.” Being on the floor and playing night in and night out is an important piece to have on your resume. NBA games have 48 minutes of game time, unless there is an overtime(s) takes place. Not only should the MVP be able to play every night, but he should also have a winning impact. The metric used to measure that is the plus/minus, which shows how many points better or worse the team performs when a player is on the floor. I wanted to see which players have logged the most time on the floor, so I have filtered to see the players with at least 2700 minutes.

There were nine players who played a total of 2700 or more minutes this past season. Of those players, we see that Jayson Tatum led those who played more than 2700 minutes in the Net Plus Minus. I would like to bring up that just because you play a lot, it does not mean that you are having a positive impact on your team. We see that five of the nine players have a negative net plus/minus.

From Downtown

In the last decade, basketball has experienced a revolution in how the game is played. No longer are teams playing a slow paced, grind it out styles of play. Rather, the game is now played with pace and freedom. Three-pointers have been a major factor in the increased tempo of the game, as long shots lead to long rebounds which leads to transition opportunities. Nowadays, it is expected that most players have shooting within their skill set, regardless of position. Big men, who traditional play 12 feet and in with their backs to the basket, now float along the perimeter waiting to shoot. Without the man in the middle, there is much more room to operate and drive to the basket. I believe the MVP should be at worst an above average shooter, so we will see who the top three point shooters were this past season. Percentage and total makes will be taken into account. We are looking at players who have made at least 210 three point shots this past season.

The first visual shows each player’s total three point attempts and three point percentage during the season. Similar to playing time, just because you take a lot of three pointers doesn’t always make you an above average shooter. Jayson Tatum, Julius Randle, Jordan Poole, and Fred Van Fleet may have made 210 or more threes, but all shot 35% or below. I would also like to bring up how impressive it is to shoot a high volume of three points and make a high percentage of them. Steph Curry, Buddy Hield, and Klay Thompson are truly elite shooters. That is further illustrated in the next visualization, which simply shows the players who made the most threes during the season. It should not be surprising that the same three players who shot the most threes made the most threes as well.

Sharing is Caring

As we continue to look at who is worthy of the MVP, NBA teams spend their time trying to stop these top players. Scoring is the main way to impact the game, but passing the ball can be equally as important. The best players have the ball in their hands in crucial moments of a game, so being able to set up teammates to score should be a skill they excel at. Getting teammates involved and orchestrating the offense should be the responsible of an MVP. These players know when to score and when to trust their teammates. These are the best playmakers in the league this past season.

For starters, I wanted to see who averaged the most assists during the regular season. The second visualization shows how many points each player was responsible for, as their assists led to points. The scatter plot also shows the plus minus per 100 possessions, or how much better or worse the team is when they are in the game. All but one of these players on the first visualization is a guard, as Nikola Jokic is a center. On top of being one of the top assist leaders in the NBA, Jokic has the best plus minus while being the responsible for the second most points in the league. When he is on the floor, Jokic and the Nuggets out score their opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions. That is an incredible stat that shows the importance that Jokic has to his team.

Glass Cleaners

We have talked about shooting and passing, but what about rebounding? Perhaps the most simple action to do in a basketball game, but also one of the most important stats. Rebounding leads to all other aspects of offense and defense, so securing the ball is critical to team success. Defensive rebounds lead to run outs in transition and limiting your opponent to one shot, while offensive rebounds lead to more opportunities to score and run clock in late game situations. I wanted to see who were the top ten rebounders in the league this past season, and see how many defensive and offensive rebounds they averaged a game.

All of these players on both visualizations are either power forwards or centers, or “big men.” Again, we see Jokic on this list, but the other two major candidates that the media believes is in the running are Giannis Anteokounmpo and Joel Embiid. As mentioned above, the game has sped up and three point attempts are at an all time high. This has led to teams playing smaller to increase speed, and the big men have slowly faded out of the league. These visualizations (and the next) show the value that bigger players can bring to a team, and that there are other ways of winning in the modern NBA.

Land of the Giants

Continuing our discussion about big men, there is still a group of players who can dominate in the interior. As mentioned in the shooting section, having shooters allows for more space in the middle. Players who can take advantage of that space and use their size and skill score easy baskets. The fear of the three pointer can lead to uncontested dunks and layups, which can be more of a problem if teams are not defensively sound. This next visualization shows players who had a field percentage of at least 55% and had at least 120 dunks this past season.

The game of basketball still resolves around size and how well teams can take advantage of it. We see that it can be nearly impossible to keep big men out of the paint. We see how there are still a number of big men who primary shoot 10 feet and in, with a couple of them being extremely efficient. Teams who have these players on their roster have a competitive advantage,and if they utilize those players correctly, it can have devastating results. It is always nice to know that you have a go-to option when you need it in the NBA.

Best of the Best

We have discussed play time, plus/minus, shooting, passing, rebounding, and efficiency. It is now to find who is an contender and who is a pretender for the MVP award. At the end of the day, scoring is how the good players separate themselves from the rest of the league. Not only should an MVP be able to score, but scoring at an efficient level takes you from a good level to an elite level.

It is remarkable that players can be so dominate, yet not waste their opportunities when they have the ball. I used effective field goal percentage, which is an equation that provides the effectiveness of 2-point and 3-point shots. (EFG% = [(All field goals made) + .5(3P field goals made)]/All field goals attempted) In order to win in the NBA, you need an player who can take over games down the stretch. These are the players you want on your team and the players you don’t want to see in crunch time moments. They are the best the NBA has to offer. After viewing the visualizations, there are certain players that continually appear. These are the players that I believe are MVP candidates for the 2022-23 NBA season. They are Steph Curry, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Joel Embiid.

player	Team	Position	Games Played	Minutes per Game	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	FG%	3P%	FT%
Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIL	PF	63	32.1	31.1	11.8	5.7	0.8	0.8	0.553	0.275	0.645
Joel Embiid	PHI	C	66	34.6	33.1	10.2	4.2	1.0	1.7	0.548	0.330	0.857
Nikola Jokić	DEN	C	69	33.7	24.5	11.8	9.8	1.3	0.7	0.632	0.383	0.822
Stephen Curry	GSW	PG	56	34.7	29.4	6.1	6.3	0.9	0.4	0.493	0.427	0.915

What do the experts think?

For my secondary data source, I have chosen to scrape from an ESPN article in which they discuss the MVP race in the NBA. Within the article, there is a table that contents the top ten players with the most votes. Listed are the player name, team, the number of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th place votes, as well as total votes, the total points of votes, and the previous rank in the MVP poll. The article may be a little dated, as it was published in mid February, but provides insight to what the writers at ESPN were thinking at the time.

	PLAYER	TEAM	1ST	2ND	3RD	4TH	5TH	TOTALVOTES	TOTALPOINTS	PREV.RANK
1	Nikola Jokic	DEN	77	15	7	1	0	100	913	5
2	Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIL	11	38	25	14	9	97	552	2
3	Joel Embiid	PHI	6	24	33	30	7	100	490	10
4	Jayson Tatum	BOS	5	19	24	28	23	99	410	1
5	Luka Doncic	DAL	1	4	11	26	47	89	218	3
6	Ja Morant	MEM	0	0	0	1	5	6	8	6

As of the month of February, Nikola Jokic was the leading candidate for the MVP in the nba. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid were in 2nd and 3rd place respectfully, with Steph Curry tied for 9th on the list. I believe that the this table is a fair representation to my analysis of my primary data sources. There is clearly four candidates that I believe deserve to be considered for the award this season. Since this article has been written, the NBA season has finished up and the final candidates for the Michael Jordan Trophy have been announced. Jokic, Embiid, and Antetokounmpo are the finalists for this year’s MVP award. The winner will be announced sometime in early May.

This has been the one of the closest MVP race in the last decade or so. All three candidates are more than worthy and have the resumes to support their case. Antetokounmpo is the best player on the best team in the Eastern Conference; Jokic is the best player on the best team in the Western Conference. Joel Embiid led the league in scoring for the second year in a row, and has the Philadelphia 76ers in title contention. If I had a vote, I would give the award to Jokic, making him the fourth player in NBA history to accomplish the feat of winning three consecutive MVPs. He would join Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain, and the late Bill Russell. As shown above, Jokic is a league best plus 12 points when he is on the floor, showing his impact he brings to the Nuggets. His shooting splits are ridiculous, to go with nearly averaging a triple double is the deciding factor for me. No one is more valuable to their team than Nikola Jokic this past season.