Project Arctic is an educational tool: a real-life simulation of the geopolitics of the Arctic Region, in the context of climate change. As the acceleration of climate change produces increasing environmental impacts globally, the Arctic region, given its unique status both environmentally and geopolitically, is drawing rising attention from international stakeholders.
Russia is deploying an increasingly large number of military assets to the region, becoming a foremost actor to engage in a strategic build-up of military forces in the area. The People‘s Republic of China has dubbed itself a “near-Arctic state,” in anticipation of the upcoming “Polar Silk Road” project — a network of Arctic shipping routes. The United States has a plethora of interests in the Arctic, varying from the its territorial sea, navigation through international straits and upholding the freedom of the seas, to fishery conservation, pollution control, and resource development. The European Union has become more attentive to the region, since it is ‘’one of the world’s strongest proponents of greater international efforts to fight climate change, through the development of alternative energy sources, resource efficiency, and climate change research’’.
Project Arctic employs a simulation model as a pedagogical methodology to demonstrate how climate change, geopolitics and policy are inextricably intertwined in the Arctic Region. Via this simulation model, Project Arctic aims to enable participants to gain a greater understanding of the dynamics and potential outcomes of future policies in the region. Through combining critical and creative thinking, decision-making processes, negotiations, and analytical skills, participants will have the chance to engage in a dynamic modelling scenario in which the complexities of the climate change-conflict nexus are explored. Environmental policy meets security policy, with crisis-solving skills having to be adapted to the unprecedented situation facing the Arctic
The Arctic Region is experiencing the effects of rising global temperatures: the dramatic recession of Arctic Sea ice may trigger competition for extraction of the vast reservoirs of oil and natural gas that lie under the vanishing ice – up to a quarter of the world’s undiscovered fossil fuel reserves, by some estimates. Some radical predictions for the region envision a new Cold War-like scenario. This simulation explores the interaction between the eight Arctic Council states: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia (currently suspended), and the U.S, and a permanent member: Aleut International Association. Furthermore, three lobby players will participate and shape the policymaking processes: Greenpeace, COSCO and ARAMCO.
Additionally, the simulation places the People‘s Republic of China, and the European Union Taskforce for the Arctic as members of the Arctic Council, to offer a comprehensive representation of the geopolitical players. Annual crises, the consequences of policy-making, and cooperation or lack thereof are only a couple of challenges participants will face in their endeavours to develop Arctic policies.
The simulation explores the geopolitical dynamics of the Arctic Region over approximately one decade (2023-2030), over 3 rounds. As early as 2030, some researchers say, the Arctic Ocean could lose essentially all of its ice during the warmest months of the year — a radical transformation that would upend Arctic ecosystems and disrupt many northern communities. Each round will explore the evolution of the Arctic Region over two, respectively three years- covering different Arctic Council Chairmanships. During each round, there will be limited events triggered by climate change-induced challenges. If not dealt with properly, these crises spill over in the region.
In this simulation, there will be a minimalistic representation of the Arctic. Based on the decisions and policy-making of the Arctic Council, the map will be updated each round. Participants will be able to visualize how their choices affected the Arctic, as well as picture the impact of climate events in the region.