COVID Cannibalism: Need for Investment
Why new investment needed to combat VPDs
Executive Summary
Vaccine Preventable Diseases & COVID-19
There are currently 25 diseases listed by the WHO as preventable by vaccines. These vaccines are essential in combatting dangerous infectious diseases that still plague communities world wide. Leading up to the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, vaccine preventable diseases were a major priority of international and domestic public health institutions. However, after the significant disruption of COVID-19 to the global and national economies, many budgets and resources dedicated to vaccine preventable diseases were repurposed to containing and combatting COVID-19. Particularly in LMICs. While many vaccine prices are negotiated in forward-pricing contracts or government subsidies, there is still great potential for impact by sustainable finance investors both in the pharmaceutical industry for novel vaccine technologies as well as in the delivery of vaccines to vulnerable communities around the globe. To understand this impact it is important to better illustrate the effect of COVID-19’s disruption in the global economy, the changes to vaccine preventable disease transmission and vaccine coverage during this time, and the potential impact of increased vaccine coverage.
Visual 1: COVID-19 Disruption
Beginning in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic had a serious impact on the global economy. One that had rippling effects throughout different sectors, particularly public health. To date, there have been over X cases of COVID-19 and as many as X deaths. The shock to economic growth globally and in developing settings was profound. The economic impacts of the pandemic likely impeded ongoing efforts to control vaccine preventable diseases. Despite the significant shock of COVID-19 its effects on global gdp are relatively smaller compared to the global financial markets collapse and 2015 Greek Debt default.
Code
#Summarize data for around the world
gdp_change <- vax_explore |>
filter(year <= 2021) |>
group_by(year) |>
summarise(mean_gdp = mean(gdp, na.rm=TRUE))
#Visualize data changes
gdp_change |>
ggplot(aes(x=year, y=mean_gdp/1000000000)) +
geom_point() +
geom_smooth() +
annotate("rect", xmin = 2008, xmax = 2010, ymin = 0, ymax = 300, alpha = .2, fill = "red") +
annotate("rect", xmin = 2014, xmax = 2016, ymin = 0, ymax = 350, alpha = .2, fill = "red") +
annotate("rect", xmin = 2019, xmax = 2021, ymin = 0, ymax = 450, alpha = .2, fill = "red") +
labs(title = "World GDP 1990-2021",
x = "Year",
y = "Mean GDP in $USD/Billion",
caption = "Data Source: World Bank | Visual by: Joe Aumuller")
Visual 2: VPD Distribution & Progress
Leading up to the pandemic in 2019, vaccine preventable diseases were declining against 1990 levels. This progress is thanks to trends in vaccine coverage and distribution as well as concentrated investment in targeting these diseases. The relationship between COVID-19 and VPDs is complex in that:
COVID-19 largely spread throughout developed nations with extensive travel and infrastructure networks; not the countries that have been fighting relatively high rates of vaccine preventable diseases
Linkages between healthcare budgets, expenditure, and investments were likely redirected towards COVID-19 but are harder to trace and differ by country/market
Code
#Mapping cases & vaccine coverage
#Distribution of VPD & COVID cases
vax_explore |>
filter(vpd == "COVID",
region != "NA") |>
mutate(vpd_rank = ntile(cases,5)) |>
ggplot(aes(vpd_rank, cases/1000, na.rm=TRUE)) +
geom_col() +
facet_wrap( ~ region) +
labs(x = "Prevalence Low to High (1-5)",
y = "# of Country COVID Cases per 100,000",
caption = "Source: WHO, Our World in Data, World Bank | Visual by: Joe Aumuller") +
theme_bw()
Visual 3: Potential Impact of Vaccination
Vaccines are often purchased and distributed through forward-pricing contracts and agreements with multilateral institutions or NGOs like GAVI, UNICEF, and others. Because of this, there aren’t readily available marginal cost or free market pricing data available for many vaccines. Despite this, the impacts of vaccination against VPDs can be displayed in terms of cases or deaths averted to demonstrate the impact of dedicating investment towards these vaccines and public health efforts.
Code
ggplot(vax_explore,
aes(fill=disease,
x=doses/1000000,
y=region,
na.rm=TRUE)) +
geom_bar(position="stack",
stat="identity") +
labs(title = "Vaccine Doses Administered Worldwide",
x = "Region",
y = "VPD Vaccine Doses per 1M Given",
caption = "Source: WHO, Our World in Data, UNICEF | Visual by: Joe Aumuller"
)