Describing the MORENA’s party vote movilization in Mexico, 2015-2021.

04/13/2023

Acknowledgments

To Midwest Political Science Association.
To the chair of the section.
To the authors on the panel.
To the audience.

Presentation objective

To know the association of the vote behavior for MORENA’s party among the federal elections on 2015, 2018 and 2021 with, also, the direct democracy exercises ocurred on 2021 and 2022, promoted by the national executive.
To assess the strengh of MORENA’s to movilize it’s electorate.

General question

Does the vote behavior on the direct democracy exercises (2021, 2022), particularly promoted by the national executive and his party (MORENA), was similtar to the electoral vote behavior for MORENA’s candidates on the national elections previously held (2015, 2018, 2021)?

Previous research on MORENA’s vote behavior

Subnational studies on MORENA’s electoral triumphs at state level elections (Espinoza Toledo & Navarrete Vela, 2016, 2018; Navarrete Vela, 6 C.E., 2018, 2019).
MORENA’s vote behavior studies on elections for governors and state deputies posts, analyzed with aggregate data at state level. (M. Bravo Ahuja Ruíz, 2017; M. M. Bravo Ahuja Ruíz, 2019; Martínez Valdes et al., 2021; Martínez Valdes & Bravo Ahuja, 2019).
Studies on the MORENA’s electorate behavior at national level based on cross survey data at national level. (Moreno, 2022; Sánchez y Sánchez, 2019).
Study on vote migration among parties on a national election based on local (electoral section) aggregated data. (Torreblanca et al., 2018).

Methods

Analysis unit: MORENA’s vote behavior on federal deputies elections and direct democracy exercises.
Analysis level: national study.
Observation unit: vote quantity for MORENA and “yes” votes on direct democracy exercises.
Data aggregation level: sectional level (national > state > district > sectional > polling place).
Time of study:
- National congressional elections for federal deputies held on 2015, 2018 and 2021.
- Direct democracy exercises: i. Ballot initiative of 2021, ii. Recall of president’s mandate of 2022.
Type of study: exploratory /descriptive.
Data analysis method: statistical description.
Sample size: 68440 electoral sections, 29 variables = 1,984,760 cells with information.

Partial results

The data showed a very similar vote behavior in favor of MORENA’s party among the congressional elections of 2018, 2021 and the ballot initiative of 2021.
MORENA’s electoral behavior showed a big growth between the midterm elections on 2015 and the national congressional election of 2018.
In contrast, the MORENA’s vote behavior showed an importan decline between the ballot initiative of 2021 and the recall of president’s mandate of 2022.
There aren’t any statistical similarities among the vote behavior for MORENA in any of the congressional elections and the direct democracy exercises.

Main findings

Descriptives

mean_vote_2015	mean_vote_2018	mean_vote_2021	mean_initiative_21	mean_recall_22
49.54619	301.2607	244.7005	271.7406	43.28337

sd_vote_2015	sd_vote_2018	sd_vote_2021	sd_initiative_21	sd_recall_22
67.10893	327.2437	242.1758	200.4428	38.27493

Maing findings

Percentiles distribution

percentil	eleccion_2015	eleccion_2018	eleccion_2021	consulta_2021	revocacion_2022
0%	1	0	1	0	1
5%	2	27	30	60	10
10%	4	48	50	87	13
15%	6	67	68	109	16
20%	8	87	84	128	18
25%	10	105	99	146	21
30%	13	125	114	162	23
35%	16	145	129	180	25
40%	19	166	145	199	28
45%	23	188	163	217	31
50%	27	213	182	236	34
55%	32	240	202	256	37
60%	37	271	224	277	41
65%	44	307	249	300	45
70%	53	345	277	325	49
75%	64	391	312	353	55
80%	78	446	355	384	61
85%	97	517	410	423	70
90%	122	621	496	475	81
95%	167	836	652	575	102
100%	1,703	6,449	3,835	4,290	966

percentil	eleccion_2015	eleccion_2018	eleccion_2021	consulta_2021	revocacion_2022
0%	1	0	1	0	1
5%	2	27	30	60	10
10%	4	48	50	87	13
15%	6	67	68	109	16
20%	8	87	84	128	18
25%	10	105	99	146	21
30%	13	125	114	162	23
35%	16	145	129	180	25
40%	19	166	145	199	28
45%	23	188	163	217	31
50%	27	213	182	236	34
55%	32	240	202	256	37
60%	37	271	224	277	41
65%	44	307	249	300	45
70%	53	345	277	325	49
75%	64	391	312	353	55
80%	78	446	355	384	61
85%	97	517	410	423	70
90%	122	621	496	475	81
95%	167	836	652	575	102
100%	1,703	6,449	3,835	4,290	966

Main findings

Differences among electoral exercises

ANOVA test to evaluate differences on the MORENA’s vote behavior among diverse vote exercises.

No similar groups on MORENA’s vote behavior.

Main findings

MORENA’S vote correlation

Conclusion

The vote behavior for MORENA hasn’t been the same in the congressional elections and the direct democracy exercises, revisited at a sectional level of observation.
The national executive (Andrés Manuel López Obrador) is a big asset to movilize the MORENA’s voter, but what happened on the recall of president’s mandate exercise on 2022?
There’s at least 5% of the electoral sections where MORENA’s vote reached very high numbers.

Lines of research

It’s needed to undestand the hidden or inner structure of the data (multivariate analysis) and to build categories of sections on MORENA’s vote behavior.
Needs to be done more field work on a territorial level to identify how the MORENA’s votes were movilized on each elections and also on the direct democracy exercises.
How was constructed the party’s organization at a territorial / local level?
What changed on the electorate preferences when facing congressional elections and direct democracy exercises?
How does MORENA party links with it’s constituency?

Closing

Thanks for your attention and comments

Dr. Gustavo Martínez-Valdes

gustavomtzv@politicas.unam.mx

Political and Social Science Facutly, UNAM, Mexico.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6269-7996

References

Bravo Ahuja Ruíz, M. (2017). Política y elecciones en México. Nuevas historias regionales 1980-2015. La Biblioteca, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, UNAM.

Bravo Ahuja Ruíz, M. M. (2019). Realineamiento electoral en los comicios estatales en México, 2018. La emergencia contundente de un partido. Estudios Políticos, 46, 41–71.

Espinoza Toledo, R., & Navarrete Vela, J. P. (2016). MORENA en la reconfiguración del sistema de partidos en México. Estudios Políticos, 37, 81–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.espol.2016.02.004

Espinoza Toledo, R., & Navarrete Vela, J. P. (2018). El desempeño electoral de Morena (2015-2016). Intersticios Sociales, 15, 241–271.

Martínez Valdes, G., & Bravo Ahuja, M. (2019). Procesos político-electorales en México. Historias regionales 1980-2018. La Biblioteca / UNAM.

Martínez Valdes, G., Bravo Ahuja Ruiz, M., & Ramírez González, B. (2021). Política, partidos políticos y elecciones en México. Actualización de las historias electorales estatales, 2013-2018 (primera). La Biblioteca / UNAM.

Moreno, A. (2022). El electorado morenista. El Financiero.

Navarrete Vela, J. P. (6 C.E.). Morena en las elecciones de 2018.

Navarrete Vela, J. P. (2018). Desempeño de Morena en los procesos electorales de 2017. Apuntes Electorales: Revista Del Instituto Electoral Del Estado de México, 17(59), 133–181.

Navarrete Vela, J. P. (2019). Desempeño de Morena en la elección presidencial de 2018. Apuntes Electorales, 18(61), 213–268.

Sánchez y Sánchez, C. L. (2019). La identidad partidista en la Ciudad de México. El PRD y MORENA el 1 de julio de 2018. Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, 26, 99. https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2019.26.66385

Torreblanca, C., Muñoz, M., & Merino, J. (2018). ganó AMLO? Breve historia gráfica de la migración electoral más grande en la historia democrática de México. Nexico.