Big Picture Recap

Salaries are Up, Employment Per Capita is Down

Comparison to Other Occupations

Note in Definition Differences:

Census of Governments - “Payroll”: : “Payroll amounts represent gross payroll for the 1-month period of March (31 days). Gross payroll includes all salaries, wages, fees, commissions, bonuses, or awards paid to employees during the pay period that includes the date of March 12.” Tech Doc

BLS OES - “Wages”:

The following are included in wage: base rates, commissions, COLA, hazard pay, tips. The following are excluded: back pay, bonus, overtime pay, severance pay. Definition.

Note also that BLS Police Officers and Firefighters would include those that work for cities, counties, and state governments, which also explains some of the difference.

Budgets

Note that this section does not include K-12 education as a proportion of city budgets. This is because cities generally do not fund or control K-12 education (see, e.g. L.A. City Budget, which makes no reference to education). Many states, like California, use a state-level funding formula to allocate the majority of school funding to school districts. School districts raise and spend funds in addition to federal and state grants.

Shares of Budgets

Crime and Fires

Pensions

Tax Rates

Massachussetts

California

Texas

Impact of BLM?

Police Salaries over Time

Police Employment per Capita over Time

Relationship Between Change in Police Employment/Salaries and Crime/Home Prices

Plots

Police Salaries

Police Employment Per Capita

Regressions

Percent Change, Above/Below Avg 2000 Crime Levels

regression term est se p_val
Police Salaries
pct_change_police_salaries vs pct_change_hpi *above_avg_crime_in_2000 pct_change_hpi 0.114 0.032 0.000
pct_change_police_salaries vs pct_change_hpi *above_avg_crime_in_2000 above_avg_crime_in_2000 -0.067 0.037 0.073
pct_change_police_salaries vs pct_change_hpi *above_avg_crime_in_2000 pct_change_hpi:above_avg_crime_in_2000 0.095 0.058 0.101
Police Employment per Capita
pct_change_police_employment_pc vs pct_change_hpi *above_avg_crime_in_2000 pct_change_hpi -0.035 0.039 0.374
pct_change_police_employment_pc vs pct_change_hpi *above_avg_crime_in_2000 above_avg_crime_in_2000 0.002 0.045 0.956
pct_change_police_employment_pc vs pct_change_hpi *above_avg_crime_in_2000 pct_change_hpi:above_avg_crime_in_2000 -0.057 0.070 0.415
Police Share of Budget
pp_change_police_budget_share vs pct_change_hpi *above_avg_crime_in_2000 pct_change_hpi -0.007 0.007 0.336
pp_change_police_budget_share vs pct_change_hpi *above_avg_crime_in_2000 above_avg_crime_in_2000 0.021 0.008 0.011
pp_change_police_budget_share vs pct_change_hpi *above_avg_crime_in_2000 pct_change_hpi:above_avg_crime_in_2000 -0.021 0.013 0.102

Panel, Yearly Log Crime Levels (No FE, Not Clustered, Robust SE)

regression term est se p_val
Police Salaries
police_salaries vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base 10.071 3.127 0.001
police_salaries vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc total_crime_pc -18957.763 8023.187 0.018
police_salaries vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base:total_crime_pc 76.725 71.045 0.280
Police Employment per Capita
police_employment_pc vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base 0.000 0.000 0.520
police_employment_pc vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc total_crime_pc 0.023 0.009 0.008
police_employment_pc vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base:total_crime_pc 0.000 0.000 0.850
Police Share of Budget
police_pct_budget vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base 0.000 0.000 0.266
police_pct_budget vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc total_crime_pc 0.554 0.294 0.060
police_pct_budget vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base:total_crime_pc -0.003 0.002 0.241

Panel, Yearly Log Crime Levels (City FE, City Clustered Robust SE)

regression term est se p_val
Police Salaries
police_salaries vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base 10.125 2.183 0.000
police_salaries vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc total_crime_pc -3541.155 4997.534 0.481
police_salaries vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base:total_crime_pc 0.964 43.225 0.982
Police Employment per Capita
police_employment_pc vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base 0.000 0.000 0.807
police_employment_pc vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc total_crime_pc 0.013 0.004 0.001
police_employment_pc vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base:total_crime_pc 0.000 0.000 0.160
Police Share of Budget
police_pct_budget vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base 0.000 0.000 0.000
police_pct_budget vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc total_crime_pc 0.388 0.240 0.110
police_pct_budget vs hpi_2000_base *total_crime_pc hpi_2000_base:total_crime_pc -0.001 0.002 0.681