Center for Health Economic Modeling

John A. Graves, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Health Policy

Associate Professor of Medicine

Is it cost-effective to genotype a healthy population to screen simultaneously for:

  1. Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer
  2. Lynch syndrome
  3. Familial hyperchoesterolemia

How should policymakers weigh the costs and benefits of enhancing hospital- vs. community-based cardiovascular disease screening in Bangladesh?

Can we refine quality measurement in acute stroke care to focus only on measures with high value?

How should antitrust regulators define markets for hospitals?

These are all fundamentally questions about tradeoffs, costs, and benefits.

  • The Center for Health Economic Modeling was created to advance knowledge, skills and research for quantifying the costs, benefits and tradeoffs of pressing clinical and policy decisions.

Center Members

  • 20+ years of experience modeling aspects of health systems in the US and globally.

  • Faculty specialized in cost-effectiveness analysis, economic modeling, and decision science.

Center Members

  • John A. Graves, Ph.D.
  • Melinda Buntin, Ph.D.
  • Josh Peterson, MD
  • Ashley Leech, Ph.D
  • Jinyi Zhu, Ph.D.
  • Shawn Garbett, MS
  • Manuel Horta, MS
  • Hanxuan Yu, MS
  • Jake Lowary
  • Melissa McPheeters, Ph.D.

Center History

  • Established in February 2020.

  • Immediately engaged to provide analytic and policy decisionmaking support to Tennessee Department of Health and COVID Unified Command.

Center Objectives

1: Collaboration

  • Working paper and white paper series for dissemination of applied and theoretic research contributions.

  • Staff and faculty consultations on health economics topics:

    • Modeling cost outcomes

    • Constructing a cost-effectiveness model

    • Measuring health care markets and health service areas

    • Policy simulation modeling

2: Learning and Dissemination

  • Periodic learning opportunities (e.g.,short-courses, seminars) for VU/VUMC researchers interested in utilizing health economic modeling techniques.

  • Speaker series to showcase work by researchers and practitioners within and across institutions.

  • Websites, code respositories, and tutorials on basic and advanced evaluation and simulation methods.

3: External Impact

  • Health care industry leaders and policymakers often reach out to Vanderbilt researchers for expert guidance on health economic topics.

  • The Center can formalize these often informal (and pro bono) consultations by offering consultancy and training opportunities.

    • Workshops on health economic modeling (ongoing)
    • Master course on population health and value based care analytics (planned)

COVID-19 Reports

  • 12 modeling reports on COVID-19 in Tennessee.

COVID-19 Reports

  • 12 modeling reports on COVID-19 in Tennessee.
  • Additional work published in JAMA, JAMA Health Forum.

COVID-19 Reports

  • 12 modeling reports on COVID-19 in Tennessee.
  • Additional work published in JAMA, JAMA Health Forum.
  • Significant local, national and international media attention.

Cost-effectiveness of population-level genomic screening.

  • In press (May 2023)
  • Culmination of 7+ years of collaboration on precision medicine and methodological advancements in cost-effectiveness modeling.

Cost-effectiveness of health system coverage of antiobesity medications

  • Uses health economic framework for considering budgetary and health tradeoffs of covering Wegovy.

Refining quality measurement for acute stroke care

  • Quantifies the quality measures where improvement would yield the greatest health benefit for $s spent.
  • Zhu et al., Annals of Internal Medicine. (Forthcoming)

Markets for Health Care Services

  • Do more expensive hospitals deliver better outcomes?
  • National Bureau of Economic Research white paper
  • Featured in the Freakonomics, MD podcast.

Markets for Health Care Services

  • Website with code and methods for defining health care markets.
  • Used widely by researchers in academia and goverment (e.g., Congressional Budget Office).
  • Basis for recent R01 grant submission (AHRQ) and ongoing collaborations.

Health Economics Workshop

  • Weeklong workshop on health economic modeling methods for stakeholders from 14 low- and middle-income countries.

  • Collaboration with Vanderbilt Institute for Global Health (Marie Martin)

  • Held in Bangkok, Thailand in October 2022

  • Sponsors: Bloomberg Philanthropies, Vital Strategies, CDC Foundation

Future Plans: Grants and Contrats

  • Ongoing collaborations to extend work under our Vital Strategies and CDC Foundation Data-2-Health contract.
  • Submitted R01 and ongoing collaborations to continue work on defining health care markets and service areas.
  • Just awarded today: Arnold Ventures project ($300k/2yrs) on modeling how Medicare Advantage networks channel patients through the Tennessee hospital system.

Future Plans: Grants and Contrats

  • NIH/NIDA Center Grant proposal with emphasis on economic modeling and decision analysis (Patrick & Leech, PIs; under review).
  • Early stage development of NSF/NIH grant to expand our “PAN-Decision Analysis (PAN-DA)” framework for modeling in resource-constrained settings.

Future Plans: Workshops and Courses

  • Advanced Modeling Course (Berlin, Germany, May 2023)
  • Modeling in Low- and Middle-Income Settings (Cape Town, South Africa, July 2023)
  • Cost-Effectiveness Modeling Workshop (Nigeria, October 2023)
  • School of Medicine Nanocourse proposal (Fall 2023)

Future Plans: Center Membership

  • Faculty recruitment
  • Staff recruitment

Thanks!

Center for Health Economic Modeling