Forecasting Football: 21-26 August 2015
J. James Reade
21st August 2015
Introduction
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## as.Date, as.Date.numericThis is a collection of forecasts for this weekend’s matches. We use a statistical model estimated on a large dataset of historic football matches, and we compare these forecasts to bookmaker prices.
We make three additions in the coming week: 1. We add a number of non-linear interaction terms to the regression model in order to achieve a higher fit and hopefully a more diverse range of forecast probabilities. 2. We add some tips based on our findings from last week when comparing our forecasts to bookmaker prices. 3. The scope of forecasts expands again this week, with Scottish, Spanish and Italian matches also being forecast. We also forecast European matches in the coming week (although not tonight).
On the first addition, it is worth noting that calibration of forecasts from our model suggests that the forecasts are not particularly badly aligned with actual outcomes. Nonetheless, the same can be said for bookmaker forecasts. An interesting question, which we will start to analyse in the next forecast update, is whether our forecasts add information to bookmaker prices, or vice versa. Either case would suggest that one or the other is more aligned to reality. Alas, time ran out and the old model is still being used this week, but in the coming week I will experiment with additional variables in the model.
On the second addition, we noted earlier in the week that a large gap between our forecast home and away wins was indicative of a home banker and hence should be backed — indeed such a strategy would have yielded a positive return.
The third addition, more leagues, provides more information on which to assess the model relative to bookmakers.
English Premier League
French Ligue 1
German Bundesliga
Italian Serie A
Spain
Scottish Premier League
Home/Away Bankers
In last week’s file we set up two rules for determining home/away bankers. If a home win probability was 30% more than the away win probability, or if the away win probability was 20% more than the home probability, that should be backed. We now list the matches that satisfy these two criteria this week:
kable(forecast.matches[c(forecast.matches$Ph-forecast.matches$Pa)>0.3 | c(forecast.matches$Pa-forecast.matches$Ph)>0.2,c("team1","team2","division","date","Ph","Pa")])| team1 | team2 | division | date | Ph | Pa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | aberdeen | dundee | Scottish Premiership | 2015-08-22 | 0.6070612 | 0.1678709 |
| 5 | airbus uk | carmarthen | Welsh Premier | 2015-08-22 | 0.6260666 | 0.1569372 |
| 6 | airdrieonians | rangers | Scottish League Cup | 2015-08-26 | 0.2165889 | 0.5299242 |
| 11 | anderlecht | lokeren | Belgian Pro-League | 2015-08-23 | 0.5927020 | 0.1763953 |
| 14 | arbroath | queen’s park | Scottish League Two | 2015-08-22 | 0.2610801 | 0.4686775 |
| 15 | arouca | benfica | Portuguese Liga | 2015-08-23 | 0.1969026 | 0.5597014 |
| 16 | arsenal | liverpool | English Premier | 2015-08-24 | 0.6175870 | 0.1617675 |
| 17 | astra giurgiu | csms iasi | Romanian Liga 1 | 2015-08-23 | 0.5792843 | 0.1845751 |
| 18 | ath bilbao | barcelona | Spanish Primera Liga | 2015-08-23 | 0.1696833 | 0.6039754 |
| 19 | atl madrid | las palmas | Spanish Primera Liga | 2015-08-22 | 0.6696420 | 0.1332662 |
| 23 | barnsley | bradford | English Football League One | 2015-08-22 | 0.5402469 | 0.2096306 |
| 24 | bastia | guingamp | French Division 1 | 2015-08-22 | 0.5341653 | 0.2137125 |
| 25 | bate borisov | neman grodno | Belarus League | 2015-08-22 | 0.6644402 | 0.1359949 |
| 27 | beroe stara | botev plovdiv | Bulgarian A-PFG | 2015-08-22 | 0.6300954 | 0.1546688 |
| 28 | besiktas | trabzonspor | Turkish Super Lig | 2015-08-22 | 0.5220277 | 0.2220112 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 40 | bursaspor | gaziantepspor | Turkish Super Lig | 2015-08-23 | 0.6034817 | 0.1699742 |
| 41 | burton | peterborough | English Football League One | 2015-08-22 | 0.6581545 | 0.1393263 |
| NA.1 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 46 | charleroi | westerlo | Belgian Pro-League | 2015-08-22 | 0.5987668 | 0.1727665 |
| 48 | cherno more | pfc montana | Bulgarian A-PFG | 2015-08-22 | 0.5357696 | 0.2126308 |
| 53 | c palace | aston villa | English Premier | 2015-08-22 | 0.5565481 | 0.1989324 |
| 55 | crvena zvezda | javor | Serbian Super Liga | 2015-08-22 | 0.5922083 | 0.1766926 |
| 56 | cska mosc. | r. rostov | Russian Premier | 2015-08-22 | 0.6376084 | 0.1504833 |
| 59 | din. bucharest | petrolul ploiesti | Romanian Liga 1 | 2015-08-22 | 0.5645898 | 0.1937809 |
| 61 | dundee utd | celtic | Scottish Premiership | 2015-08-22 | 0.2262117 | 0.5159972 |
| 62 | dunfermline | dundee | Scottish League Cup | 2015-08-25 | 0.2414138 | 0.4947820 |
| 64 | east fife | motherwell | Scottish League Cup | 2015-08-25 | 0.1737059 | 0.5971901 |
| 68 | esbjerg | midtjylland | Danish SAS Ligaen | 2015-08-22 | 0.2548276 | 0.4768196 |
| 70 | espanyol | getafe | Spanish Primera Liga | 2015-08-22 | 0.5494084 | 0.2035752 |
| 71 | estoril | moreirense | Portuguese Liga | 2015-08-23 | 0.5231140 | 0.2212600 |
| 76 | fc copenhagen | aarhus | Danish SAS Ligaen | 2015-08-23 | 0.6962563 | 0.1196920 |
| 77 | fc minsk | slavia mozyr | Belarus League | 2015-08-21 | 0.6767816 | 0.1295620 |
| 83 | fk krasnodar | m saransk | Russian Premier | 2015-08-23 | 0.6558564 | 0.1405537 |
| 85 | forfar | hearts | Scottish League Cup | 2015-08-25 | 0.1865665 | 0.5760698 |
| 86 | forfar | stenh’semuir | Scottish League One | 2015-08-22 | 0.5731222 | 0.1884035 |
| 87 | frosinone c | torino | Italian Serie A | 2015-08-23 | 0.1954001 | 0.5620484 |
| 89 | galatasaray | 1299 osmanlispor | Turkish Super Lig | 2015-08-24 | 0.6777101 | 0.1290837 |
| 91 | gillingham | wigan | English Football League One | 2015-08-22 | 0.5384982 | 0.2107992 |
| 92 | granada | eibar | Spanish Primera Liga | 2015-08-24 | 0.5645551 | 0.1938030 |
| 93 | granit mikashev | fc slutsk | Belarus League | 2015-08-21 | 0.5560038 | 0.1992840 |
| 94 | hajduk split | osijek | Croatian HNL | 2015-08-23 | 0.5436136 | 0.2073924 |
| 97 | hapoel acre | h. haifa | Israeli Ligat H | 2015-08-22 | 0.5505371 | 0.2028369 |
| 99 | hearts | partick | Scottish Premiership | 2015-08-22 | 0.6264952 | 0.1566951 |
| 101 | hibernian | stranraer | Scottish League Cup | 2015-08-26 | 0.6437887 | 0.1470833 |
| 103 | hoffenheim | b munich | German Bundesliga 1 | 2015-08-22 | 0.2268397 | 0.5151020 |
| 104 | ingolstadt | b dortmund | German Bundesliga 1 | 2015-08-23 | 0.2219812 | 0.5220710 |
| 105 | inter | atalanta | Italian Serie A | 2015-08-23 | 0.5481868 | 0.2043762 |
| 108 | juventus | udinese | Italian Serie A | 2015-08-23 | 0.6877495 | 0.1239619 |
| 112 | kilmarnock | berwick | Scottish League Cup | 2015-08-25 | 0.7125599 | 0.1116828 |
| 114 | kortrijk | gent | Belgian Pro-League | 2015-08-23 | 0.2356856 | 0.5026660 |
| 115 | krka | koper | Slovenian League | 2015-08-23 | 0.5453600 | 0.2062374 |
| 117 | lazio | bologna | Italian Serie A | 2015-08-22 | 0.7457457 | 0.0960534 |
| 127 | lugano | basel | Swiss Super League | 2015-08-22 | 0.2352903 | 0.5032149 |
| 128 | lyon | rennes | French Division 1 | 2015-08-22 | 0.5959700 | 0.1744347 |
| 129 | malaga | seville | Spanish Primera Liga | 2015-08-21 | 0.2179740 | 0.5278950 |
| 131 | man utd | newcastle | English Premier | 2015-08-22 | 0.7257768 | 0.1053526 |
| 132 | maritimo | porto | Portuguese Liga | 2015-08-22 | 0.2178558 | 0.5280678 |
| 135 | mechelen | o h leuven | Belgian Pro-League | 2015-08-22 | 0.5378273 | 0.2112486 |
| 136 | mgladbach | mainz | German Bundesliga 1 | 2015-08-23 | 0.6332464 | 0.1529063 |
| 137 | m. haifa | bnei yehuda | Israeli Ligat H | 2015-08-22 | 0.5528756 | 0.2013123 |
| 138 | middlesbro | bristol c | English Championship | 2015-08-22 | 0.5906061 | 0.1776592 |
| 140 | montpellier | paris st g. | French Division 1 | 2015-08-21 | 0.2129233 | 0.5353354 |
| 144 | m. tel aviv | bnei sakhnin | Israeli Ligat H | 2015-08-22 | 0.6377003 | 0.1504325 |
| 145 | nacional | uniao da madeira | Portuguese Liga | 2015-08-23 | 0.5347065 | 0.2133472 |
| 147 | nd hit gorica | nk krsko | Slovenian League | 2015-08-23 | 0.6064340 | 0.1682384 |
| 150 | nk istra 1961 | dyn. zagreb | Croatian HNL | 2015-08-22 | 0.2393420 | 0.4976185 |
| 158 | o. ljubljana | nk celje | Slovenian League | 2015-08-23 | 0.5527179 | 0.2014149 |
| 159 | olympiakos | panionios | Greek League | 2015-08-23 | 0.6094179 | 0.1664939 |
| 164 | partick | falkirk | Scottish League Cup | 2015-08-25 | 0.5258908 | 0.2193476 |
| 166 | pirin | ludogorets | Bulgarian A-PFG | 2015-08-21 | 0.2021269 | 0.5516248 |
| 170 | qpr | rotherham | English Championship | 2015-08-22 | 0.5970315 | 0.1738005 |
| 171 | queen of sth | morton | Scottish League Cup | 2015-08-25 | 0.5669088 | 0.1923105 |
| 172 | rad | jagodina | Serbian Super Liga | 2015-08-22 | 0.6164618 | 0.1624143 |
| 173 | radnicki nis | radnik surdulica | Serbian Super Liga | 2015-08-22 | 0.6210953 | 0.1597598 |
| 174 | raith | alloa | Scottish Championship | 2015-08-22 | 0.5356274 | 0.2127266 |
| 176 | randers freja | viborg | Danish SAS Ligaen | 2015-08-23 | 0.6337154 | 0.1526449 |
| 178 | rapid vienna | sv grodig | Austrian Bundesliga | 2015-08-22 | 0.7023587 | 0.1166677 |
| 181 | real betis | villarreal | Spanish Primera Liga | 2015-08-23 | 0.2626789 | 0.4666184 |
| 183 | ried | sturm graz | Austrian Bundesliga | 2015-08-22 | 0.2478230 | 0.4861137 |
| 185 | rizespor | fenerbahce | Turkish Super Lig | 2015-08-23 | 0.2563097 | 0.4748766 |
| 186 | ross county | ayr | Scottish League Cup | 2015-08-25 | 0.7237625 | 0.1063082 |
| 187 | rubin | zenit | Russian Premier | 2015-08-24 | 0.2610646 | 0.4686975 |
| 190 | sampdoria | carpi | Italian Serie A | 2015-08-23 | 0.6261244 | 0.1569046 |
| NA.2 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 194 | shakhtyor | gomel | Belarus League | 2015-08-22 | 0.6207538 | 0.1599547 |
| 195 | sheff utd | blackpool | English Football League One | 2015-08-22 | 0.5936125 | 0.1758479 |
| 200 | sparta prague | dukla prague | Czech Liga | 2015-08-23 | 0.6305721 | 0.1544015 |
| 201 | sp. gijon | real madrid | Spanish Primera Liga | 2015-08-23 | 0.2057619 | 0.5460807 |
| 202 | sporting lisbon | pacos ferreira | Portuguese Liga | 2015-08-22 | 0.6551466 | 0.1409338 |
| 203 | sp subotica | metalac | Serbian Super Liga | 2015-08-22 | 0.5423183 | 0.2082518 |
| 208 | st johnstone | motherwell | Scottish Premiership | 2015-08-22 | 0.5267888 | 0.2187314 |
| 210 | stranraer | ayr | Scottish League One | 2015-08-22 | 0.5336590 | 0.2140546 |
| 213 | targu mures | voluntari | Romanian Liga 1 | 2015-08-21 | 0.6578638 | 0.1394812 |
| 217 | toulouse | monaco | French Division 1 | 2015-08-22 | 0.2569249 | 0.4740725 |
| 223 | viitorul c | fc timisoara | Romanian Liga 1 | 2015-08-21 | 0.6022719 | 0.1706883 |
| 224 | viktoria plzen | sigma o. | Czech Liga | 2015-08-22 | 0.6633264 | 0.1365825 |
| 226 | vojvodina ns | novi pazar | Serbian Super Liga | 2015-08-23 | 0.5323824 | 0.2149187 |
| 230 | waregem | fc bruges | Belgian Pro-League | 2015-08-22 | 0.2506893 | 0.4822881 |
| 233 | west brom | chelsea | English Premier | 2015-08-23 | 0.2557583 | 0.4755985 |
| 235 | wycombe | dag & red | English Football League Two | 2015-08-22 | 0.7090885 | 0.1133693 |
My apologies for the un-sorted list, but the anticipated matches are in there: Chelsea, Man United, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and so on. Naturally I present the disclaimer that this strategy would have resulted in a positive payoff last week based on a much smaller sample.
We will see next week whether these picks were actually any good…
Conclusions
This is a tentative first foray into forecasting outside of England, and I hope to refine this, with bookmaker prices, and an evaluation of previous forecasts, in the coming weeks.
For transparency, all forecasts are also listed as a table:
kable(forecast.matches[order(forecast.matches$date,forecast.matches$division),
c("date","division","team1","team2","Ph","Pd","Pa")])| date | division | team1 | team2 | Ph | Pd | Pa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 2015-08-21 | Belarus League | fc minsk | slavia mozyr | 0.6767816 | 0.1936564 | 0.1295620 |
| 78 | 2015-08-21 | Belarus League | fc naftan | belshina | 0.3426701 | 0.2831669 | 0.3741629 |
| 93 | 2015-08-21 | Belarus League | granit mikashev | fc slutsk | 0.5560038 | 0.2447122 | 0.1992840 |
| 225 | 2015-08-21 | Belarus League | vitebsk | dinamo brest | 0.4013347 | 0.2813007 | 0.3173646 |
| 211 | 2015-08-21 | Belgian Pro-League | st. truiden | genk | 0.2763348 | 0.2742666 | 0.4493986 |
| 166 | 2015-08-21 | Bulgarian A-PFG | pirin | ludogorets | 0.2021269 | 0.2462484 | 0.5516248 |
| 125 | 2015-08-21 | Croatian HNL | loko. zagreb | nk inter | 0.3982355 | 0.2815952 | 0.3201693 |
| 139 | 2015-08-21 | Czech Liga | mlada boleslav | zlin | 0.4391241 | 0.2761418 | 0.2847341 |
| 102 | 2015-08-21 | Danish SAS Ligaen | hobro ik | nordsjaelland | 0.4410956 | 0.2757970 | 0.2831074 |
| 29 | 2015-08-21 | English Championship | birmingham | derby | 0.5104095 | 0.2594398 | 0.2301507 |
| 140 | 2015-08-21 | French Division 1 | montpellier | paris st g. | 0.2129233 | 0.2517414 | 0.5353354 |
| 100 | 2015-08-21 | German Bundesliga 1 | hertha berlin | w bremen | 0.4583589 | 0.2724765 | 0.2691645 |
| 184 | 2015-08-21 | Portuguese Liga | rio ave | braga | 0.3515522 | 0.2834166 | 0.3650312 |
| 213 | 2015-08-21 | Romanian Liga 1 | targu mures | voluntari | 0.6578638 | 0.2026550 | 0.1394812 |
| 223 | 2015-08-21 | Romanian Liga 1 | viitorul c | fc timisoara | 0.6022719 | 0.2270398 | 0.1706883 |
| 214 | 2015-08-21 | Russian Premier | terek grozny | din. moscow | 0.3396921 | 0.2830374 | 0.3772705 |
| 142 | 2015-08-21 | Scottish Championship | morton | st mirren | 0.4682235 | 0.2703445 | 0.2614320 |
| 152 | 2015-08-21 | Slovenian League | nk zavrc | domzale | 0.3244884 | 0.2820050 | 0.3935066 |
| 129 | 2015-08-21 | Spanish Primera Liga | malaga | seville | 0.2179740 | 0.2541310 | 0.5278950 |
| 110 | 2015-08-21 | Turkish Super Lig | kasimpasa | istanbul buyuk. | 0.3220127 | 0.2817765 | 0.3962108 |
| 182 | 2015-08-21 | Welsh Premier | rhyl | bangor city | 0.3828254 | 0.2827507 | 0.3344240 |
| 134 | 2015-08-22 | Austrian Bundesliga | mattersburg | wolfsberger | 0.4370656 | 0.2764942 | 0.2864402 |
| 178 | 2015-08-22 | Austrian Bundesliga | rapid vienna | sv grodig | 0.7023587 | 0.1809736 | 0.1166677 |
| 183 | 2015-08-22 | Austrian Bundesliga | ried | sturm graz | 0.2478230 | 0.2660633 | 0.4861137 |
| 25 | 2015-08-22 | Belarus League | bate borisov | neman grodno | 0.6644402 | 0.1995649 | 0.1359949 |
| 194 | 2015-08-22 | Belarus League | shakhtyor | gomel | 0.6207538 | 0.2192915 | 0.1599547 |
| 46 | 2015-08-22 | Belgian Pro-League | charleroi | westerlo | 0.5987668 | 0.2284667 | 0.1727665 |
| 135 | 2015-08-22 | Belgian Pro-League | mechelen | o h leuven | 0.5378273 | 0.2509240 | 0.2112486 |
| 230 | 2015-08-22 | Belgian Pro-League | waregem | fc bruges | 0.2506893 | 0.2670225 | 0.4822881 |
| 232 | 2015-08-22 | Belgian Pro-League | w beveren | mouscron p | 0.4744488 | 0.2689143 | 0.2566369 |
| 27 | 2015-08-22 | Bulgarian A-PFG | beroe stara | botev plovdiv | 0.6300954 | 0.2152358 | 0.1546688 |
| 48 | 2015-08-22 | Bulgarian A-PFG | cherno more | pfc montana | 0.5357696 | 0.2515995 | 0.2126308 |
| 150 | 2015-08-22 | Croatian HNL | nk istra 1961 | dyn. zagreb | 0.2393420 | 0.2630395 | 0.4976185 |
| 151 | 2015-08-22 | Croatian HNL | nk split | rijeka | 0.3313285 | 0.2825474 | 0.3861241 |
| 21 | 2015-08-22 | Czech Liga | b. 1905 | dukla pribram | 0.4274116 | 0.2780404 | 0.2945480 |
| 22 | 2015-08-22 | Czech Liga | banik ostrava | slavia prague | 0.3817680 | 0.2828106 | 0.3354213 |
| 224 | 2015-08-22 | Czech Liga | viktoria plzen | sigma o. | 0.6633264 | 0.2000911 | 0.1365825 |
| 228 | 2015-08-22 | Czech Liga | vysocina jihlava | synot | 0.3943736 | 0.2819334 | 0.3236929 |
| 68 | 2015-08-22 | Danish SAS Ligaen | esbjerg | midtjylland | 0.2548276 | 0.2683528 | 0.4768196 |
| 31 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | bolton | nottm forest | 0.4534227 | 0.2734802 | 0.2730971 |
| 36 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | brighton | blackburn | 0.3607668 | 0.2834649 | 0.3557682 |
| 39 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | burnley | brentford | 0.4538335 | 0.2733983 | 0.2727682 |
| 44 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | cardiff | wolves | 0.3411456 | 0.2831035 | 0.3757509 |
| 47 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | charlton | hull | 0.3426307 | 0.2831654 | 0.3742039 |
| 88 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | fulham | huddersfield | 0.3701622 | 0.2833006 | 0.3465372 |
| 118 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | leeds | sheff wed | 0.5043867 | 0.2611654 | 0.2344479 |
| 138 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | middlesbro | bristol c | 0.5906061 | 0.2317347 | 0.1776592 |
| 169 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | preston | ipswich | 0.4382757 | 0.2762880 | 0.2854363 |
| 170 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | qpr | rotherham | 0.5970315 | 0.2291680 | 0.1738005 |
| 180 | 2015-08-22 | English Championship | reading | mk dons | 0.3287759 | 0.2823601 | 0.3888640 |
| 23 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | barnsley | bradford | 0.5402469 | 0.2501224 | 0.2096306 |
| 41 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | burton | peterborough | 0.6581545 | 0.2025193 | 0.1393263 |
| 49 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | chesterfield | rochdale | 0.4950721 | 0.2637265 | 0.2412014 |
| 54 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | crewe | bury | 0.3629969 | 0.2834452 | 0.3535580 |
| 84 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | fleetwood | colchester | 0.4884552 | 0.2654647 | 0.2460801 |
| 91 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | gillingham | wigan | 0.5384982 | 0.2507026 | 0.2107992 |
| 157 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | oldham | shrewsbury | 0.4774391 | 0.2682045 | 0.2543564 |
| 168 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | port vale | doncaster | 0.3507796 | 0.2834029 | 0.3658175 |
| 193 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | scunthorpe | millwall | 0.4196226 | 0.2791571 | 0.3012203 |
| 195 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | sheff utd | blackpool | 0.5936125 | 0.2305397 | 0.1758479 |
| 199 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | southend | swindon | 0.4340914 | 0.2769894 | 0.2889192 |
| 229 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League One | walsall | coventry | 0.4458994 | 0.2749268 | 0.2791738 |
| 37 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | bristol r | barnet | 0.4157870 | 0.2796630 | 0.3045500 |
| 43 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | cambridge u | crawley | 0.4627952 | 0.2715383 | 0.2656665 |
| 45 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | carlisle | afc w’bledon | 0.3920309 | 0.2821230 | 0.3258461 |
| 74 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | exeter | york | 0.4952771 | 0.2636716 | 0.2410514 |
| 130 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | mansfield | oxford | 0.2705306 | 0.2728312 | 0.4566382 |
| 148 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | newport co | leyton orient | 0.3277112 | 0.2822766 | 0.3900122 |
| 153 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | northampton | plymouth | 0.4143501 | 0.2798450 | 0.3058050 |
| 155 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | notts co | accrington | 0.5065066 | 0.2605642 | 0.2329292 |
| 167 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | portsmouth | morecambe | 0.4526003 | 0.2736432 | 0.2737565 |
| 205 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | stevenage | hartlepool | 0.4779994 | 0.2680699 | 0.2539307 |
| 235 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | wycombe | dag & red | 0.7090885 | 0.1775422 | 0.1133693 |
| 236 | 2015-08-22 | English Football League Two | yeovil | luton | 0.3637827 | 0.2834353 | 0.3527820 |
| 53 | 2015-08-22 | English Premier | c palace | aston villa | 0.5565481 | 0.2445196 | 0.1989324 |
| 119 | 2015-08-22 | English Premier | leicester | tottenham | 0.5211462 | 0.2562318 | 0.2226220 |
| 131 | 2015-08-22 | English Premier | man utd | newcastle | 0.7257768 | 0.1688706 | 0.1053526 |
| 154 | 2015-08-22 | English Premier | norwich | stoke | 0.4447819 | 0.2751330 | 0.2800851 |
| 212 | 2015-08-22 | English Premier | sunderland | swansea | 0.3958708 | 0.2818061 | 0.3223231 |
| 234 | 2015-08-22 | English Premier | west ham | bournemouth | 0.4105706 | 0.2803036 | 0.3091258 |
| 24 | 2015-08-22 | French Division 1 | bastia | guingamp | 0.5341653 | 0.2521222 | 0.2137125 |
| 90 | 2015-08-22 | French Division 1 | gfc ajaccio | angers | 0.3370907 | 0.2829051 | 0.3800042 |
| 128 | 2015-08-22 | French Division 1 | lyon | rennes | 0.5959700 | 0.2295952 | 0.1744347 |
| 146 | 2015-08-22 | French Division 1 | nantes | reims | 0.3712029 | 0.2832694 | 0.3455276 |
| 149 | 2015-08-22 | French Division 1 | nice | caen | 0.3581010 | 0.2834726 | 0.3584264 |
| 217 | 2015-08-22 | French Division 1 | toulouse | monaco | 0.2569249 | 0.2690026 | 0.4740725 |
| 50 | 2015-08-22 | German Bundesliga 1 | cologne | wolfsburg | 0.2667858 | 0.2718432 | 0.4613710 |
| 66 | 2015-08-22 | German Bundesliga 1 | e frankfurt | augsburg | 0.4601716 | 0.2720973 | 0.2677311 |
| 95 | 2015-08-22 | German Bundesliga 1 | hamburg | stuttgart | 0.4239621 | 0.2785496 | 0.2974883 |
| 96 | 2015-08-22 | German Bundesliga 1 | hannover | b leverkusen | 0.2926178 | 0.2776914 | 0.4296909 |
| 103 | 2015-08-22 | German Bundesliga 1 | hoffenheim | b munich | 0.2268397 | 0.2580583 | 0.5151020 |
| 192 | 2015-08-22 | German Bundesliga 1 | schalke | sv darmstadt | NA | NA | NA |
| 4 | 2015-08-22 | Greek League | aek athens | platanias | 0.3630646 | 0.2834444 | 0.3534910 |
| 109 | 2015-08-22 | Greek League | kalloni | iraklis salonika | 0.3768007 | 0.2830584 | 0.3401409 |
| 162 | 2015-08-22 | Greek League | panthrakikos k | asteras t. | 0.3374610 | 0.2829250 | 0.3796140 |
| 97 | 2015-08-22 | Israeli Ligat H | hapoel acre | h. haifa | 0.5505371 | 0.2466261 | 0.2028369 |
| 98 | 2015-08-22 | Israeli Ligat H | hapoel ra’ana | h. kfar saba | 0.3986349 | 0.2815584 | 0.3198068 |
| 137 | 2015-08-22 | Israeli Ligat H | m. haifa | bnei yehuda | 0.5528756 | 0.2458121 | 0.2013123 |
| 143 | 2015-08-22 | Israeli Ligat H | m. petah tikva | m. netanya | 0.5193414 | 0.2567827 | 0.2238759 |
| 144 | 2015-08-22 | Israeli Ligat H | m. tel aviv | bnei sakhnin | 0.6377003 | 0.2118672 | 0.1504325 |
| 117 | 2015-08-22 | Italian Serie A | lazio | bologna | 0.7457457 | 0.1582009 | 0.0960534 |
| 221 | 2015-08-22 | Italian Serie A | verona | roma | 0.4114127 | 0.2802039 | 0.3083834 |
| 132 | 2015-08-22 | Portuguese Liga | maritimo | porto | 0.2178558 | 0.2540764 | 0.5280678 |
| 202 | 2015-08-22 | Portuguese Liga | sporting lisbon | pacos ferreira | 0.6551466 | 0.2039197 | 0.1409338 |
| 33 | 2015-08-22 | Romanian Liga 1 | botosani | pandurii | 0.3987642 | 0.2815464 | 0.3196894 |
| 59 | 2015-08-22 | Romanian Liga 1 | din. bucharest | petrolul ploiesti | 0.5645898 | 0.2416293 | 0.1937809 |
| 10 | 2015-08-22 | Russian Premier | amkar perm | spartak moscow | 0.4193581 | 0.2791929 | 0.3014490 |
| 13 | 2015-08-22 | Russian Premier | anzhi | ural sver. oblast | 0.3887317 | 0.2823695 | 0.3288988 |
| 56 | 2015-08-22 | Russian Premier | cska mosc. | r. rostov | 0.6376084 | 0.2119083 | 0.1504833 |
| 60 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish Championship | dumbarton | queen of sth | 0.2945703 | 0.2780444 | 0.4273853 |
| 122 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish Championship | livingston | falkirk | 0.3716480 | 0.2832553 | 0.3450966 |
| 174 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish Championship | raith | alloa | 0.5356274 | 0.2516460 | 0.2127266 |
| 35 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish League One | brechin | airdrieonians | 0.3509482 | 0.2834060 | 0.3656458 |
| 52 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish League One | cowdenbeath | albion | 0.3603504 | 0.2834673 | 0.3561824 |
| 86 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish League One | forfar | stenh’semuir | 0.5731222 | 0.2384743 | 0.1884035 |
| 165 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish League One | peterhead | dunfermline | 0.4469975 | 0.2747220 | 0.2782805 |
| 210 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish League One | stranraer | ayr | 0.5336590 | 0.2522864 | 0.2140546 |
| 14 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish League Two | arbroath | queen’s park | 0.2610801 | 0.2702424 | 0.4686775 |
| 63 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish League Two | east fife | elgin city | 0.3707278 | 0.2832840 | 0.3459882 |
| 65 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish League Two | east stirling | annan | 0.3077749 | 0.2801210 | 0.4121041 |
| 141 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish League Two | montrose | clyde | 0.3550849 | 0.2834601 | 0.3614549 |
| 207 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish League Two | stirling | berwick | 0.3470341 | 0.2833150 | 0.3696509 |
| 2 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish Premiership | aberdeen | dundee | 0.6070612 | 0.2250679 | 0.1678709 |
| 61 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish Premiership | dundee utd | celtic | 0.2262117 | 0.2577911 | 0.5159972 |
| 99 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish Premiership | hearts | partick | 0.6264952 | 0.2168097 | 0.1566951 |
| 106 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish Premiership | inverness ct | hamilton | 0.5195797 | 0.2567103 | 0.2237101 |
| 113 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish Premiership | kilmarnock | ross county | 0.3046847 | 0.2796828 | 0.4156326 |
| 208 | 2015-08-22 | Scottish Premiership | st johnstone | motherwell | 0.5267888 | 0.2544798 | 0.2187314 |
| 32 | 2015-08-22 | Serbian Super Liga | borac cacak | partizan | 0.2804621 | 0.2752175 | 0.4443204 |
| 55 | 2015-08-22 | Serbian Super Liga | crvena zvezda | javor | 0.5922083 | 0.2310991 | 0.1766926 |
| 156 | 2015-08-22 | Serbian Super Liga | ofk belgrade | mladost lucani | 0.4307691 | 0.2775228 | 0.2917082 |
| 172 | 2015-08-22 | Serbian Super Liga | rad | jagodina | 0.6164618 | 0.2211240 | 0.1624143 |
| 173 | 2015-08-22 | Serbian Super Liga | radnicki nis | radnik surdulica | 0.6210953 | 0.2191449 | 0.1597598 |
| 203 | 2015-08-22 | Serbian Super Liga | sp subotica | metalac | 0.5423183 | 0.2494299 | 0.2082518 |
| 227 | 2015-08-22 | Serbian Super Liga | vozdovac | cukaricki | 0.3658534 | 0.2834023 | 0.3507443 |
| 188 | 2015-08-22 | Slovenian League | rudar velenje | nk maribor | 0.2824108 | 0.2756466 | 0.4419426 |
| 19 | 2015-08-22 | Spanish Primera Liga | atl madrid | las palmas | 0.6696420 | 0.1970917 | 0.1332662 |
| 57 | 2015-08-22 | Spanish Primera Liga | deportivo | sociedad | 0.3715649 | 0.2832580 | 0.3451771 |
| 70 | 2015-08-22 | Spanish Primera Liga | espanyol | getafe | 0.5494084 | 0.2470164 | 0.2035752 |
| 189 | 2015-08-22 | Spanish Primera Liga | r. vallecano | valencia | 0.2733388 | 0.2735402 | 0.4531210 |
| 81 | 2015-08-22 | Swiss Super League | fc zurich | lucerne | 0.3692842 | 0.2833249 | 0.3473909 |
| 127 | 2015-08-22 | Swiss Super League | lugano | basel | 0.2352903 | 0.2614948 | 0.5032149 |
| 8 | 2015-08-22 | Turkish Super Lig | akhisar b | mersin | 0.4227388 | 0.2787246 | 0.2985367 |
| 28 | 2015-08-22 | Turkish Super Lig | besiktas | trabzonspor | 0.5220277 | 0.2559611 | 0.2220112 |
| 111 | 2015-08-22 | Turkish Super Lig | kayserispor | konyaspor | 0.3221486 | 0.2817895 | 0.3960619 |
| 5 | 2015-08-22 | Welsh Premier | airbus uk | carmarthen | 0.6260666 | 0.2169962 | 0.1569372 |
| 123 | 2015-08-22 | Welsh Premier | llandudno | aberystwyth | 0.3341031 | 0.2827308 | 0.3831661 |
| 9 | 2015-08-23 | Austrian Bundesliga | altach | admira wacker | 0.3693077 | 0.2833243 | 0.3473680 |
| 179 | 2015-08-23 | Austrian Bundesliga | rb salzburg | aus. vienna | 0.5063675 | 0.2606038 | 0.2330287 |
| 216 | 2015-08-23 | Belarus League | torpedo zh | dinamo minsk | 0.3422607 | 0.2831505 | 0.3745888 |
| 11 | 2015-08-23 | Belgian Pro-League | anderlecht | lokeren | 0.5927020 | 0.2309027 | 0.1763953 |
| 114 | 2015-08-23 | Belgian Pro-League | kortrijk | gent | 0.2356856 | 0.2616484 | 0.5026660 |
| 204 | 2015-08-23 | Belgian Pro-League | standard liege | oostende | 0.5213775 | 0.2561609 | 0.2224616 |
| 124 | 2015-08-23 | Bulgarian A-PFG | loko. plovdiv | levski sofia | 0.2728108 | 0.2734089 | 0.4537803 |
| 197 | 2015-08-23 | Bulgarian A-PFG | slavia sofia | litex | 0.3451302 | 0.2832564 | 0.3716134 |
| 94 | 2015-08-23 | Croatian HNL | hajduk split | osijek | 0.5436136 | 0.2489939 | 0.2073924 |
| 196 | 2015-08-23 | Croatian HNL | slaven | nk zagreb | 0.4793735 | 0.2677376 | 0.2528889 |
| 75 | 2015-08-23 | Czech Liga | fc brno | jablonec | 0.3106789 | 0.2805068 | 0.4088143 |
| 198 | 2015-08-23 | Czech Liga | slovan liberec | teplice | 0.4920657 | 0.2645247 | 0.2434095 |
| 200 | 2015-08-23 | Czech Liga | sparta prague | dukla prague | 0.6305721 | 0.2150264 | 0.1544015 |
| 38 | 2015-08-23 | Danish SAS Ligaen | brondby | sonderjyske | 0.4257560 | 0.2782877 | 0.2959563 |
| 76 | 2015-08-23 | Danish SAS Ligaen | fc copenhagen | aarhus | 0.6962563 | 0.1840517 | 0.1196920 |
| 176 | 2015-08-23 | Danish SAS Ligaen | randers freja | viborg | 0.6337154 | 0.2136397 | 0.1526449 |
| 72 | 2015-08-23 | English Premier | everton | man city | 0.2937987 | 0.2779063 | 0.4282950 |
| 231 | 2015-08-23 | English Premier | watford | southampton | 0.5067947 | 0.2604819 | 0.2327234 |
| 233 | 2015-08-23 | English Premier | west brom | chelsea | 0.2557583 | 0.2686432 | 0.4755985 |
| 121 | 2015-08-23 | French Division 1 | lille | bordeaux | 0.4476759 | 0.2745944 | 0.2777298 |
| 126 | 2015-08-23 | French Division 1 | lorient | st etienne | 0.3448947 | 0.2832486 | 0.3718567 |
| 133 | 2015-08-23 | French Division 1 | marseille | troyes | 0.4909611 | 0.2648145 | 0.2442244 |
| 104 | 2015-08-23 | German Bundesliga 1 | ingolstadt | b dortmund | 0.2219812 | 0.2559478 | 0.5220710 |
| 136 | 2015-08-23 | German Bundesliga 1 | mgladbach | mainz | 0.6332464 | 0.2138473 | 0.1529063 |
| 20 | 2015-08-23 | Greek League | atromitos | levadiakos | 0.4979192 | 0.2629577 | 0.2391231 |
| 159 | 2015-08-23 | Greek League | olympiakos | panionios | 0.6094179 | 0.2240882 | 0.1664939 |
| 163 | 2015-08-23 | Greek League | paok salonika | xanthi | 0.4649559 | 0.2710691 | 0.2639750 |
| 220 | 2015-08-23 | Greek League | veroia | ioannina | 0.2970396 | 0.2784736 | 0.4244868 |
| 107 | 2015-08-23 | Israeli Ligat H | ironi kiryat s | h. beer sheva | 0.4316795 | 0.2773787 | 0.2909418 |
| 67 | 2015-08-23 | Italian Serie A | empoli | chievo | 0.4458928 | 0.2749280 | 0.2791791 |
| 82 | 2015-08-23 | Italian Serie A | fiorentina | milan | 0.5136643 | 0.2584850 | 0.2278507 |
| 87 | 2015-08-23 | Italian Serie A | frosinone c | torino | 0.1954001 | 0.2425515 | 0.5620484 |
| 105 | 2015-08-23 | Italian Serie A | inter | atalanta | 0.5481868 | 0.2474369 | 0.2043762 |
| 108 | 2015-08-23 | Italian Serie A | juventus | udinese | 0.6877495 | 0.1882886 | 0.1239619 |
| 160 | 2015-08-23 | Italian Serie A | palermo | genoa | 0.3900092 | 0.2822769 | 0.3277139 |
| 190 | 2015-08-23 | Italian Serie A | sampdoria | carpi | 0.6261244 | 0.2169710 | 0.1569046 |
| 191 | 2015-08-23 | Italian Serie A | sassuolo | napoli | 0.4554886 | 0.2730653 | 0.2714461 |
| 15 | 2015-08-23 | Portuguese Liga | arouca | benfica | 0.1969026 | 0.2433960 | 0.5597014 |
| 30 | 2015-08-23 | Portuguese Liga | boavista | tondela | 0.4507626 | 0.2740033 | 0.2752341 |
| 71 | 2015-08-23 | Portuguese Liga | estoril | moreirense | 0.5231140 | 0.2556259 | 0.2212600 |
| 145 | 2015-08-23 | Portuguese Liga | nacional | uniao da madeira | 0.5347065 | 0.2519463 | 0.2133472 |
| 222 | 2015-08-23 | Portuguese Liga | v guimaraes | belenenses | 0.5175249 | 0.2573325 | 0.2251427 |
| 17 | 2015-08-23 | Romanian Liga 1 | astra giurgiu | csms iasi | 0.5792843 | 0.2361405 | 0.1845751 |
| 219 | 2015-08-23 | Romanian Liga 1 | uni craiova | steaua | 0.3485795 | 0.2833556 | 0.3680649 |
| 80 | 2015-08-23 | Russian Premier | fc ufa | lok. moscow | 0.3516760 | 0.2834187 | 0.3649053 |
| 83 | 2015-08-23 | Russian Premier | fk krasnodar | m saransk | 0.6558564 | 0.2035900 | 0.1405537 |
| 177 | 2015-08-23 | Scottish Championship | rangers | hibernian | 0.4485120 | 0.2744359 | 0.2770521 |
| 226 | 2015-08-23 | Serbian Super Liga | vojvodina ns | novi pazar | 0.5323824 | 0.2526989 | 0.2149187 |
| 115 | 2015-08-23 | Slovenian League | krka | koper | 0.5453600 | 0.2484026 | 0.2062374 |
| 147 | 2015-08-23 | Slovenian League | nd hit gorica | nk krsko | 0.6064340 | 0.2253276 | 0.1682384 |
| 158 | 2015-08-23 | Slovenian League | o. ljubljana | nk celje | 0.5527179 | 0.2458672 | 0.2014149 |
| 18 | 2015-08-23 | Spanish Primera Liga | ath bilbao | barcelona | 0.1696833 | 0.2263413 | 0.6039754 |
| 120 | 2015-08-23 | Spanish Primera Liga | levante | celta vigo | 0.3011420 | 0.2791448 | 0.4197133 |
| 181 | 2015-08-23 | Spanish Primera Liga | real betis | villarreal | 0.2626789 | 0.2707027 | 0.4666184 |
| 201 | 2015-08-23 | Spanish Primera Liga | sp. gijon | real madrid | 0.2057619 | 0.2481574 | 0.5460807 |
| 79 | 2015-08-23 | Swiss Super League | fc sion | young boys | 0.4706838 | 0.2697870 | 0.2595292 |
| 206 | 2015-08-23 | Swiss Super League | st gallen | grasshoppers | 0.3612269 | 0.2834618 | 0.3553113 |
| 215 | 2015-08-23 | Swiss Super League | thun | vaduz | 0.5208833 | 0.2563124 | 0.2228043 |
| 12 | 2015-08-23 | Turkish Super Lig | antalyaspor | genclerbirligi | 0.4784580 | 0.2679593 | 0.2535826 |
| 40 | 2015-08-23 | Turkish Super Lig | bursaspor | gaziantepspor | 0.6034817 | 0.2265441 | 0.1699742 |
| 69 | 2015-08-23 | Turkish Super Lig | eskisehirspor | sivasspor | 0.4511403 | 0.2739298 | 0.2749299 |
| 185 | 2015-08-23 | Turkish Super Lig | rizespor | fenerbahce | 0.2563097 | 0.2688137 | 0.4748766 |
| 1 | 2015-08-24 | Danish SAS Ligaen | aalborg | ob odense | 0.4958200 | 0.2635258 | 0.2406543 |
| 16 | 2015-08-24 | English Premier | arsenal | liverpool | 0.6175870 | 0.2206455 | 0.1617675 |
| 161 | 2015-08-24 | Greek League | panetolikos | panathinaikos | 0.2800329 | 0.2751213 | 0.4448458 |
| 26 | 2015-08-24 | Israeli Ligat H | beitar j’salem | h tel aviv | 0.5037957 | 0.2613318 | 0.2348725 |
| 3 | 2015-08-24 | Portuguese Liga | acad coimbra | vitoria setubal | 0.4540151 | 0.2733620 | 0.2726229 |
| 51 | 2015-08-24 | Romanian Liga 1 | concordia c | cfr cluj | 0.3384090 | 0.2829744 | 0.3786166 |
| 116 | 2015-08-24 | Russian Premier | kryliya sovetov | kuban k | 0.4618809 | 0.2717345 | 0.2663846 |
| 187 | 2015-08-24 | Russian Premier | rubin | zenit | 0.2610646 | 0.2702379 | 0.4686975 |
| 92 | 2015-08-24 | Spanish Primera Liga | granada | eibar | 0.5645551 | 0.2416419 | 0.1938030 |
| 89 | 2015-08-24 | Turkish Super Lig | galatasaray | 1299 osmanlispor | 0.6777101 | 0.1932062 | 0.1290837 |
| 7 | 2015-08-25 | French League Cup | ajaccio | laval | 0.4461167 | 0.2748864 | 0.2789969 |
| 34 | 2015-08-25 | French League Cup | bourg peronnas | nancy | NA | NA | NA |
| 42 | 2015-08-25 | French League Cup | ca bastia | auxerre | NA | NA | NA |
| 58 | 2015-08-25 | French League Cup | dijon | metz | 0.5009897 | 0.2621147 | 0.2368956 |
| 73 | 2015-08-25 | French League Cup | evian | clermont | 0.4654839 | 0.2709533 | 0.2635629 |
| 218 | 2015-08-25 | French League Cup | tours | sochaux | 0.3424932 | 0.2831599 | 0.3743469 |
| 62 | 2015-08-25 | Scottish League Cup | dunfermline | dundee | 0.2414138 | 0.2638041 | 0.4947820 |
| 64 | 2015-08-25 | Scottish League Cup | east fife | motherwell | 0.1737059 | 0.2291040 | 0.5971901 |
| 85 | 2015-08-25 | Scottish League Cup | forfar | hearts | 0.1865665 | 0.2373637 | 0.5760698 |
| 112 | 2015-08-25 | Scottish League Cup | kilmarnock | berwick | 0.7125599 | 0.1757573 | 0.1116828 |
| 164 | 2015-08-25 | Scottish League Cup | partick | falkirk | 0.5258908 | 0.2547616 | 0.2193476 |
| 171 | 2015-08-25 | Scottish League Cup | queen of sth | morton | 0.5669088 | 0.2407807 | 0.1923105 |
| 175 | 2015-08-25 | Scottish League Cup | raith | hamilton | 0.2791462 | 0.2749205 | 0.4459333 |
| 186 | 2015-08-25 | Scottish League Cup | ross county | ayr | 0.7237625 | 0.1699293 | 0.1063082 |
| 209 | 2015-08-25 | Scottish League Cup | st mirren | livingston | 0.4383769 | 0.2762707 | 0.2853524 |
| 6 | 2015-08-26 | Scottish League Cup | airdrieonians | rangers | 0.2165889 | 0.2534869 | 0.5299242 |
| 101 | 2015-08-26 | Scottish League Cup | hibernian | stranraer | 0.6437887 | 0.2091280 | 0.1470833 |