The small Pacific island nation of Vanuatu won a major victory to advance international climate law Wednesday after it persuaded the U.N. General Assembly to ask the world’s highest international court to rule on the obligations of countries to address climate change. Washington Post, March 29, 2023

Presentation outlines

For today

Today we discuss how near-exponential population growth will transition during the 21st century. Identify three countries where changes in demography are likely to collide with climate change. What are the possible outcomes and what can be done to head them off?

Here are the resources from last time.

Population growth

Population 7 Billion Nat Geo recognizes the landmark in 2022 (if this link hits a paywall, access January 2011 through Duke Libraries)

2023: On to 8 Billion THE IMPACT OF POPULATION BOOMS AND BUSTS from Nat Geo

How Do We Feed Nine Billion People from the LA Times

Drought

Drought monitor nationally What is the drought today?

Water wars

The brink of disaster CNN discusses drought and drinking water in the Southwest.

Colorado River crisis from the Washington Post.

In groups we’ll identify the most important possible outcomes and the actions that might help to mitigate them. Prepare a two page document and then present to the class.

For next time

Vanuatu’s request for an advisory ruling from the International Court of Justice has been granted. This island archipelago of 300,000 has suffered sea-level rise, land loss, and multiple category 4 cyclones. The island nation has plans to address these challenges, but they are expensive to implement. The court’s agreement to rule on this case is significant, because it moves the discussions from venus like the Convention of Parties (COP), where lack of consensus can cloud the issues, to a potential consensus statement that might clarify the issue of responsibility

Questions

We will prepare to debate the issues that confront the International Court. In preparation, think about several questions:

  • How did Vanuatu garner support from other nations for the request?

  • What are the obligations of nations that are not being met?

  • What makes this a human rights issue?

  • What is an advisory opinion from the International Court?

  • What impact could it have on global warming?

  • Could a legal decision have negative consequences? Or not?

  • Why might fossil-fuel emitting nations that have been weakly responsive to international pressure thus far abide by a decision by the court?