1 Crop Development Report 2

Project Summary, Client: WFP Kitui, Insurance Type: Group Crop Yield Insurance, Project Area: Kitui County, Kenya

Covered Crop: Cow peas, Green Grams, Sorghum and Millet, Coverage Period: 2022 Short Rains, Type of Survey: Hybrid (Field Visits + Remote Sensing).

Crop Development Report 2, entails the assessment of in-season crop condition during the maturity stage. The assessment period spans from vegetative stage of crop to maturity stage. This is done to inform on the crop health and condition at the time of crop cut exercises (CCE) through farmer field survey. The responses from the field are blended with remote sensing assessment based on the long term average rainfall (LTA), and the received rainfall amount in that specific season. CDR2 goal is to ascertain the presence of the following perils:

     . Drought peril and as a catalyst to pest and diseases.
     . Flood peril

1.1 Background to yield assessment

Crop yield can be influenced by many factors, among them is the climatic variability throughout a given season. While climatic or varying weather patterns may affect crop maturity and production at the end of the season, some crops thrive in harsh conditions while others need a stabilized climatic pattern. In order to ascertain the projected crop condition, probability of operational hazards affecting crop production and ultimately crop yield, besides the application of remote sensing in monitoring the in-season crop condition using derived satellite vegetation indices, PULA Advisors carries out farmer sampling through a phone interview or field survey to sampled/insured farmers within the unit area of insurance(UAI). The sampled farmers are contacted throughout a unit of insurance,their crop conditions and health verified. The collected information is harmonized with satellite observation throughout the season and used to inform and project the probability of crop yield in terms of production compared to the long term crop yield average. This report therefore is as a result of remote sensing analysis, that assessed the climate condition across the season as will be discussed.

1.2 Crops Phenological Requirements

Crops’ phenological processes can be interpreted as crop growth stages. Different crop stages have different sets of requirements, and these requirements define how well a crop will perform in terms of yield. The main requirements include favorable climatic conditions ( such as rains, temperature and evapotranspiration) that are key to crop performance at the end of the season. Different crops have different needs, especially on the amount of water needed. The table below summarizes the crop water needs for the insured crops.

Water requirements double as the crop approaches the vegetative stage from the relatively low water requirements in the germination stage. Thus, the vegetative stage presents the most critical stage for crop growth, where the amount of water needed is critical to developing starch and proteins in preparation for maturity and harvest. Generally, water requirements in crops will reduce as the crops approach maturity stage, however, depending on the amount of growth days for each particular crop, the amount of water requirement at the vegetative stage may vary.

However, for crops to attain maximum productivity, the amount of rainfall required should also be distributed across the crop growing days, and many consecutive dry days should be avoided. When rainfall days do not match the crop growing days, crops face water shortages and their health is compromised mid-season as well as during the maturity stage. During crop growing stages, crops that receive more water content than is required, may be affected by floods/water logging.
On the other hand, when crops receive less water than required or the amount of water lost from the soil is higher than the amount received and retained altogether, crops suffer acute water shortages, and thus a drought and crop stress peril is experienced. Other perils also include abrupt high temperatures, pests, and diseases, among others.

1.2.1 Balancing the crop growing equation

The crop growing equation is a simple mode of describing how different variables including climatic, agro-edaphic factors, farm practices and seed type/variety balance out to provide a mature and ready to harvest crop. Most of these factors cannot be controlled, this is inclusive of factors such as climatic conditions, pests and diseases. The rest of the factors that contain the agro-edaphic factors such as soil nutrient content, slope and farm practices have been controlled in the past, and the availability of information to control the agro-edaphic factors can contribute immensely to crop success. Farm practices are informed by the cultural behavior, which has since shifted with time, based on crop performance. Thus, farm practices can also be standardized to ensure and enhance productivity, based on the type of crops grown within a particular season. Although the mentioned factors above contribute immensely to crop production, climatic factors such as rains, temperature and evapotranspiration still remain major contributors to crop production. Their occurrence and pattern affect how crops perform, as they affect the amount of water that is left for crop consumption. From their historical assessment, perils such as floods and droughts can be assessed and the extent of their effect on crops monitored, and thereby influencing insights for decision making pertaining to indemnifications. The three factors to consider when assessing the crop growth journey and production states that: Ideally, the amount of rainfall should not be more/less than that required by a certain crop, or should be within a required amount. The amount of soil moisture absorbed or retained by the soil should be adequate to sustain crop growth till the next rainfall day. The crop growing days should not be less than the required growing days by a certain crop as influenced by climatic conditions. Ideally, the crop growing days is defined as the number of rainfall days,i.e, days where the amount of rainfall is higher than the amount of water lost through evaporation. The above 3 factors necessitate PULA to be able to assess the effect of operational perils, first as a projected baseline information through the Crop Development Report, and the assessment of loss to identify statistics that payouts can be based on. The next phase highlights results from the assessment of climatic variables on crop health at different stages.

1.3 Field Assessment

Field data is collected at the on set of crop cut exercises to the insured farmers. The assessment focused on summarizing the effect of perils on farmers. The figures below summarises farmer responses and conditions based on field observation.

The plots above shows statistics of farmers affected as a result of flood. Most farmers reported no effect as a result of flood. Generally, the insured area recorded a hot and dry condition, expecting a very huge effect of drought and pests on crops during the dry season.

Drought conditions also affected a majority of farmers, at varying scales, as represented in the graph above.

As observed, pest and diseases had a devastating effect on crops. Many farmers complained of pest effect as represented on the graphs above.

1.4 Remote Sensing Assessment

The rainfall trend shows a comparison between the long term average(expected rainfall amount(LTA)), with the received rainfall amount, observed every 5 days. Whenever the blue line representing LTA is higher than the bar graph, crops are experiencing water stress conditions, while a prolonged received rainfall shows crops are in the verge of experiencing water logging conditions.

Rainfall Trend for AEZ 4

Rainfall Trend for AEZ 1

Rainfall Trend for AEZ 11

Rainfall Trend for AEZ 10

Based on the rainfall assessment in the above AEZs, the short rain season rainfall amount, seemed to be lower than the expected rainfall amount. The expected rainfall amount is represented by Long Term Average Rainfall (LTA) aggregated over the years. When the LTA rainfall and long term rainfall are compared, generally, crops in these areas underwent massive water stress across the season.

1.4.0.1 Vegetation Health Trend in insured areas for WFP Kitui

The maps below shows the relative vegetation health for the insured areas, with red regions showing a tendency of unhealthy vegetation, and green regions shows a tendency of very healthy vegetation. When vegetation maps shows regions with yellow to brown colour code, shows areas being affected by some level of crop stress, thus farmers in these region may harvest as well as affected by operational peril to some extent.

1.4.0.1.1 October 2022 Vegetation health map
1.4.0.1.2 November 2022 Vegetation health map.
1.4.0.1.3 December 2022 Vegetation health map.
1.4.0.1.4 January 2023 Vegetation health map.
1.4.0.1.5 February 2023 Vegetation health map.

Vegetation cover in the insured area tends to be experiencing some level of stress for the monitored months. This confirms the rainfall observation of water stress for an expansive insured areas. Such conditions may lead to farmers experiencing losses on their crops.

1.5 Conclusion and Recommendations

The rainfall assessment for all the AEZ shown above, shows possibility of water stress peril experienced for the better part of the season, except for AEZ 10, with water logging tendencies. Dry conditions also are a primary cause of pest and disease development on crops, due to increased temperatures. These conclusions can be made for most insured AEZs for the short rain season. The crop yield assessment will be done during crop cut exercises and included in the payout report, and will elaborate the effect of perils on payouts.