Actividad Individual 4

Importar la base de datos

# file.choose()
bd <- read.csv("C:\\Users\\L03530621\\Desktop\\arca.csv")

Limpiar la base de datos

bd$Cliente <- as.integer(bd$Cliente)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Enero <- as.integer(bd$Enero)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Febrero <- as.integer(bd$Febrero)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Marzo <- as.integer(bd$Marzo)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Abril <- as.integer(bd$Abril)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Mayo <- as.integer(bd$Mayo)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Junio <- as.integer(bd$Junio)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Julio <- as.integer(bd$Julio)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Agosto <- as.integer(bd$Agosto)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Septiembre <- as.integer(bd$Septiembre)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Octubre <- as.integer(bd$Octubre)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Noviembre <- as.integer(bd$Noviembre)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

bd$Diciembre <- as.integer(bd$Diciembre)

## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion

Regresión Lineal

library(dplyr)

## Warning: package 'dplyr' was built under R version 4.1.3

## 
## Attaching package: 'dplyr'

## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
## 
##     filter, lag

## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
## 
##     intersect, setdiff, setequal, union

bd2 <- filter(bd, TamaÃ.o.Cte.Industria=="Micro")
summary(bd2)

##      ï..ID             AÃ.o       Territorio        Sub.Territorio    
##  Min.   : 58078   Min.   :2016   Length:117110      Length:117110     
##  1st Qu.: 87355   1st Qu.:2016   Class :character   Class :character  
##  Median :175263   Median :2017   Mode  :character   Mode  :character  
##  Mean   :207202   Mean   :2017                                        
##  3rd Qu.:318024   3rd Qu.:2019                                        
##  Max.   :429493   Max.   :2019                                        
##                                                                       
##      CEDI              Cliente         Nombre          TamaÃ.o.Cte.Industria
##  Length:117110      Min.   :   10   Length:117110      Length:117110        
##  Class :character   1st Qu.: 2561   Class :character   Class :character     
##  Mode  :character   Median : 6647   Mode  :character   Mode  :character     
##                     Mean   :19154                                           
##                     3rd Qu.:33410                                           
##                     Max.   :77604                                           
##                                                                             
##  Segmento.Det          Marca           Presentacion         TamaÃ.o         
##  Length:117110      Length:117110      Length:117110      Length:117110     
##  Class :character   Class :character   Class :character   Class :character  
##  Mode  :character   Mode  :character   Mode  :character   Mode  :character  
##                                                                             
##                                                                             
##                                                                             
##                                                                             
##  Retornable_NR          Enero           Febrero           Marzo       
##  Length:117110      Min.   : -7.00   Min.   : -3.00   Min.   : -4.00  
##  Class :character   1st Qu.:  1.00   1st Qu.:  1.00   1st Qu.:  1.00  
##  Mode  :character   Median :  2.00   Median :  2.00   Median :  2.00  
##                     Mean   :  4.48   Mean   :  4.24   Mean   :  4.79  
##                     3rd Qu.:  4.00   3rd Qu.:  4.00   3rd Qu.:  4.00  
##                     Max.   :247.00   Max.   :174.00   Max.   :239.00  
##                     NA's   :76504    NA's   :76009    NA's   :76482   
##      Abril             Mayo            Junio            Julio       
##  Min.   :-11.00   Min.   : -4.00   Min.   :-11.00   Min.   : -3.00  
##  1st Qu.:  1.00   1st Qu.:  1.00   1st Qu.:  1.00   1st Qu.:  1.00  
##  Median :  2.00   Median :  2.00   Median :  2.00   Median :  2.00  
##  Mean   :  5.01   Mean   :  5.06   Mean   :  4.97   Mean   :  4.91  
##  3rd Qu.:  4.00   3rd Qu.:  4.00   3rd Qu.:  4.00   3rd Qu.:  4.00  
##  Max.   :554.00   Max.   :190.00   Max.   :998.00   Max.   :187.00  
##  NA's   :76782    NA's   :75426    NA's   :75787    NA's   :77799   
##      Agosto         Septiembre        Octubre         Noviembre     
##  Min.   :-14.00   Min.   : -8.00   Min.   :-38.00   Min.   :-14.00  
##  1st Qu.:  1.00   1st Qu.:  1.00   1st Qu.:  1.00   1st Qu.:  1.00  
##  Median :  2.00   Median :  2.00   Median :  2.00   Median :  2.00  
##  Mean   :  4.92   Mean   :  4.67   Mean   :  4.72   Mean   :  4.48  
##  3rd Qu.:  4.00   3rd Qu.:  4.00   3rd Qu.:  4.00   3rd Qu.:  4.00  
##  Max.   :254.00   Max.   :251.00   Max.   :144.00   Max.   :134.00  
##  NA's   :76154    NA's   :90913    NA's   :91236    NA's   :92121   
##    Diciembre     
##  Min.   :-17.00  
##  1st Qu.:  1.00  
##  Median :  2.00  
##  Mean   :  4.79  
##  3rd Qu.:  4.00  
##  Max.   :278.00  
##  NA's   :93290

regresion <- lm(Enero ~ Marca + Presentacion + TamaÃ.o + Retornable_NR, data=bd2)

summary(regresion)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = Enero ~ Marca + Presentacion + TamaÃ.o + Retornable_NR, 
##     data = bd2)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -22.046  -1.872  -0.500   0.887 224.954 
## 
## Coefficients: (2 not defined because of singularities)
##                              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                   0.33559    2.97774   0.113 0.910268    
## MarcaAdeS Lácteo            -0.07062    1.78264  -0.040 0.968402    
## MarcaBarista Bros            -3.52890    4.12251  -0.856 0.391999    
## MarcaBebere                  -2.66525    3.89704  -0.684 0.494031    
## MarcaBurn                     0.78786    3.22383   0.244 0.806933    
## MarcaCiel Agua Purificada    -0.53292    3.02581  -0.176 0.860197    
## MarcaCiel Exprim             -2.62607    3.03116  -0.866 0.386299    
## MarcaCiel Mineralizada       -2.07322    3.05568  -0.678 0.497470    
## MarcaCiel Mini                2.11819    3.23076   0.656 0.512064    
## MarcaCiel Saborizada         -2.26129    3.14265  -0.720 0.471806    
## MarcaCoca-Cola                4.93779    2.98184   1.656 0.097739 .  
## MarcaCoca-Cola Life           1.13279    3.03311   0.373 0.708796    
## MarcaCoca-Cola Light          2.50896    2.98450   0.841 0.400543    
## MarcaCoca-Cola Sin Azúcar    1.04258    2.99957   0.348 0.728160    
## MarcaCoca-Cola Zero           1.73682    3.03169   0.573 0.566723    
## MarcaDel Valle               -0.43315    2.83382  -0.153 0.878518    
## MarcaDel Valle Blends        -3.57704    4.11617  -0.869 0.384841    
## MarcaDel Valle Nutridefen    -3.65214    3.47447  -1.051 0.293203    
## MarcaDel Valle Reserva        1.30639    3.04937   0.428 0.668353    
## MarcaDel Valle y Nada        -2.09332    3.00451  -0.697 0.485979    
## MarcaDelaware Punch          -3.15473    3.00857  -1.049 0.294378    
## MarcaFanta                   -3.57542    2.98549  -1.198 0.231081    
## MarcaFresca                  -4.14873    2.98694  -1.389 0.164853    
## MarcaFrutsi                  -2.59626    3.00616  -0.864 0.387787    
## MarcaFuze Tea                -2.46805    2.98722  -0.826 0.408694    
## MarcaFuze Tea Light          -3.26155    3.97524  -0.820 0.411955    
## MarcaGlacéau                -0.75418    3.64690  -0.207 0.836167    
## MarcaManzana Lift            -4.18233    2.98671  -1.400 0.161428    
## MarcaMonster Energy           2.76414    3.12721   0.884 0.376755    
## MarcaPowerade                -2.29486    3.00852  -0.763 0.445596    
## MarcaPowerade Zero           -3.26155    3.15498  -1.034 0.301246    
## MarcaPulpy                   -3.38954    3.15080  -1.076 0.282036    
## MarcaSanta Clara Deslacto    -1.09531    3.10957  -0.352 0.724662    
## MarcaSanta Clara Entera      -0.45895    3.09903  -0.148 0.882270    
## MarcaSanta Clara Light       -0.78050    3.19711  -0.244 0.807135    
## MarcaSanta Clara Saboriza    -0.15733    1.34543  -0.117 0.906912    
## MarcaSenzao                  -2.99364    3.05107  -0.981 0.326512    
## MarcaSidral Mundet           -2.69726    2.99918  -0.899 0.368482    
## MarcaSprite                  -3.34429    2.98520  -1.120 0.262598    
## MarcaSprite Zero             -3.00998    3.03857  -0.991 0.321892    
## MarcaTopo Chico A.M.         -1.73714    3.02939  -0.573 0.566356    
## MarcaValle Frut               0.13773    2.98744   0.046 0.963229    
## Presentacion1 Ltro. Tetra     2.25972    1.48952   1.517 0.129255    
## Presentacion1.250 Lts NR      1.08347    0.36425   2.975 0.002936 ** 
## Presentacion1.5 Lts. NR       1.96573    0.22234   8.841  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion1.5 Lts. Ret      6.01180    0.25840  23.265  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion1.750 Lts NR     -0.30889    0.56599  -0.546 0.585241    
## Presentacion100 ml NR Tetra  -2.48459    1.52049  -1.634 0.102252    
## Presentacion12 Oz. NR Pet    -4.51740    0.38786 -11.647  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion12 Oz. NR Vidrio -0.67811    6.96273  -0.097 0.922416    
## Presentacion12 Oz. Ret       -1.92953    0.43266  -4.460 8.23e-06 ***
## Presentacion125 ml NR Tetra  -2.03776    1.55637  -1.309 0.190438    
## Presentacion2 Lts. NR         4.74016    0.23534  20.142  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion2 Lts. Ret        2.09870    0.57036   3.680 0.000234 ***
## Presentacion2.5 Lts. NR       4.46473    0.26410  16.905  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion2.5 Lts. Ret Pet 16.77254    0.24543  68.339  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion200 ml Tetra     -2.98929    3.22167  -0.928 0.353481    
## Presentacion235 ml NR Vid    -6.02894    0.42516 -14.180  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion237 ml NR Pet    -4.48925    1.47123  -3.051 0.002280 ** 
## Presentacion237 ml NR Vid    -3.54805    2.18943  -1.621 0.105125    
## Presentacion250 ml Tetra     -2.38707    1.00896  -2.366 0.017993 *  
## Presentacion250 ml. NR PET    0.61364    0.42311   1.450 0.146982    
## Presentacion250 ML. NR VID   -2.11076    1.11686  -1.890 0.058778 .  
## Presentacion3 Lts. NR         5.73666    2.47967   2.313 0.020701 *  
## Presentacion300 ML. NR PET   -4.23494    0.95019  -4.457 8.34e-06 ***
## Presentacion350 ML NR PET    -2.38233    4.90786  -0.485 0.627387    
## Presentacion355 Ml NR Pet    -0.65506    1.49034  -0.440 0.660273    
## Presentacion400 ml NR         0.49512    0.36135   1.370 0.170632    
## Presentacion413 ml NR VId    -1.10982    0.98418  -1.128 0.259471    
## Presentacion473 ml NR              NA         NA      NA       NA    
## Presentacion5 Lts. NR         6.08621    1.10281   5.519 3.43e-08 ***
## Presentacion500 ml NR PET    -1.84289    0.41366  -4.455 8.41e-06 ***
## Presentacion500 ml NR Vidrio -2.95879    0.36603  -8.083 6.47e-16 ***
## Presentacion500 ml Ret        4.40968    0.33915  13.002  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion6.5 Oz. Ret      -6.69590    1.22086  -5.485 4.17e-08 ***
## Presentacion600 ml NR         0.84630    0.30222   2.800 0.005108 ** 
## Presentacion710 ml NR        -2.95304    3.12043  -0.946 0.343972    
## Presentacion8 Oz. NR         -6.21269    0.42867 -14.493  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion946 ml NR Tetra   0.51789    2.64182   0.196 0.844582    
## PresentacionLata             -5.21036    0.41438 -12.574  < 2e-16 ***
## PresentacionLata 16 Oz.      -5.90542    0.58748 -10.052  < 2e-16 ***
## PresentacionLata 222 ml      -0.44720    4.92249  -0.091 0.927613    
## PresentacionLata 235 ml      -4.05160    0.39009 -10.386  < 2e-16 ***
## PresentacionLata 237 ml      -4.20311    7.05089  -0.596 0.551104    
## PresentacionLata 335 ml      -2.41068    1.80466  -1.336 0.181619    
## PresentacionLata 340 ml      -2.50006    2.22531  -1.123 0.261246    
## PresentacionLata 450 ml      -3.20311    1.63674  -1.957 0.050353 .  
## PresentacionLata 453 ml      -1.84838    1.90027  -0.973 0.330713    
## PresentacionLATA 680 ML       0.05280    3.49351   0.015 0.987942    
## PresentacionLata 8 OZ.        0.39744    1.58511   0.251 0.802024    
## TamaÃ.oIndividual             3.07966    0.36006   8.553  < 2e-16 ***
## Retornable_NRRetornable            NA         NA      NA       NA    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 6.936 on 40516 degrees of freedom
##   (76504 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.3804, Adjusted R-squared:  0.3791 
## F-statistic: 279.5 on 89 and 40516 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Evaluar, y en caso necesario, ajustar la Regresión Lineal

regresion_ajustada <- lm(Enero ~ Segmento.Det + Presentacion + TamaÃ.o, data=bd2)

summary(regresion_ajustada)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = Enero ~ Segmento.Det + Presentacion + TamaÃ.o, data = bd2)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -22.046  -2.076  -0.595   0.924 224.954 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                  Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                      -1.02498    0.45311  -2.262  0.02370 *  
## Segmento.DetAgua Purificada       1.37679    0.50259   2.739  0.00616 ** 
## Segmento.DetAgua Saborizada      -0.30267    0.56938  -0.532  0.59502    
## Segmento.DetBebidas de Fruta      0.71173    0.45116   1.578  0.11468    
## Segmento.DetBebidas de Soya       1.41149    2.77094   0.509  0.61048    
## Segmento.DetBebidas Energeticas   3.55121    0.82388   4.310 1.63e-05 ***
## Segmento.DetCafe Listo Para Bebe -0.61215    2.87457  -0.213  0.83136    
## Segmento.DetColas Light           3.82549    0.45225   8.459  < 2e-16 ***
## Segmento.DetColas Regular         6.73066    0.43090  15.620  < 2e-16 ***
## Segmento.DetIsotónicos Light    -1.32920    1.09404  -1.215  0.22439    
## Segmento.DetIsotónicos Regular  -0.41929    0.49576  -0.846  0.39770    
## Segmento.DetJugos y Néctares     1.42451    0.63892   2.230  0.02578 *  
## Segmento.DetLeche UHT Especializ  0.76234    1.43278   0.532  0.59468    
## Segmento.DetLeche UHT Regular     1.32321    1.38665   0.954  0.33996    
## Segmento.DetLeche UHT Saborizada  1.26633    3.06592   0.413  0.67958    
## Segmento.DetSabores Light        -1.06962    0.57087  -1.874  0.06098 .  
## Segmento.DetSabores Regular      -1.65506    0.42076  -3.933 8.39e-05 ***
## Segmento.DetTé Light            -1.32920    2.65820  -0.500  0.61705    
## Segmento.DetTé Regular          -0.53880    0.50531  -1.066  0.28631    
## Presentacion1 Ltro. Tetra         1.76263    1.24398   1.417  0.15651    
## Presentacion1.250 Lts NR          0.65117    0.36204   1.799  0.07208 .  
## Presentacion1.5 Lts. NR           1.59668    0.21801   7.324 2.46e-13 ***
## Presentacion1.5 Lts. Ret          5.57937    0.25481  21.896  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion1.750 Lts NR         -0.74119    0.56514  -1.312  0.18970    
## Presentacion100 ml NR Tetra      -2.19047    1.41045  -1.553  0.12042    
## Presentacion12 Oz. NR Pet        -4.29893    0.38201 -11.253  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion12 Oz. NR Vidrio     -0.64382    6.96658  -0.092  0.92637    
## Presentacion12 Oz. Ret           -1.99479    0.42936  -4.646 3.40e-06 ***
## Presentacion125 ml NR Tetra      -2.22458    1.34928  -1.649  0.09921 .  
## Presentacion2 Lts. NR             4.34058    0.23042  18.837  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion2 Lts. Ret            1.69384    0.56960   2.974  0.00294 ** 
## Presentacion2.5 Lts. NR           3.95996    0.25971  15.248  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion2.5 Lts. Ret Pet     16.34023    0.24161  67.631  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion200 ml Tetra         -2.64152    3.07000  -0.860  0.38956    
## Presentacion235 ml NR Vid        -6.04720    0.42120 -14.357  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion237 ml NR Pet        -2.89592    1.40592  -2.060  0.03942 *  
## Presentacion237 ml NR Vid        -4.46932    2.12572  -2.102  0.03552 *  
## Presentacion250 ml Tetra         -2.47330    0.60345  -4.099 4.16e-05 ***
## Presentacion250 ml. NR PET       -0.53167    0.37288  -1.426  0.15392    
## Presentacion250 ML. NR VID       -2.19699    0.77092  -2.850  0.00438 ** 
## Presentacion3 Lts. NR             6.05504    2.46437   2.457  0.01401 *  
## Presentacion300 ML. NR PET       -1.68082    0.66244  -2.537  0.01117 *  
## Presentacion350 ML NR PET        -2.52062    4.91639  -0.513  0.60817    
## Presentacion355 Ml NR Pet        -0.79334    1.49280  -0.531  0.59511    
## Presentacion400 ml NR             0.19389    0.35483   0.546  0.58478    
## Presentacion413 ml NR VId        -1.19742    0.58135  -2.060  0.03943 *  
## Presentacion473 ml NR            -1.60555    2.48130  -0.647  0.51760    
## Presentacion5 Lts. NR             5.53707    1.10131   5.028 4.98e-07 ***
## Presentacion500 ml NR PET        -2.02855    0.40887  -4.961 7.03e-07 ***
## Presentacion500 ml NR Vidrio     -2.93297    0.36139  -8.116 4.96e-16 ***
## Presentacion500 ml Ret            4.21004    0.33390  12.609  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion6.5 Oz. Ret          -6.71734    1.22149  -5.499 3.84e-08 ***
## Presentacion600 ml NR             0.68538    0.29883   2.294  0.02182 *  
## Presentacion710 ml NR            -2.97448    3.12530  -0.952  0.34123    
## Presentacion8 Oz. NR             -6.15745    0.42505 -14.487  < 2e-16 ***
## Presentacion946 ml NR Tetra       0.43167    2.51917   0.171  0.86395    
## PresentacionLata                 -5.24910    0.41074 -12.780  < 2e-16 ***
## PresentacionLata 16 Oz.          -5.66742    0.56110 -10.101  < 2e-16 ***
## PresentacionLata 222 ml          -0.60503    4.93059  -0.123  0.90234    
## PresentacionLata 235 ml          -4.17525    0.38150 -10.944  < 2e-16 ***
## PresentacionLata 237 ml          -5.19503    6.99125  -0.743  0.45744    
## PresentacionLata 335 ml          -2.49690    1.61578  -1.545  0.12228    
## PresentacionLata 340 ml          -5.03401    1.00660  -5.001 5.73e-07 ***
## PresentacionLata 450 ml          -4.19503    1.29495  -3.240  0.00120 ** 
## PresentacionLata 453 ml          -1.95250    1.79909  -1.085  0.27781    
## PresentacionLATA 680 ML          -0.10503    3.49890  -0.030  0.97605    
## PresentacionLata 8 OZ.            0.01123    1.58639   0.007  0.99435    
## TamaÃ.oIndividual                 2.66880    0.35196   7.583 3.46e-14 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 6.948 on 40538 degrees of freedom
##   (76504 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.3779, Adjusted R-squared:  0.3769 
## F-statistic: 367.6 on 67 and 40538 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

plot(regresion_ajustada)

## Warning: not plotting observations with leverage one:
##   4719

## Warning in sqrt(crit * p * (1 - hh)/hh): NaNs produced

## Warning in sqrt(crit * p * (1 - hh)/hh): NaNs produced

Construir un Modelo de Predicción

datos_nuevos <- data.frame(Segmento.Det= "Colas Regular", Presentacion= "2.5 Lts. Ret Pet", TamaÃ.o="Familiar")
predict(regresion_ajustada,datos_nuevos)

##        1 
## 22.04592

Conclusiones

En conclusión podemos realizar regresiones lineales para generar modelos predictivos de variables de interés como las ventas. En este caso, se recomienda tener más variables y de mayor impacto sobre las ventas para que el modelo sea más confiable (actualmente 38%).