Last issue

Included this week:

  • Flash HICP
  • National Accounts
  • Unemployment
  • Retail Sales Index
  • Earnings and Labour Costs
  • Production in Construction Index
  • Ukrainian Immigrants

Flash HICP

Last week we had HICP for January 2023, the Flash estimate which will be influential for the rate decision later this month can be seen below.

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Core inflation increased in February, headline inflation was unchanged. - This increases the probability of higher interest rates.

The left panel shows the Euro Area HICP. The panel on the right show a line chart of the monthly movement and the 1 and 2 standard deviations above and below zero for the entire series which dates back to 1997.

The left panel shows the Euro Area HICP. The panel on the right show a line chart of the monthly movement and the 1 and 2 standard deviations above and below zero for the entire series which dates back to 1997.


Four of the five countries tick upwards on headline, core showing no signs of disinflation.


National Accounts

Detailed series on the national accounts were released on Friday the 3rd of March, some of these can be seen below. A more detailed comparison of these series and how Ireland compares to European countries will follow next week.

GDP

Financial Account

Current Account

Unemployment

Headline


Live Register

A negative value indicates a decrease in the number of people on the live register. The closer the value to zero indicates that it is decreasing at a slower rate, as is the case generally above.

A negative value indicates a decrease in the number of people on the live register. The closer the value to zero indicates that it is decreasing at a slower rate, as is the case generally above.


Retail Sales

Retail Sales Index

Series seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation. On a three month variation the index is approaching decline. - This has been obviously a very noisey series post 2020.

Series seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation. On a three month variation the index is approaching decline. - This has been obviously a very noisey series post 2020.



Online Turnover

No data was available for the sale of books, newspapers and stationary or pharmaceuticals and cosmetics.

No data was available for the sale of books, newspapers and stationary or pharmaceuticals and cosmetics.


Earnings & Labour Costs

Wage Index

Real term pay cuts - Inflation continues to outpace wage growth

Inflation has outpaced inflation over the last 18 months. CPI although pulling back in the latest quarter is proving 'stickier' than policy makers would like. The latest wage data lags inflation data.

Inflation has outpaced inflation over the last 18 months. CPI although pulling back in the latest quarter is proving ‘stickier’ than policy makers would like. The latest wage data lags inflation data.

Public Sector Pay



NACE Sector Pay


Construction Production

Total Sample

Post 2018

Residential building is yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

Residential building is yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.


Ukrainian Refugees

Over 70,000 Ukrainians have arrived in Ireland since the conflict began.