Evaluating Forecasts from 14 August 2015
J. James Reade
17/08/2015
Introduction
This is the first evaluation of forecasts for the 2015–2016 season. Each week we will consider absolute forecast quality, and do on an evolving basis since each week we have more and more forecasts, and also we will evaluate bookmaker forecasts for their absolute forecast quality
English Premier League
We first present outcome plots; we present the same information as with our forecasts, but add outcomes. Hence the black squares represent outcomes.
Hence the strongest home banker, Swansea, turned out right as they won comfortably against Newcastle.
As well as graphically inspecting forecasts and outcomes, it is important to numerically analyse forecasts. In the following table we present mean errors, mean squared errors, and mean absolute errors, both for our model forecasts and for the average bookmaker forecast. In time this will be expanded for a much fuller analysis of bookmaker prices. To calculate these errors we treat each of the three events in a football match as a separate binary event, 1 if the event occurred and zero otherwise, and compare that to the probabilistic forecast from either our model or the bookmakers.
| Home | Draw | Away | Home (bk) | Draw (bk) | Away (bk) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | -0.1996641 | -0.0485641 | 0.2482282 | -0.1941289 | -0.0629784 | 0.2171012 |
| Mean squared | 0.1829494 | 0.1755296 | 0.2726732 | 0.1909160 | 0.1765952 | 0.2365422 |
| Mean absolute | 0.4230329 | 0.3728731 | 0.4828399 | 0.4173151 | 0.3802347 | 0.4422676 |
These measures are also relative; hence comparing the model to bookmakers is important to get some sense of how relatively well our model forecast. The numbers are very similar suggesting a similar performance.
We also want to get some sense of how well forecasts are calibrated; do events that have a forecast probability of 50% of occurring happen 50% of the time? One way to consider this is to plot the frequency with which bets at particular probabilities pay out; doing so on a two-dimensional axis should, if forecasts are well calibrated, lead to many points around the 45-degree line. Such analysis naturally relies on having a lot of forecasts to consider, and as such the individual divisional analysis may give a misleading picture for the first few weeks of the season. Below is the Premier League plot:
This plot suggests that the range of our model forecasts was not particularly greatly less than that of the bookmakers, and that with such a small number of forecasts it is difficult to draw conclusions, as there is not a sufficient number of observations for mean outcomes to manifest themselves.
French Ligue 1
We added French matches, and the outcome plot is given below:
Strong favourites Monaco drew with Lille, while the other strong home bankers, PSG, won against Ajaccio.
Considering forecast errors:
| Home | Draw | Away | Home (bk) | Draw (bk) | Away (bk) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | -0.0406164 | 0.2133656 | -0.1727492 | -0.0932893 | 0.2146223 | -0.1757543 |
| Mean squared | 0.2257636 | 0.2941889 | 0.1045403 | 0.2534155 | 0.2816140 | 0.0984775 |
| Mean absolute | 0.4663597 | 0.4982878 | 0.2994577 | 0.4749207 | 0.4818403 | 0.2832942 |
Again, the numbers are not dissimilar between our model and the average bookmaker.
The calibration plot we provide next:
Bookmakers have a much broader range of probabilities than our model, although performance relative to the 45-degree line is similar in both sets of forecasts.
German Bundesliga
In Germany, Bayern and Bayer Leverkusen, and Wolfsburg won their matches, while the other strongly favoured home team, Mainz, lost.
Considering forecast errors, again there is no great difference between the model and bookmakers:
| Home | Draw | Away | Home (bk) | Draw (bk) | Away (bk) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | -0.0203093 | -0.1584410 | 0.1787503 | -0.1180739 | -0.1420202 | 0.2088556 |
| Mean squared | 0.2183974 | 0.1192474 | 0.2880357 | 0.1562162 | 0.1113202 | 0.2415647 |
| Mean absolute | 0.4544132 | 0.3155931 | 0.4748382 | 0.3753152 | 0.2962787 | 0.4096722 |
Calibration plot:
As with the French league, there is a much greater spread of bookmaker probabilities, but again both model and bookmaker forecasts roughly assemble along the 45-degree line.
Overall
The forecast error and calibration information is arguably more informative with a larger sample; hence here we construct the same table and graph but for all our matches.
| Home | Draw | Away | Home (bk) | Draw (bk) | Away (bk) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | -0.0440155 | 0.0681513 | -0.0241358 | -0.1660344 | 0.0709324 | 0.0448525 |
| Mean squared | 0.2338581 | 0.2283650 | 0.1933807 | 0.2075882 | 0.2239319 | 0.1797313 |
| Mean absolute | 0.4734455 | 0.4258538 | 0.3992496 | 0.4359728 | 0.4229355 | 0.3681419 |
We also want to get some sense of how well forecasts are calibrated; do events that have a forecast probability of 50% of occurring happen 50% of the time? Such analysis naturally relies on having a lot of forecasts to consider, and as such the individual divisional analysis may give a misleading picture for the first few weeks of the season.
Finally, we consider a small number of betting strategies, and whether they would have been profitable.
We consider firstly backing strong home bankers, and strong away bankers. If a home team is 30% more likely than the away team to win, we back them, and if the away team is 20% more likely than the home team, we back them.
Second, we attempt a relative strategy; if our probability of a home win is greater than a bookmaker’s, we back that team to win; similarly for away teams. In each case, we notionally consider a one pound bet placed with the bookmaker offering the best odds for the home or away win, depending on the case.
| Total number of home matches | Home return | Total number of away matches | Away return | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| all | 8 | 0.8099206 | 0 | 0 |
| Total number of home matches | Home return | Total number of away matches | Away return | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| all | 15 | -4.747619 | 27 | -6.291093 |
Hence the strategy of backing relative favourites according to our model appears to do badly, with considerably negative returns. However, the strategy of backing overwhelming favourites (according to our model) does result in a positive return.
Conclusions
This is a tentative first foray into forecasting outside of England, and I hope to refine this, with bookmaker prices, and an evaluation of previous forecasts, in the coming weeks.
For transparency, all forecasts with outcomes are also listed below:
| date | division | team1 | goals1 | goals2 | team2 | Ph | Pd | Pa | outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2015-08-14 | English Premier | aston villa | 0 | 1 | man utd | 0.3416423 | 0.2781537 | 0.3802040 | 0.0 |
| 117 | 2015-08-14 | French Division 1 | monaco | 0 | 0 | lille | 0.5433425 | 0.2620028 | 0.1946547 | 0.5 |
| 22 | 2015-08-14 | German Bundesliga 1 | b munich | 5 | 0 | hamburg | 0.5991464 | 0.2356370 | 0.1652165 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | afc fylde | 2 | 2 | gainsborough | 0.4828998 | 0.2628818 | 0.2542184 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | alfreton | 1 | 1 | brackley | 0.4440552 | 0.2709760 | 0.2849688 | 0.5 |
| 24 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | boston utd | 2 | 1 | curzon ashton | 0.4315869 | 0.2730104 | 0.2954027 | 1.0 |
| 47 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | corby | 2 | 2 | chorley | 0.5017243 | 0.2580721 | 0.2402036 | 0.5 |
| 61 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | fc utd | 1 | 1 | tamworth | 0.3627816 | 0.2785975 | 0.3586208 | 0.5 |
| 77 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | harrogate t | 3 | 1 | hednesford | 0.4303602 | 0.2731949 | 0.2964449 | 1.0 |
| 121 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | nth ferriby | 1 | 1 | solihull moors | 0.4124404 | 0.2755585 | 0.3120011 | 0.5 |
| 122 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | nuneaton | 1 | 0 | bradford pa | 0.4240408 | 0.2740998 | 0.3018594 | 1.0 |
| 144 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | stalybridge | 1 | 0 | gloucester | 0.3863398 | 0.2778323 | 0.3358279 | 1.0 |
| 158 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | telford | 0 | 1 | stockport | 0.4046284 | 0.2763887 | 0.3189829 | 0.0 |
| 178 | 2015-08-15 | Conference North | worcester | 2 | 1 | lowestoft t | 0.3454117 | 0.2783151 | 0.3762732 | 1.0 |
| 11 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | basingstoke | 1 | 1 | bishop’s st. | 0.4531646 | 0.2693109 | 0.2775245 | 0.5 |
| 38 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | chelmsford | 4 | 0 | hayes & y | 0.4146391 | 0.2753025 | 0.3100583 | 1.0 |
| 51 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | dartford | 2 | 2 | sutton utd | 0.4238986 | 0.2741193 | 0.3019821 | 0.5 |
| 78 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | havant & w | 2 | 0 | margate | 0.3942139 | 0.2772985 | 0.3284876 | 1.0 |
| 104 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | maidenhead | 0 | 0 | gosport bor | 0.3710871 | 0.2784740 | 0.3504389 | 0.5 |
| 105 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | maidstone | 0 | 1 | oxford c | 0.3576471 | 0.2785915 | 0.3637614 | 0.0 |
| 143 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | st albans | 0 | 2 | ebbsfleet | 0.3749851 | 0.2783604 | 0.3466545 | 0.0 |
| 164 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | truro city | 2 | 1 | concord r | 0.3593043 | 0.2786004 | 0.3620953 | 1.0 |
| 167 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | wealdstone | 0 | 1 | eastbourne | 0.4396862 | 0.2717215 | 0.2885922 | 0.0 |
| 170 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | weston s m. | 2 | 4 | hemel | 0.2869415 | 0.2713871 | 0.4416714 | 0.0 |
| 173 | 2015-08-15 | Conference South | whitehawk | 0 | 1 | bath city | 0.5078454 | 0.2563916 | 0.2357630 | 0.0 |
| 29 | 2015-08-15 | English Championship | bristol c | 2 | 4 | brentford | 0.4544576 | 0.2690626 | 0.2764798 | 0.0 |
| 33 | 2015-08-15 | English Championship | burnley | 2 | 2 | birmingham | 0.4249718 | 0.2739713 | 0.3010569 | 0.5 |
| 52 | 2015-08-15 | English Championship | derby | 1 | 1 | charlton | 0.4011069 | 0.2767218 | 0.3221713 | 0.5 |
| 65 | 2015-08-15 | English Championship | fulham | 1 | 2 | brighton | 0.4590187 | 0.2681635 | 0.2728178 | 0.0 |
| 85 | 2015-08-15 | English Championship | huddersfield | 1 | 1 | blackburn | 0.3587091 | 0.2785980 | 0.3626929 | 0.5 |
| 92 | 2015-08-15 | English Championship | ipswich | 2 | 1 | sheff wed | 0.4446177 | 0.2708775 | 0.2845049 | 1.0 |
| 114 | 2015-08-15 | English Championship | middlesbro | 3 | 0 | bolton | 0.5578920 | 0.2406614 | 0.2014466 | 1.0 |
| 116 | 2015-08-15 | English Championship | mk dons | 0 | 1 | preston | 0.4312292 | 0.2730645 | 0.2957063 | 0.0 |
| 120 | 2015-08-15 | English Championship | nottm forest | 2 | 1 | rotherham | 0.4106031 | 0.2757649 | 0.3136319 | 1.0 |
| 127 | 2015-08-15 | English Championship | qpr | 2 | 2 | cardiff | 0.4042484 | 0.2764259 | 0.3193258 | 0.5 |
| 140 | 2015-08-15 | English Premier | southampton | 0 | 3 | everton | 0.4208487 | 0.2745277 | 0.3046237 | 0.0 |
| 152 | 2015-08-15 | English Premier | sunderland | 1 | 3 | norwich | 0.4280782 | 0.2735305 | 0.2983913 | 0.0 |
| 156 | 2015-08-15 | English Premier | swansea | 2 | 0 | newcastle | 0.5556234 | 0.2414472 | 0.2029295 | 1.0 |
| 161 | 2015-08-15 | English Premier | tottenham | 2 | 2 | stoke | 0.4509794 | 0.2697238 | 0.2792968 | 0.5 |
| 165 | 2015-08-15 | English Premier | watford | 0 | 0 | west brom | 0.4445718 | 0.2708855 | 0.2845427 | 0.5 |
| 169 | 2015-08-15 | English Premier | west ham | 1 | 2 | leicester | 0.3494454 | 0.2784477 | 0.3721069 | 0.0 |
| 6 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | ashton utd | 0 | 0 | mickleover s | 0.4991383 | 0.2587652 | 0.2420965 | 0.5 |
| 10 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | barwell | 0 | 1 | blyth sptns | 0.3690893 | 0.2785186 | 0.3523921 | 0.0 |
| 34 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | buxton | 2 | 0 | darlington | 0.4244586 | 0.2740424 | 0.3014991 | 1.0 |
| 63 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | frickley | 1 | 2 | matlock | 0.3415797 | 0.2781507 | 0.3802696 | 0.0 |
| 74 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | halesowen | 1 | 0 | colwyn bay | 0.3315698 | 0.2775402 | 0.3908899 | 1.0 |
| 89 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | hyde | 2 | 2 | grantham town | 0.3850439 | 0.2779071 | 0.3370489 | 0.5 |
| 90 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | ilkeston | 1 | 3 | skelmersdale | 0.5060953 | 0.2568778 | 0.2370269 | 0.0 |
| 118 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | nantwich town | 6 | 3 | stamford | 0.4890251 | 0.2613773 | 0.2495975 | 1.0 |
| 134 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | rushall olympic | 2 | 0 | ramsbottom | 0.5380861 | 0.2472952 | 0.2146187 | 1.0 |
| 135 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | salford city | 0 | 0 | marine | 0.3780756 | 0.2782454 | 0.3436790 | 0.5 |
| 172 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | whitby | 4 | 0 | stourbridge | 0.5296630 | 0.2499578 | 0.2203792 | 1.0 |
| 179 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik N Premier | workington | 1 | 1 | sutton coldfield | 0.5399303 | 0.2466994 | 0.2133703 | 0.5 |
| 16 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | biggleswade t | 1 | 1 | redditch | 0.3849240 | 0.2779139 | 0.3371621 | 0.5 |
| 40 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | chesham | 2 | 1 | paulton | 0.3622316 | 0.2785999 | 0.3591685 | 1.0 |
| 42 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | chippenham | 5 | 0 | bedworth utd | 0.5365452 | 0.2477895 | 0.2156652 | 1.0 |
| 44 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | cirencester | 0 | 0 | hitchin | 0.4451734 | 0.2707796 | 0.2840470 | 0.5 |
| 64 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | frome town | 0 | 4 | cambridge c | 0.3721259 | 0.2784472 | 0.3494269 | 0.0 |
| 83 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | histon | 0 | 3 | leamington | 0.4075151 | 0.2760964 | 0.3163885 | 0.0 |
| 88 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | hungerford t | 2 | 3 | dorchester | 0.4466774 | 0.2705119 | 0.2828107 | 0.0 |
| 93 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | kettering | 3 | 2 | merthyr | 0.3321490 | 0.2775828 | 0.3902681 | 1.0 |
| 95 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | king’s lynn | 0 | 1 | bideford | 0.3914686 | 0.2774999 | 0.3310315 | 0.0 |
| 147 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | st neots town | 2 | 3 | poole town | 0.4647516 | 0.2669825 | 0.2682659 | 0.0 |
| 150 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | stratford town | 1 | 1 | slough | 0.5701178 | 0.2363154 | 0.1935668 | 0.5 |
| 171 | 2015-08-15 | Evo-Stik S Premier | weymouth | 0 | 0 | dunstable | 0.4376204 | 0.2720618 | 0.2903178 | 0.5 |
| 27 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | braintree | 0 | 0 | tranmere | 0.4426581 | 0.2712182 | 0.2861237 | 0.5 |
| 39 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | cheltenham | 3 | 0 | southport | 0.3566939 | 0.2785833 | 0.3647228 | 1.0 |
| 55 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | dover | 0 | 0 | chester | 0.4306257 | 0.2731552 | 0.2962191 | 0.5 |
| 58 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | eastleigh | 1 | 1 | lincoln | 0.5654022 | 0.2380138 | 0.1965840 | 0.5 |
| 62 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | forest green | 4 | 0 | barrow | 0.4656095 | 0.2668010 | 0.2675896 | 1.0 |
| 67 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | gateshead | 2 | 1 | boreham w | 0.3422217 | 0.2781809 | 0.3795974 | 1.0 |
| 71 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | grimsby | 4 | 1 | bromley | 0.5509458 | 0.2430464 | 0.2060079 | 1.0 |
| 73 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | guiseley | 1 | 0 | kidderminster | 0.5006434 | 0.2583631 | 0.2409936 | 1.0 |
| 75 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | halifax | 2 | 3 | torquay | 0.3695941 | 0.2785082 | 0.3518978 | 0.0 |
| 103 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | macclesfield | 2 | 1 | welling | 0.4770407 | 0.2642647 | 0.2586945 | 1.0 |
| 174 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | woking | 2 | 0 | altrincham | 0.5467510 | 0.2444563 | 0.2087926 | 1.0 |
| 180 | 2015-08-15 | Football Conference | wrexham | 3 | 0 | aldershot | 0.5179777 | 0.2534884 | 0.2285339 | 1.0 |
| 5 | 2015-08-15 | French Division 1 | angers | 0 | 0 | nantes | 0.4269691 | 0.2945501 | 0.2784808 | 0.5 |
| 35 | 2015-08-15 | French Division 1 | caen | 1 | 0 | toulouse | 0.4325916 | 0.2935139 | 0.2738945 | 1.0 |
| 72 | 2015-08-15 | French Division 1 | guingamp | 0 | 1 | lyon | 0.3320802 | 0.3014627 | 0.3664571 | 0.0 |
| 132 | 2015-08-15 | French Division 1 | rennes | 1 | 0 | montpellier | 0.4351820 | 0.2930159 | 0.2718021 | 1.0 |
| 146 | 2015-08-15 | French Division 1 | st etienne | 1 | 1 | bordeaux | 0.4534094 | 0.2891537 | 0.2574369 | 0.5 |
| 163 | 2015-08-15 | French Division 1 | troyes | 3 | 3 | nice | 0.4290555 | 0.2941728 | 0.2767717 | 0.5 |
| 8 | 2015-08-15 | German Bundesliga 1 | augsburg | 0 | 1 | hertha berlin | 0.4740342 | 0.2788490 | 0.2471168 | 0.0 |
| 13 | 2015-08-15 | German Bundesliga 1 | b dortmund | 4 | 0 | mgladbach | 0.3002386 | 0.2916658 | 0.4080956 | 1.0 |
| 20 | 2015-08-15 | German Bundesliga 1 | b leverkusen | 2 | 1 | hoffenheim | 0.5716559 | 0.2469032 | 0.1814408 | 1.0 |
| 106 | 2015-08-15 | German Bundesliga 1 | mainz | 0 | 1 | ingolstadt | 0.5679046 | 0.2483706 | 0.1837248 | 0.0 |
| 155 | 2015-08-15 | German Bundesliga 1 | sv darmstadt | 2 | 2 | hannover | 0.3086654 | 0.2928155 | 0.3985191 | 0.5 |
| 166 | 2015-08-15 | German Bundesliga 1 | w bremen | 0 | 3 | schalke | 0.3783127 | 0.2945782 | 0.3271091 | 0.0 |
| 17 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | billericay | 3 | 0 | enfield town | 0.3842455 | 0.2779514 | 0.3378031 | 1.0 |
| 28 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | brentwood t | 2 | 0 | vcd athletic | 0.3398903 | 0.2780662 | 0.3820435 | 1.0 |
| 32 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | burgess hill t | 1 | 2 | grays | 0.3509852 | 0.2784874 | 0.3705273 | 0.0 |
| 37 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | canvey isl. | 1 | 1 | bognor regis | 0.3763052 | 0.2783139 | 0.3453809 | 0.5 |
| 60 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | farnborough | NA | NA | wingate & f | 0.3401955 | 0.2780820 | 0.3817225 | NA |
| 76 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | hampton & r | 2 | 1 | e thurrock | 0.4186695 | 0.2748083 | 0.3065222 | 1.0 |
| 82 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | hendon | 1 | 1 | dulwich h | 0.5110312 | 0.2554949 | 0.2334739 | 0.5 |
| 96 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | kingstonian | 7 | 0 | met. police | 0.3378343 | 0.2779532 | 0.3842125 | 1.0 |
| 98 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | lewes | 1 | 1 | harrow boro | 0.3142159 | 0.2758370 | 0.4099471 | 0.5 |
| 111 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | merstham | 0 | 2 | leiston | 0.3815830 | 0.2780888 | 0.3403283 | 0.0 |
| 142 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | staines | 1 | 0 | leatherhead | 0.3021464 | 0.2741453 | 0.4237083 | 1.0 |
| 159 | 2015-08-15 | Ryman Premier | tonbridge | 3 | 3 | needham m | 0.4276282 | 0.2735955 | 0.2987763 | 0.5 |
| 129 | 2015-08-16 | English Championship | reading | 0 | 0 | leeds | 0.3927535 | 0.2774076 | 0.3298388 | 0.5 |
| 176 | 2015-08-16 | English Championship | wolves | 1 | 1 | hull | 0.4687234 | 0.2661316 | 0.2651450 | 0.5 |
| 48 | 2015-08-16 | English Premier | c palace | 1 | 2 | arsenal | 0.3665707 | 0.2785614 | 0.3548679 | 0.0 |
| 107 | 2015-08-16 | English Premier | man city | 3 | 0 | chelsea | 0.4392172 | 0.2717995 | 0.2889834 | 1.0 |
| 101 | 2015-08-16 | French Division 1 | lorient | 1 | 1 | bastia | 0.3500238 | 0.3018539 | 0.3481222 | 0.5 |
| 124 | 2015-08-16 | French Division 1 | paris st g. | 2 | 0 | gfc ajaccio | 0.6022083 | 0.2381522 | 0.1596395 | 1.0 |
| 131 | 2015-08-16 | French Division 1 | reims | 1 | 0 | marseille | 0.4013017 | 0.2984663 | 0.3002320 | 1.0 |
| 151 | 2015-08-16 | German Bundesliga 1 | stuttgart | 1 | 3 | cologne | 0.4073345 | 0.2917643 | 0.3009012 | 0.0 |
| 175 | 2015-08-16 | German Bundesliga 1 | wolfsburg | 2 | 1 | e frankfurt | 0.5754913 | 0.2453852 | 0.1791235 | 1.0 |
| 49 | 2015-08-17 | Conference North | curzon ashton | NA | NA | harrogate t | 0.4453126 | 0.2707550 | 0.2839324 | NA |
| 154 | 2015-08-17 | Conference South | sutton utd | NA | NA | truro city | 0.3850620 | 0.2779061 | 0.3370319 | NA |
| 100 | 2015-08-17 | English Premier | liverpool | NA | NA | bournemouth | 0.4957999 | 0.2596449 | 0.2445552 | NA |
| 149 | 2015-08-17 | Evo-Stik N Premier | stourbridge | NA | NA | nantwich town | 0.3046169 | 0.2745266 | 0.4208564 | NA |
| 84 | 2015-08-17 | Evo-Stik S Premier | hitchin | NA | NA | king’s lynn | 0.4938723 | 0.2601451 | 0.2459826 | NA |
| 130 | 2015-08-17 | Evo-Stik S Premier | redditch | NA | NA | hungerford t | 0.3565995 | 0.2785824 | 0.3648181 | NA |
| 25 | 2015-08-18 | Conference North | brackley | NA | NA | boston utd | 0.3622517 | 0.2785999 | 0.3591485 | NA |
| 43 | 2015-08-18 | Conference North | chorley | NA | NA | fc utd | 0.3833299 | 0.2780004 | 0.3386697 | NA |
| 66 | 2015-08-18 | Conference North | gainsborough | NA | NA | stalybridge | 0.4136970 | 0.2754134 | 0.3108896 | NA |
| 68 | 2015-08-18 | Conference North | gloucester | NA | NA | alfreton | 0.4255862 | 0.2738856 | 0.3005282 | NA |
| 80 | 2015-08-18 | Conference North | hednesford | NA | NA | corby | 0.3320577 | 0.2775762 | 0.3903661 | NA |
| 102 | 2015-08-18 | Conference North | lowestoft t | NA | NA | nuneaton | 0.4548132 | 0.2689938 | 0.2761931 | NA |
| 139 | 2015-08-18 | Conference North | solihull moors | NA | NA | worcester | 0.4644615 | 0.2670436 | 0.2684949 | NA |
| 148 | 2015-08-18 | Conference North | stockport | NA | NA | nth ferriby | 0.4256683 | 0.2738741 | 0.3004576 | NA |
| 157 | 2015-08-18 | Conference North | tamworth | NA | NA | telford | 0.4737331 | 0.2650208 | 0.2612460 | NA |
| 12 | 2015-08-18 | Conference South | bath city | NA | NA | maidenhead | 0.4219170 | 0.2743867 | 0.3036963 | NA |
| 18 | 2015-08-18 | Conference South | bishop’s st. | NA | NA | chelmsford | 0.4148085 | 0.2752824 | 0.3099091 | NA |
| 46 | 2015-08-18 | Conference South | concord r | NA | NA | dartford | 0.5041901 | 0.2574019 | 0.2384081 | NA |
| 57 | 2015-08-18 | Conference South | eastbourne | NA | NA | st albans | 0.3571414 | 0.2785874 | 0.3642711 | NA |
| 59 | 2015-08-18 | Conference South | ebbsfleet | NA | NA | weston s m. | 0.5762780 | 0.2340556 | 0.1896664 | NA |
| 69 | 2015-08-18 | Conference South | gosport bor | NA | NA | whitehawk | 0.3849715 | 0.2779112 | 0.3371173 | NA |
| 79 | 2015-08-18 | Conference South | hayes & y | NA | NA | havant & w | 0.3985088 | 0.2769510 | 0.3245402 | NA |
| 81 | 2015-08-18 | Conference South | hemel | NA | NA | maidstone | 0.4222320 | 0.2743447 | 0.3034233 | NA |
| 108 | 2015-08-18 | Conference South | margate | NA | NA | wealdstone | 0.4416023 | 0.2713988 | 0.2869988 | NA |
| 123 | 2015-08-18 | Conference South | oxford c | NA | NA | basingstoke | 0.5098839 | 0.2558195 | 0.2342966 | NA |
| 19 | 2015-08-18 | English Championship | blackburn | NA | NA | cardiff | 0.4426475 | 0.2712200 | 0.2861325 | NA |
| 53 | 2015-08-18 | English Championship | derby | NA | NA | middlesbro | 0.3327446 | 0.2776257 | 0.3896297 | NA |
| 86 | 2015-08-18 | English Championship | huddersfield | NA | NA | brighton | 0.4139626 | 0.2753823 | 0.3106551 | NA |
| 91 | 2015-08-18 | English Championship | ipswich | NA | NA | burnley | 0.4156901 | 0.2751767 | 0.3091331 | NA |
| 115 | 2015-08-18 | English Championship | mk dons | NA | NA | bolton | 0.5409026 | 0.2463835 | 0.2127140 | NA |
| 119 | 2015-08-18 | English Championship | nottm forest | NA | NA | charlton | 0.3464608 | 0.2783536 | 0.3751856 | NA |
| 133 | 2015-08-18 | English Championship | rotherham | NA | NA | preston | 0.3190194 | 0.2763927 | 0.4045879 | NA |
| 21 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | blyth sptns | NA | NA | whitby | 0.4805851 | 0.2634348 | 0.2559802 | NA |
| 45 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | colwyn bay | NA | NA | hyde | 0.5158085 | 0.2541225 | 0.2300690 | NA |
| 50 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | darlington | NA | NA | frickley | 0.4651226 | 0.2669042 | 0.2679733 | NA |
| 70 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | grantham town | NA | NA | ilkeston | 0.3286737 | 0.2773138 | 0.3940125 | NA |
| 109 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | marine | NA | NA | ashton utd | 0.3641453 | 0.2785885 | 0.3572662 | NA |
| 110 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | matlock | NA | NA | salford city | 0.4610074 | 0.2677602 | 0.2712324 | NA |
| 113 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | mickleover s | NA | NA | halesowen | 0.4279438 | 0.2735500 | 0.2985063 | NA |
| 128 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | ramsbottom | NA | NA | buxton | 0.3388236 | 0.2780089 | 0.3831674 | NA |
| 137 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | skelmersdale | NA | NA | workington | 0.2747293 | 0.2686384 | 0.4566323 | NA |
| 145 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | stamford | NA | NA | rushall olympic | 0.2904051 | 0.2720788 | 0.4375160 | NA |
| 153 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik N Premier | sutton coldfield | NA | NA | barwell | 0.3731895 | 0.2784171 | 0.3483934 | NA |
| 14 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik S Premier | bedworth utd | NA | NA | st neots town | 0.2743133 | 0.2685361 | 0.4571507 | NA |
| 15 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik S Premier | bideford | NA | NA | weymouth | 0.4295432 | 0.2733162 | 0.2971406 | NA |
| 54 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik S Premier | dorchester | NA | NA | frome town | 0.4923039 | 0.2605478 | 0.2471483 | NA |
| 56 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik S Premier | dunstable | NA | NA | biggleswade t | 0.3476106 | 0.2783925 | 0.3739969 | NA |
| 97 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik S Premier | leamington | NA | NA | kettering | 0.4859455 | 0.2621411 | 0.2519133 | NA |
| 112 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik S Premier | merthyr | NA | NA | stratford town | 0.3566742 | 0.2785831 | 0.3647427 | NA |
| 125 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik S Premier | paulton | NA | NA | cirencester | 0.3540035 | 0.2785482 | 0.3674484 | NA |
| 126 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik S Premier | poole town | NA | NA | chippenham | 0.4082458 | 0.2760198 | 0.3157345 | NA |
| 138 | 2015-08-18 | Evo-Stik S Premier | slough | NA | NA | histon | 0.3218351 | 0.2766881 | 0.4014768 | NA |
| 2 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | aldershot | NA | NA | dover | 0.3298985 | 0.2774123 | 0.3926892 | NA |
| 4 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | altrincham | NA | NA | grimsby | 0.2627048 | 0.2654427 | 0.4718525 | NA |
| 9 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | barrow | NA | NA | guiseley | 0.4706186 | 0.2657163 | 0.2636651 | NA |
| 23 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | boreham w | NA | NA | forest green | 0.3848935 | 0.2779156 | 0.3371909 | NA |
| 31 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | bromley | NA | NA | braintree | 0.4690848 | 0.2660529 | 0.2648623 | NA |
| 41 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | chester | NA | NA | cheltenham | 0.5549957 | 0.2416634 | 0.2033409 | NA |
| 94 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | kidderminster | NA | NA | wrexham | 0.3082366 | 0.2750525 | 0.4167109 | NA |
| 99 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | lincoln | NA | NA | macclesfield | 0.3746402 | 0.2783718 | 0.3469880 | NA |
| 141 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | southport | NA | NA | gateshead | 0.4183992 | 0.2748424 | 0.3067584 | NA |
| 160 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | torquay | NA | NA | woking | 0.3606132 | 0.2786028 | 0.3607840 | NA |
| 162 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | tranmere | NA | NA | halifax | 0.4071703 | 0.2761323 | 0.3166975 | NA |
| 168 | 2015-08-18 | Football Conference | welling | NA | NA | eastleigh | 0.2873839 | 0.2714775 | 0.4411386 | NA |
| 26 | 2015-08-19 | Conference North | bradford pa | NA | NA | afc fylde | 0.3889376 | 0.2776711 | 0.3333913 | NA |
| 30 | 2015-08-19 | English Championship | bristol c | NA | NA | leeds | 0.4782589 | 0.2639818 | 0.2577593 | NA |
| 87 | 2015-08-19 | English Championship | hull | NA | NA | fulham | 0.4979306 | 0.2590854 | 0.2429840 | NA |
| 136 | 2015-08-19 | English Championship | sheff wed | NA | NA | reading | 0.5157359 | 0.2541436 | 0.2301205 | NA |
| 177 | 2015-08-19 | English Championship | wolves | NA | NA | qpr | 0.5294229 | 0.2500323 | 0.2205448 | NA |
| 36 | 2015-08-19 | Evo-Stik S Premier | cambridge c | NA | NA | chesham | 0.4681739 | 0.2662509 | 0.2655752 | NA |