Uždaviniai:

1. Prognozuojama panaudojant šiuos metodus: meanf(); naive(), snaive(); rwf(); croston(); stlf(); ses(); holt(), hw(); splinef(); thetaf(); forecast()

2. Prognozės rezultatų vizualizavimas su realiu laiko eilutės kitimu

3. Prognozavimo klaidų apskaičiavimas, sugretinimas tarp skirtingų duomenų eilučių

4. Paklaidų vizualizavimas

5. Analizės išvadų pateikimas

Funkcijos()

meanf metodas:

## [1] "Litecoin MAPE: 22.4049008914159"
## [1] "Ethereum MAPE: 16.5170222557304"
## [1] "Bitcoin MAPE: 21.1354028386429"

naive metodas:

## [1] "Litecoin MAPE: 57.3609816713265"
## [1] "Ethereum MAPE: 6.27929943870088"
## [1] "Bitcoin MAPE: 3.15912088830191"

snaive metodas:

## [1] "Litecoin MAPE: 22.4049008914159"
## [1] "Ethereum MAPE: 16.5170222557304"
## [1] "Bitcoin MAPE: 21.1354028386429"

rwf metodas:

## [1] "Litecoin MAPE: 66.4786495248179"
## [1] "Ethereum MAPE: 6.4999964082602"
## [1] "Bitcoin MAPE: 3.48624387205079"

croston metodas:

## [1] "Bitcoin accuracy:"
##                 ME     RMSE      MAE       MPE     MAPE
## Test set -137.8489 2260.313 2167.041 -2.252835 11.94005
## [1] "Ethereum accuracy:"
##                 ME     RMSE      MAE       MPE     MAPE
## Test set -8.492327 193.7381 186.6625 -2.593724 13.73334
## [1] "Litecoin accuracy:"
##                 ME   RMSE      MAE       MPE    MAPE
## Test set -2.069248 6.0613 5.433083 -4.341951 9.26567

stlf metodas:

## [1] "Litecoin MAPE: 53.5532837109665"
## [1] "Ethereum MAPE: 6.99045889357789"
## [1] "Bitcoin MAPE: 2.71962780293635"

ses metodas:

## [1] "Litecoin MAPE: 57.3592533227062"
## [1] "Ethereum MAPE: 6.27899353757895"
## [1] "Bitcoin MAPE: 3.15922523535553"

holt metodas:

## [1] "Bitcoin accuracy:"
##                 ME     RMSE      MAE       MPE     MAPE
## Test set -3481.759 3854.894 3481.759 -20.08322 20.08322
## [1] "Ethereum accuracy:"
##                 ME     RMSE      MAE       MPE     MAPE
## Test set -269.5285 315.9723 269.5285 -21.38599 21.38599
## [1] "Litecoin accuracy:"
##                 ME    RMSE      MAE       MPE     MAPE
## Test set -1603.521 1603.84 1603.521 -2678.948 2678.948

hw metodas:

## [1] "Litecoin MAPE: 67.59116593238"
## [1] "Ethereum MAPE: 11.1464533423845"
## [1] "Bitcoin MAPE: 4.34439266558787"

splinef metodas:

thetaf metodas:

forecast metodas:

## [1] "Bitcoin accuracy:"
##                 ME     RMSE      MAE      MPE     MAPE
## Test set -2153.319 3118.781 2355.104 -13.2552 14.20331
## [1] "Ethereum accuracy:"
##                 ME     RMSE      MAE       MPE     MAPE
## Test set -205.5183 282.3121 217.2569 -17.00293 17.71625
## [1] "Litecoin accuracy:"
##                ME     RMSE      MAE      MPE     MAPE
## Test set 4.546184 7.288715 5.419179 6.717886 8.416923