Introduction

## [1] "championship"   "league-1"       "league-2"       "premier-league"
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## [1] "ligue-1"
## [1] "bundesliga"
## [1] "coppa-italia"
## [1] "championship" "premiership"

This is a collection of forecasts for this weekend’s matches. It’s come a little late as one Premiership match has already begin. There’s been a few teething issues in getting the code to run with a new season. The plan over the summer was to more properly evaluate the forecasts from last season, using bookmaker prices as a reference point. Sadly, the time never materialised for that interesting venture, and further Dropbox has managed to lose the important bookmaker price files I saved back then.

Nonetheless, without properly evaluating, the plan is to expand a little this season, and hopefully include top European leagues alongside the Premier League and other English divisions.

English Premier League

Forecasts for the Premier League suggest Swansea against Newcastle is the strongest home banker of the weekend, and suggests the match at West Ham against Leicester ought to be intriguingly close.

French Ligue 1

This week we add French matches, and perhaps unsurprisingly Monaco (tonight) and PSG are strong favourites to win their respective home matches.

It’s worth cautioning this analysis as we only have French data back to about 1999, and hence the estimation sample is much smaller than what we have for England.

German Bundesliga

In Germany, Bayern, Bayer Leverkusen, Mainz and Wolfsburg are the strongest home bankers.

Our German sample is longer for the Bundesliga, back to the 1960s, but nonetheless is still much smaller than we have for England.

Conclusions

This is a tentative first foray into forecasting outside of England, and I hope to refine this, with bookmaker prices, and an evaluation of previous forecasts, in the coming weeks.

For transparency, all forecasts are also listed as a table:

kable(forecast.matches[order(forecast.matches$date,forecast.matches$division),
                       c("date","division","team1","team2","Ph","Pd","Pa")])
date division team1 team2 Ph Pd Pa
7 2015-08-14 English Premier aston villa man utd 0.3416423 0.2781537 0.3802040
117 2015-08-14 French Division 1 monaco lille 0.5433425 0.2620028 0.1946547
22 2015-08-14 German Bundesliga 1 b munich hamburg 0.5991464 0.2356370 0.1652165
1 2015-08-15 Conference North afc fylde gainsborough 0.4828998 0.2628818 0.2542184
3 2015-08-15 Conference North alfreton brackley 0.4440552 0.2709760 0.2849688
24 2015-08-15 Conference North boston utd curzon ashton 0.4315869 0.2730104 0.2954027
47 2015-08-15 Conference North corby chorley 0.5017243 0.2580721 0.2402036
61 2015-08-15 Conference North fc utd tamworth 0.3627816 0.2785975 0.3586208
77 2015-08-15 Conference North harrogate t hednesford 0.4303602 0.2731949 0.2964449
121 2015-08-15 Conference North nth ferriby solihull moors 0.4124404 0.2755585 0.3120011
122 2015-08-15 Conference North nuneaton bradford pa 0.4240408 0.2740998 0.3018594
144 2015-08-15 Conference North stalybridge gloucester 0.3863398 0.2778323 0.3358279
158 2015-08-15 Conference North telford stockport 0.4046284 0.2763887 0.3189829
178 2015-08-15 Conference North worcester lowestoft t 0.3454117 0.2783151 0.3762732
11 2015-08-15 Conference South basingstoke bishop’s st. 0.4531646 0.2693109 0.2775245
38 2015-08-15 Conference South chelmsford hayes & y 0.4146391 0.2753025 0.3100583
51 2015-08-15 Conference South dartford sutton utd 0.4238986 0.2741193 0.3019821
78 2015-08-15 Conference South havant & w margate 0.3942139 0.2772985 0.3284876
104 2015-08-15 Conference South maidenhead gosport bor 0.3710871 0.2784740 0.3504389
105 2015-08-15 Conference South maidstone oxford c 0.3576471 0.2785915 0.3637614
143 2015-08-15 Conference South st albans ebbsfleet 0.3749851 0.2783604 0.3466545
164 2015-08-15 Conference South truro city concord r 0.3593043 0.2786004 0.3620953
167 2015-08-15 Conference South wealdstone eastbourne 0.4396862 0.2717215 0.2885922
170 2015-08-15 Conference South weston s m. hemel 0.2869415 0.2713871 0.4416714
173 2015-08-15 Conference South whitehawk bath city 0.5078454 0.2563916 0.2357630
29 2015-08-15 English Championship bristol c brentford 0.4544576 0.2690626 0.2764798
33 2015-08-15 English Championship burnley birmingham 0.4249718 0.2739713 0.3010569
52 2015-08-15 English Championship derby charlton 0.4011069 0.2767218 0.3221713
65 2015-08-15 English Championship fulham brighton 0.4590187 0.2681635 0.2728178
85 2015-08-15 English Championship huddersfield blackburn 0.3587091 0.2785980 0.3626929
92 2015-08-15 English Championship ipswich sheff wed 0.4446177 0.2708775 0.2845049
114 2015-08-15 English Championship middlesbro bolton 0.5578920 0.2406614 0.2014466
116 2015-08-15 English Championship mk dons preston 0.4312292 0.2730645 0.2957063
120 2015-08-15 English Championship nottm forest rotherham 0.4106031 0.2757649 0.3136319
127 2015-08-15 English Championship qpr cardiff 0.4042484 0.2764259 0.3193258
140 2015-08-15 English Premier southampton everton 0.4208487 0.2745277 0.3046237
152 2015-08-15 English Premier sunderland norwich 0.4280782 0.2735305 0.2983913
156 2015-08-15 English Premier swansea newcastle 0.5556234 0.2414472 0.2029295
161 2015-08-15 English Premier tottenham stoke 0.4509794 0.2697238 0.2792968
165 2015-08-15 English Premier watford west brom 0.4445718 0.2708855 0.2845427
169 2015-08-15 English Premier west ham leicester 0.3494454 0.2784477 0.3721069
6 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier ashton utd mickleover s 0.4991383 0.2587652 0.2420965
10 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier barwell blyth sptns 0.3690893 0.2785186 0.3523921
34 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier buxton darlington 0.4244586 0.2740424 0.3014991
63 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier frickley matlock 0.3415797 0.2781507 0.3802696
74 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier halesowen colwyn bay 0.3315698 0.2775402 0.3908899
89 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier hyde grantham town 0.3850439 0.2779071 0.3370489
90 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier ilkeston skelmersdale 0.5060953 0.2568778 0.2370269
118 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier nantwich town stamford 0.4890251 0.2613773 0.2495975
134 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier rushall olympic ramsbottom 0.5380861 0.2472952 0.2146187
135 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier salford city marine 0.3780756 0.2782454 0.3436790
172 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier whitby stourbridge 0.5296630 0.2499578 0.2203792
179 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik N Premier workington sutton coldfield 0.5399303 0.2466994 0.2133703
16 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier biggleswade t redditch 0.3849240 0.2779139 0.3371621
40 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier chesham paulton 0.3622316 0.2785999 0.3591685
42 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier chippenham bedworth utd 0.5365452 0.2477895 0.2156652
44 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier cirencester hitchin 0.4451734 0.2707796 0.2840470
64 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier frome town cambridge c 0.3721259 0.2784472 0.3494269
83 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier histon leamington 0.4075151 0.2760964 0.3163885
88 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier hungerford t dorchester 0.4466774 0.2705119 0.2828107
93 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier kettering merthyr 0.3321490 0.2775828 0.3902681
95 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier king’s lynn bideford 0.3914686 0.2774999 0.3310315
147 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier st neots town poole town 0.4647516 0.2669825 0.2682659
150 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier stratford town slough 0.5701178 0.2363154 0.1935668
171 2015-08-15 Evo-Stik S Premier weymouth dunstable 0.4376204 0.2720618 0.2903178
27 2015-08-15 Football Conference braintree tranmere 0.4426581 0.2712182 0.2861237
39 2015-08-15 Football Conference cheltenham southport 0.3566939 0.2785833 0.3647228
55 2015-08-15 Football Conference dover chester 0.4306257 0.2731552 0.2962191
58 2015-08-15 Football Conference eastleigh lincoln 0.5654022 0.2380138 0.1965840
62 2015-08-15 Football Conference forest green barrow 0.4656095 0.2668010 0.2675896
67 2015-08-15 Football Conference gateshead boreham w 0.3422217 0.2781809 0.3795974
71 2015-08-15 Football Conference grimsby bromley 0.5509458 0.2430464 0.2060079
73 2015-08-15 Football Conference guiseley kidderminster 0.5006434 0.2583631 0.2409936
75 2015-08-15 Football Conference halifax torquay 0.3695941 0.2785082 0.3518978
103 2015-08-15 Football Conference macclesfield welling 0.4770407 0.2642647 0.2586945
174 2015-08-15 Football Conference woking altrincham 0.5467510 0.2444563 0.2087926
180 2015-08-15 Football Conference wrexham aldershot 0.5179777 0.2534884 0.2285339
5 2015-08-15 French Division 1 angers nantes 0.4269691 0.2945501 0.2784808
35 2015-08-15 French Division 1 caen toulouse 0.4325916 0.2935139 0.2738945
72 2015-08-15 French Division 1 guingamp lyon 0.3320802 0.3014627 0.3664571
132 2015-08-15 French Division 1 rennes montpellier 0.4351820 0.2930159 0.2718021
146 2015-08-15 French Division 1 st etienne bordeaux 0.4534094 0.2891537 0.2574369
163 2015-08-15 French Division 1 troyes nice 0.4290555 0.2941728 0.2767717
8 2015-08-15 German Bundesliga 1 augsburg hertha berlin 0.4740342 0.2788490 0.2471168
13 2015-08-15 German Bundesliga 1 b dortmund mgladbach 0.3002386 0.2916658 0.4080956
20 2015-08-15 German Bundesliga 1 b leverkusen hoffenheim 0.5716559 0.2469032 0.1814408
106 2015-08-15 German Bundesliga 1 mainz ingolstadt 0.5679046 0.2483706 0.1837248
155 2015-08-15 German Bundesliga 1 sv darmstadt hannover 0.3086654 0.2928155 0.3985191
166 2015-08-15 German Bundesliga 1 w bremen schalke 0.3783127 0.2945782 0.3271091
17 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier billericay enfield town 0.3842455 0.2779514 0.3378031
28 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier brentwood t vcd athletic 0.3398903 0.2780662 0.3820435
32 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier burgess hill t grays 0.3509852 0.2784874 0.3705273
37 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier canvey isl. bognor regis 0.3763052 0.2783139 0.3453809
60 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier farnborough wingate & f 0.3401955 0.2780820 0.3817225
76 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier hampton & r e thurrock 0.4186695 0.2748083 0.3065222
82 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier hendon dulwich h 0.5110312 0.2554949 0.2334739
96 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier kingstonian met. police 0.3378343 0.2779532 0.3842125
98 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier lewes harrow boro 0.3142159 0.2758370 0.4099471
111 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier merstham leiston 0.3815830 0.2780888 0.3403283
142 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier staines leatherhead 0.3021464 0.2741453 0.4237083
159 2015-08-15 Ryman Premier tonbridge needham m 0.4276282 0.2735955 0.2987763
129 2015-08-16 English Championship reading leeds 0.3927535 0.2774076 0.3298388
176 2015-08-16 English Championship wolves hull 0.4687234 0.2661316 0.2651450
48 2015-08-16 English Premier c palace arsenal 0.3665707 0.2785614 0.3548679
107 2015-08-16 English Premier man city chelsea 0.4392172 0.2717995 0.2889834
101 2015-08-16 French Division 1 lorient bastia 0.3500238 0.3018539 0.3481222
124 2015-08-16 French Division 1 paris st g. gfc ajaccio 0.6022083 0.2381522 0.1596395
131 2015-08-16 French Division 1 reims marseille 0.4013017 0.2984663 0.3002320
151 2015-08-16 German Bundesliga 1 stuttgart cologne 0.4073345 0.2917643 0.3009012
175 2015-08-16 German Bundesliga 1 wolfsburg e frankfurt 0.5754913 0.2453852 0.1791235
49 2015-08-17 Conference North curzon ashton harrogate t 0.4453126 0.2707550 0.2839324
154 2015-08-17 Conference South sutton utd truro city 0.3850620 0.2779061 0.3370319
100 2015-08-17 English Premier liverpool bournemouth 0.4957999 0.2596449 0.2445552
149 2015-08-17 Evo-Stik N Premier stourbridge nantwich town 0.3046169 0.2745266 0.4208564
84 2015-08-17 Evo-Stik S Premier hitchin king’s lynn 0.4938723 0.2601451 0.2459826
130 2015-08-17 Evo-Stik S Premier redditch hungerford t 0.3565995 0.2785824 0.3648181
25 2015-08-18 Conference North brackley boston utd 0.3622517 0.2785999 0.3591485
43 2015-08-18 Conference North chorley fc utd 0.3833299 0.2780004 0.3386697
66 2015-08-18 Conference North gainsborough stalybridge 0.4136970 0.2754134 0.3108896
68 2015-08-18 Conference North gloucester alfreton 0.4255862 0.2738856 0.3005282
80 2015-08-18 Conference North hednesford corby 0.3320577 0.2775762 0.3903661
102 2015-08-18 Conference North lowestoft t nuneaton 0.4548132 0.2689938 0.2761931
139 2015-08-18 Conference North solihull moors worcester 0.4644615 0.2670436 0.2684949
148 2015-08-18 Conference North stockport nth ferriby 0.4256683 0.2738741 0.3004576
157 2015-08-18 Conference North tamworth telford 0.4737331 0.2650208 0.2612460
12 2015-08-18 Conference South bath city maidenhead 0.4219170 0.2743867 0.3036963
18 2015-08-18 Conference South bishop’s st. chelmsford 0.4148085 0.2752824 0.3099091
46 2015-08-18 Conference South concord r dartford 0.5041901 0.2574019 0.2384081
57 2015-08-18 Conference South eastbourne st albans 0.3571414 0.2785874 0.3642711
59 2015-08-18 Conference South ebbsfleet weston s m. 0.5762780 0.2340556 0.1896664
69 2015-08-18 Conference South gosport bor whitehawk 0.3849715 0.2779112 0.3371173
79 2015-08-18 Conference South hayes & y havant & w 0.3985088 0.2769510 0.3245402
81 2015-08-18 Conference South hemel maidstone 0.4222320 0.2743447 0.3034233
108 2015-08-18 Conference South margate wealdstone 0.4416023 0.2713988 0.2869988
123 2015-08-18 Conference South oxford c basingstoke 0.5098839 0.2558195 0.2342966
19 2015-08-18 English Championship blackburn cardiff 0.4426475 0.2712200 0.2861325
53 2015-08-18 English Championship derby middlesbro 0.3327446 0.2776257 0.3896297
86 2015-08-18 English Championship huddersfield brighton 0.4139626 0.2753823 0.3106551
91 2015-08-18 English Championship ipswich burnley 0.4156901 0.2751767 0.3091331
115 2015-08-18 English Championship mk dons bolton 0.5409026 0.2463835 0.2127140
119 2015-08-18 English Championship nottm forest charlton 0.3464608 0.2783536 0.3751856
133 2015-08-18 English Championship rotherham preston 0.3190194 0.2763927 0.4045879
21 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier blyth sptns whitby 0.4805851 0.2634348 0.2559802
45 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier colwyn bay hyde 0.5158085 0.2541225 0.2300690
50 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier darlington frickley 0.4651226 0.2669042 0.2679733
70 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier grantham town ilkeston 0.3286737 0.2773138 0.3940125
109 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier marine ashton utd 0.3641453 0.2785885 0.3572662
110 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier matlock salford city 0.4610074 0.2677602 0.2712324
113 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier mickleover s halesowen 0.4279438 0.2735500 0.2985063
128 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier ramsbottom buxton 0.3388236 0.2780089 0.3831674
137 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier skelmersdale workington 0.2747293 0.2686384 0.4566323
145 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier stamford rushall olympic 0.2904051 0.2720788 0.4375160
153 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik N Premier sutton coldfield barwell 0.3731895 0.2784171 0.3483934
14 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik S Premier bedworth utd st neots town 0.2743133 0.2685361 0.4571507
15 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik S Premier bideford weymouth 0.4295432 0.2733162 0.2971406
54 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik S Premier dorchester frome town 0.4923039 0.2605478 0.2471483
56 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik S Premier dunstable biggleswade t 0.3476106 0.2783925 0.3739969
97 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik S Premier leamington kettering 0.4859455 0.2621411 0.2519133
112 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik S Premier merthyr stratford town 0.3566742 0.2785831 0.3647427
125 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik S Premier paulton cirencester 0.3540035 0.2785482 0.3674484
126 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik S Premier poole town chippenham 0.4082458 0.2760198 0.3157345
138 2015-08-18 Evo-Stik S Premier slough histon 0.3218351 0.2766881 0.4014768
2 2015-08-18 Football Conference aldershot dover 0.3298985 0.2774123 0.3926892
4 2015-08-18 Football Conference altrincham grimsby 0.2627048 0.2654427 0.4718525
9 2015-08-18 Football Conference barrow guiseley 0.4706186 0.2657163 0.2636651
23 2015-08-18 Football Conference boreham w forest green 0.3848935 0.2779156 0.3371909
31 2015-08-18 Football Conference bromley braintree 0.4690848 0.2660529 0.2648623
41 2015-08-18 Football Conference chester cheltenham 0.5549957 0.2416634 0.2033409
94 2015-08-18 Football Conference kidderminster wrexham 0.3082366 0.2750525 0.4167109
99 2015-08-18 Football Conference lincoln macclesfield 0.3746402 0.2783718 0.3469880
141 2015-08-18 Football Conference southport gateshead 0.4183992 0.2748424 0.3067584
160 2015-08-18 Football Conference torquay woking 0.3606132 0.2786028 0.3607840
162 2015-08-18 Football Conference tranmere halifax 0.4071703 0.2761323 0.3166975
168 2015-08-18 Football Conference welling eastleigh 0.2873839 0.2714775 0.4411386
26 2015-08-19 Conference North bradford pa afc fylde 0.3889376 0.2776711 0.3333913
30 2015-08-19 English Championship bristol c leeds 0.4782589 0.2639818 0.2577593
87 2015-08-19 English Championship hull fulham 0.4979306 0.2590854 0.2429840
136 2015-08-19 English Championship sheff wed reading 0.5157359 0.2541436 0.2301205
177 2015-08-19 English Championship wolves qpr 0.5294229 0.2500323 0.2205448
36 2015-08-19 Evo-Stik S Premier cambridge c chesham 0.4681739 0.2662509 0.2655752