Overperformance Table

District Democrat Republican Presidential Predicted Actual WAR
NY-09 Yvette Clarke Menachem Raitport (C) D+51.9 D+42.4 D+63 D +20.6
AK-AL Mary Peltola Sarah Palin R+10.5 R+8.1 D+9.9 D +18.0
HI-01 Ed Case Conrad Kress D+29.8 D+29.9 D+47.4 D +17.5
OH-09 Marcy Kaptur JR Majewski R+3 R+1.5 D+13.3 D +14.8
ND-AL Cara Mund (I) Kelly Armstrong R+34.4 R+39.3 R+24.8 D +14.5
NJ-08 Rob Menendez Marcos Arroyo D+45.2 D+38.8 D+50.1 D +11.3
NY-26 Brian Higgins Steven Sams D+23.8 D+16.7 D+28 D +11.2
TX-28 Henry Cuellar Cassy Garcia D+7.1 D+2.2 D+13.3 D +11.1
TX-29 Sylvia Garcia Robert Schafranek D+37.2 D+32.6 D+42.8 D +10.3
FL-01 Rebekah Jones Matt Gaetz R+32.9 R+45.9 R+35.7 D +10.2
GA-14 Marcus Flowers Marjorie Taylor Greene R+37.9 R+41.9 R+31.7 D +10.2
CO-03 Adam Frisch Lauren Boebert R+8.4 R+10.2 R+0.2 D +10.1
TX-20 Joaquin Castro Kyle Sinclair D+33.6 D+27.7 D+36.9 D +9.2
CT-02 Joe Courtney Mike France D+11.7 D+9.3 D+18.3 D +9.1
PA-02 Brendan Boyle Aaron Bashir D+43 D+42.4 D+51.3 D +8.9
LA-02 Troy Carter Dan Lux D+53.6 D+45.6 D+54.2 D +8.7
NY-07 Nydia Velazquez Juan Pagan D+63.1 D+52.8 D+61.4 D +8.5
WV-02 Barry Lee Wendell Alex Mooney R+37.7 R+39.6 R+31.1 D +8.4
FL-13 Eric Lynn Anna Paulina Luna R+6.8 R+16.2 R+8.2 D +8.0
ME-02 Jared Golden Bruce Poliquin R+6.3 R+1.4 D+6.1 D +7.5
NY-10 Dan Goldman Benine Hamdan D+72 D+61.9 D+69.4 D +7.4
TX-37 Lloyd Doggett Jenny Garcia Sharon D+53.7 D+49.7 D+57.1 D +7.3
NY-06 Grace Meng Thomas Zmich D+30.5 D+20.8 D+27.9 D +7.1
UT-04 Darlene McDonald Burgess Owens R+27.2 R+37.8 R+30.7 D +7.0
MD-01 Heather Mizeur Andy Harris R+14.8 R+18 R+11.6 D +6.4
KS-03 Sharice Davids Amanda Adkins D+4.6 D+6.2 D+12.5 D +6.2
NY-15 Ritchie Torres Stylo Sapaskis D+70.3 D+59.5 D+65.6 D +6.1
MT-01 Monica Tranel Ryan Zinke R+7.1 R+9.3 R+3.3 D +6.0
TX-09 Al Green Jimmy Leon D+54 D+47.4 D+53.4 D +6.0
NY-21 Matt Castelli Elise Stefanik R+12.6 R+24.2 R+18.3 D +5.9
MI-08 Dan Kildee Paul Junge D+2.1 D+4.8 D+10.7 D +5.9
CA-41 Will Rollins Ken Calvert R+1.1 R+10.5 R+4.7 D +5.8
MI-03 Hillary Scholten John Gibbs D+8.6 D+7.7 D+13.3 D +5.6
LA-01 Katie Darling Steve Sclaise R+40.3 R+54 R+48.6 D +5.4
GA-13 David Scott Caesar Gonzales D+61 D+58.1 D+63.5 D +5.4
NJ-01 Donald Norcross Claire Gustafson D+24.7 D+22.5 D+27.8 D +5.4
NJ-11 Mikie Sherrill Paul DeGroot D+17 D+13.8 D+19 D +5.2
NC-13 Wiley Nickel Bo Hines D+1.7 R+2 D+3.2 D +5.2
IN-06 Cinde Wirth Greg Pence R+32.6 R+40.2 R+35.1 D +5.1
WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Joe Kent R+4.4 R+4.3 D+0.8 D +5.1
PA-08 Matt Cartwright Jim Bognet R+3 R+2.7 D+2.4 D +5.1
TX-13 Kathleen Brown Ronny Jackson R+46.3 R+55.8 R+50.7 D +5.1
OH-13 Emilia Sykes Madison Gesiotto D+2.8 D+0.4 D+5.4 D +5.0
TX-35 Greg Casar Dan McQueen D+46.1 D+40.2 D+45.2 D +5.0
SC-01 Annie Andrews Nancy Mace R+8.9 R+18.7 R+14.1 D +4.6
TN-06 Randal Cooper John Rose R+29.8 R+37 R+32.7 D +4.4
IL-13 Nikki Budzinski Regan Deering D+11.4 D+8.9 D+13.2 D +4.3
FL-24 Frederica Wilson Jesus Navarro D+49.4 D+39.3 D+43.6 D +4.3
KY-03 Morgan McGarvey Stuart Ray D+22.8 D+19.8 D+24 D +4.2
TX-32 Colin Allred Antonio Swad D+33.6 D+26.5 D+30.7 D +4.2
CA-28 Judy Chu Wes Hallman D+34.5 D+28.3 D+32.5 D +4.2
TX-21 Claudia Zapata Chip Roy R+20 R+29.8 R+25.7 D +4.2
AZ-03 Ruben Gallego Jeff Zink D+51.4 D+49.9 D+54 D +4.1
NY-19 Josh Riley Marc Molinaro D+4.7 R+5.6 R+1.6 D +4.0
TX-27 Maclovio Perez Michael Cloud R+22.8 R+32.9 R+28.9 D +4.0
AZ-05 Javier Ramos Andy Biggs R+16.7 R+24.5 R+20.5 D +4.0
CA-25 Raul Ruiz Brian Hawkins D+15.7 D+11 D+14.8 D +3.8
CA-12 Barbara Lee Stephen Slauson D+82.4 D+77.2 D+80.9 D +3.8
PA-16 Dan Pastore Mike Kelly R+21 R+22.5 R+18.7 D +3.8
TX-24 Jan Mcdowell Beth Van Duyne R+12.4 R+23.2 R+19.5 D +3.7
OH-04 Tamie Wilson Jim Jordan R+36.3 R+42 R+38.4 D +3.6
TX-02 Robin Fulford Dan Crenshaw R+23.2 R+35.4 R+31.8 D +3.5
MD-04 Glenn Ivey Jeff Warner D+82.4 D+77.1 D+80.7 D +3.5
TX-30 Jasmine Crockett James Rodgers D+57.4 D+51.5 D+55 D +3.5
CA-07 Doris Matsui Max Semenenko D+37.9 D+33.1 D+36.5 D +3.4
MA-08 Stephen Lynch Robert Burke D+36 D+36.2 D+39.6 D +3.4
MO-03 Bethany Mann Blaine Luetkemeyer R+26.6 R+33.6 R+30.2 D +3.4
CA-48 Stephen Houlahan Darrell Issa R+12.6 R+24.1 R+20.7 D +3.4
WV-01 Lacy Watson Carol Miller R+41.6 R+43 R+39.7 D +3.3
TN-05 Heidi Campbell Andy Ogles R+11.6 R+17 R+13.8 D +3.2
VA-01 Herb Jones Rob Wittman R+6.9 R+16.3 R+13.2 D +3.2
IN-08 Ray McCormick Larry Bucshon R+33.4 R+38.3 R+35.2 D +3.1
AZ-06 Kirsten Engel Juan Ciscomani D+0.1 R+4.6 R+1.5 D +3.1
NJ-03 Andy Kim Bob Healey Jr. D+14.2 D+8.9 D+11.9 D +3.1
MI-10 Carl Marlinga John James R+1 R+3.5 R+0.5 D +3.0
FL-14 Kathy Castor James Judge D+19.4 D+10.8 D+13.8 D +3.0
NV-03 Susie Lee April Becker D+6.8 D+1.1 D+4 D +2.9
CA-01 Max Steiner Doug LaMalfa R+19.5 R+27 R+24.1 D +2.9
ID-02 Wendy Norman Mike Simpson R+23.7 R+30 R+27.2 D +2.9
MI-07 Elissa Slotkin Tom Barrett D+0.9 D+2.7 D+5.5 D +2.8
IL-09 Jan Schakowsky Max Rice D+42 D+40.6 D+43.4 D +2.8
KS-02 Patrick Schmidt Jake LaTurner R+16.7 R+18 R+15.3 D +2.7
OK-04 Mary Brannon Tom Cole R+31.7 R+36.2 R+33.5 D +2.7
IA-01 Christina Bohannan Mariannette Miller-Meeks R+3 R+9.5 R+6.8 D +2.7
TX-18 Sheila Jackson Lee Carmen Maria Montiel D+49 D+43.3 D+45.9 D +2.7
FL-03 Danielle Hawk Kat Cammack R+14.2 R+29.2 R+26.5 D +2.6
AZ-01 Jevin Hodge David Schweikert D+1.4 R+3.5 R+0.9 D +2.6
FL-07 Karen Green Cory Mills R+5.6 R+19.7 R+17.1 D +2.6
CA-20 Marisa Wood Kevin McCarthy R+25.5 R+37.1 R+34.5 D +2.6
IA-03 Cindy Axne Zach Nunn R+0.4 R+3.3 R+0.7 D +2.6
NY-18 Pat Ryan Colin Schmitt D+8.4 R+1.2 D+1.3 D +2.5
IL-05 Mike Quigley Tommy Hanson D+40.5 D+38.9 D+41.4 D +2.5
TX-07 Lizzie Fletcher Johnny Teague D+30.2 D+25.1 D+27.6 D +2.5
NV-01 Dina Titus Mark Robertson D+8.6 D+3.3 D+5.8 D +2.4
AZ-04 Greg Stanton Kelly Cooper D+10.4 D+9.8 D+12.2 D +2.4
TX-36 Jon Haire Brian Babin R+32 R+41.3 R+38.9 D +2.4
PA-11 Bob Hollister Lloyd Smucker R+21.7 R+25.4 R+23.1 D +2.3
RI-01 David Cicillline Allen Waters D+29.6 D+26 D+28.3 D +2.3
PA-10 Shamaine Daniels Scott Perry R+4.2 R+9.9 R+7.7 D +2.3
IA-02 Liz Mathis Ashley Hinson R+4.5 R+10.5 R+8.2 D +2.3
FL-22 Lois Frankel Daniel Franzese D+17.7 D+8 D+10.2 D +2.3
NM-03 Teresa Leger Fernandez Alexis Martinez Johnson D+11 D+14.1 D+16.3 D +2.3
PA-07 Susan Wild Lisa Scheller D+0.6 R+0.3 D+2 D +2.2
TX-05 Tartisha Hill Lance Gooden R+22.7 R+32.9 R+30.7 D +2.2
CA-08 John Garamendi Rudy Recile D+55.2 D+49.2 D+51.5 D +2.2
IN-05 Jeannine Lee Lake Victoria Spartz R+16.4 R+24.3 R+22.1 D +2.2
PA-04 Madeleine Dean Christian Nascimento D+19.1 D+20.3 D+22.6 D +2.2
MI-06 Debbie Dingell Whittney Williams D+27 D+29.6 D+31.8 D +2.2
MO-08 Randi McCallian Jason Smith R+52.1 R+57.4 R+55.3 D +2.2
FL-12 Kimberly Walker Gus Bilirakis R+29.1 R+42.9 R+40.8 D +2.2
GA-04 Hank Johnson Jonathan Chavez D+58.3 D+54.8 D+57 D +2.1
KY-04 Matt Lehman Thomas Massie R+33.2 R+37.5 R+35.4 D +2.1
MN-01 Jeff Ettinger Brad Finstad R+9.5 R+14.1 R+12 D +2.1
TX-33 Marc Veasey Patrick Gillespie D+50.6 D+45.4 D+47.5 D +2.1
NJ-05 Josh Gottheimer Frank Pallotta D+12.5 D+8.4 D+10.5 D +2.1
VA-07 Abigail Spanberger Yesli Vega D+6.8 D+2.6 D+4.7 D +2.0
OH-07 Matthew Diemer Max Miller R+9.4 R+12.7 R+10.7 D +2.0
CA-52 Juan Vargas Tyler Geffeney D+37.7 D+31.3 D+33.3 D +2.0
WI-03 Brad Pfaff Derrick Van Orden R+4.8 R+5.7 R+3.7 D +2.0
CA-09 Josh Harder Tom Patti D+12.8 D+7.7 D+9.6 D +2.0
FL-02 Al Lawson Neal Dunn R+11.3 R+21.6 R+19.6 D +2.0
MO-02 Trish Gunby Ann Wagner R+8 R+14 R+12.1 D +2.0
NC-11 Jasmine Beach-Ferrera Chuck Edwards R+10.4 R+11.3 R+9.4 D +1.9
MD-07 Kweisi Mfume Scott Collier D+64.4 D+62.6 D+64.5 D +1.9
TN-01 Cameron Parsons Diana Harshbarger R+55.3 R+61.6 R+59.8 D +1.8
PA-09 Amanda Waldman Dan Meuser R+37.1 R+40.5 R+38.7 D +1.8
PA-17 Chris Deluzio Jeremy Shaffer D+5.8 D+5.1 D+6.8 D +1.7
NC-07 Charles Graham David Rouzer R+12.9 R+17.1 R+15.4 D +1.7
NY-22 Francis Conole Brandon Williams D+7.5 R+2.6 R+1 D +1.7
MI-02 Jerry Hilliard John Moolenaar R+28.8 R+31.6 R+30 D +1.6
TX-15 Michelle Vallejo Monica De La Cruz R+2.9 R+10.2 R+8.6 D +1.6
VT-AL Becca Balint Liam Madden D+36.5 D+36.9 D+38.5 D +1.6
CA-02 Jared Huffman Douglas Brower D+50.6 D+47.3 D+48.8 D +1.5
NC-09 Ben Clark Richard Hudson R+8.1 R+14.5 R+13 D +1.5
TN-07 Odessa Kelly Mark Green R+15.5 R+23.7 R+22.2 D +1.4
NC-14 Jeff Jackson Pat Harrigan D+16.5 D+14 D+15.4 D +1.4
CA-36 Ted Lieu Joe Collins III D+45 D+38.1 D+39.5 D +1.4
FL-25 Debbie Wasserman Schultz Carla Spalding D+19.9 D+8.8 D+10.2 D +1.4
WY-AL Lynnette Grey Bull Harriet Hageman R+44.9 R+48.7 R+47.3 D +1.3
AR-03 Lauren Mallett-Hays Steve Womack R+24.2 R+33.2 R+31.9 D +1.3
NJ-06 Frank Pallone Sue Kiley D+19.9 D+15.4 D+16.7 D +1.3
WI-02 Mark Pocan Erik Olsen D+42.4 D+43.7 D+45 D +1.3
VA-09 Taysha DeVaughan Morgan Griffith R+42.6 R+48.1 R+46.8 D +1.3
OH-01 Greg Landsman Steve Chabot D+8.6 D+4.2 D+5.5 D +1.3
FL-08 Joanne Terry Bill Posey R+17.9 R+31.1 R+29.8 D +1.3
TN-09 Steve Cohen Charlotte Bergmann D+48.9 D+44.3 D+45.5 D +1.2
FL-23 Jared Moskowitz Joe Budd D+13.2 D+3.6 D+4.8 D +1.2
CA-04 Mike Thompson Matt Brock D+37.5 D+34.4 D+35.6 D +1.2
MI-13 Shri Thanedar Martell Bivings D+50.2 D+48.4 D+49.6 D +1.2
OK-05 Joshua Harris-Till Stephanie Bice R+18.9 R+23.6 R+22.4 D +1.2
FL-27 Annette Taddeo Maria Elvira Salazar R+0.3 R+15.7 R+14.6 D +1.2
MA-02 Jim McGovern Jeffrey Sossa-Paquette D+31.5 D+31.4 D+32.5 D +1.2
GA-09 Mike Ford Andrew Clyde R+38.4 R+45.9 R+44.7 D +1.1
PA-15 Mike Molesevich Glenn Thompson R+37.6 R+41 R+39.9 D +1.1
CA-44 Nanette Barragan Paul Jones D+49.3 D+43.3 D+44.4 D +1.1
SC-02 Judd Larkins Joe Wilson R+10.8 R+21.3 R+20.2 D +1.1
CA-19 Jimmy Panetta Jeff Gorman D+40.4 D+36.2 D+37.3 D +1.1
FL-17 Andrea Kale Greg Steube R+16.1 R+29.6 R+28.5 D +1.1
NC-05 Kyle Parrish Virginia Foxx R+21.5 R+27.4 R+26.3 D +1.1
NC-02 Deborah Ross Christine Villaverde D+29.2 D+28.3 D+29.4 D +1.1
IN-09 Matthew Fyfe Erin Houchin R+27.9 R+31.9 R+30.8 D +1.0
PA-06 Chrissy Houlahan Guy Ciarrocchi D+14.9 D+15.5 D+16.5 D +1.0
GA-01 Wade Herring Buddy Carter R+13.6 R+19.3 R+18.3 D +1.0
NJ-10 Donald Payne Jr. David Pinckney D+63.1 D+57.9 D+58.9 D +1.0
TN-02 Mark Harmon Tim Burchett R+29.9 R+36.8 R+35.8 D +0.9
FL-20 Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick Drew-Montez Clark D+52.8 D+43.7 D+44.6 D +0.9
UT-02 Nick Mitchell Chris Stewart R+17.8 R+28.3 R+27.4 D +0.9
NE-01 Patty Pansing Brooks Mike Flood R+11.3 R+16.7 R+15.8 D +0.9
CA-03 Kermit Jones Kevin Kiley R+1.9 R+8.1 R+7.3 D +0.8
GA-03 Val Almond Drew Ferguson R+30.5 R+38.3 R+37.5 D +0.8
CO-07 Brittany Pettersen Erik Aadland D+14.6 D+14.5 D+15.3 D +0.8
AR-01 Monte Hodges Rick Crawford R+42.2 R+48.4 R+47.6 D +0.8
CA-32 Brad Sherman Lucie Volotzky D+41.5 D+37.6 D+38.3 D +0.8
IL-17 Eric Sorensen Esther Joy King D+8 D+3.2 D+4 D +0.7
TX-10 Linda Nuno Michae McCaul R+19.1 R+30.4 R+29.7 D +0.7
CA-51 Sara Jacobs Stan Caplan D+27.9 D+23.1 D+23.7 D +0.7
NV-04 Steven Horsford Sam Peters D+8.4 D+4.2 D+4.8 D +0.6
MD-08 Jamie Raskin Gregory Coll D+63.5 D+62.5 D+63.1 D +0.6
TX-34 Vicente Gonzalez Mayra Flores D+15.6 D+8.2 D+8.8 D +0.6
NC-04 Valerie Foushee Courtney Geels D+35.5 D+33.3 D+33.8 D +0.6
VA-06 Jennifer Lewis Ben Cline R+22.6 R+29.6 R+29 D +0.6
IN-03 Gary Snyder Jim Banks R+30.6 R+37.4 R+37 D +0.5
FL-19 Cindy Banyai Byron Donalds R+21.2 R+36.5 R+36 D +0.4
TX-12 Trey Hunt Kay Granger R+18.5 R+29 R+28.5 D +0.4
MI-11 Haley Stevens Mark Ambrose D+20.1 D+22.2 D+22.6 D +0.4
NY-12 Jerry Nadler Michael Zumbluskas D+72.1 D+63.6 D+63.9 D +0.4
MN-06 Jeanne Hendricks Tom Emmer R+18.1 R+24.6 R+24.2 D +0.4
FL-16 Jan Schneider Vern Buchanan R+8.9 R+24.7 R+24.3 D +0.4
TX-22 Jamie Jordan Troy Nehls R+15.8 R+27.7 R+27.3 D +0.4
IL-11 Bill Foster Cataline Lauf D+15.6 D+12.6 D+12.9 D +0.3
CA-45 Jay Chen Michelle Steel D+6.2 R+5.1 R+4.8 D +0.3
TX-38 Duncan Klussmann Wesley Hunt R+18.5 R+28.1 R+27.9 D +0.2
AL-07 Terri Sewell Beatrice Nichols D+32.4 D+29.1 D+29.3 D +0.2
NC-10 Pam Genant Patrick McHenry R+40.1 R+45.5 R+45.4 D +0.2
GA-02 Sanford Bishop Chris West D+10.4 D+9.8 D+9.9 D +0.1
NH-01 Chris Pappas Karoline Leavitt D+6.1 D+8 D+8.1 D +0.1
TN-03 Meg Gorman Chuck Fleischmann R+32.6 R+38.8 R+38.7 D +0.1
MA-03 Lori Trahan Dean Tran D+27.6 D+27.1 D+27.1 D +0.0
IN-01 Frank Mrvan Jennfier-Ruth Green D+8.5 D+5.7 D+5.7 D +0.0
OR-04 Val Hoyle Alek Skarlatos D+13.1 D+8 D+8 R +0.0
IL-10 Brad Schneider Joseph Severino D+26.4 D+26.1 D+26 R +0.1
GA-10 Tabitha Johnson-Green Mike Collins R+23.7 R+29 R+29.1 R +0.1
TX-23 John Lira Tony Gonzales R+7.4 R+18 R+18.1 R +0.1
CO-01 Diana DeGette Jennier Qualteri D+62.7 D+64.3 D+64.2 R +0.1
KS-04 Bob Hernandez Ron Estes R+22.3 R+26.6 R+26.7 R +0.1
TX-17 Mary Jo Woods Pete Sessions R+23 R+32.9 R+33 R +0.1
OK-02 Naomi Andrews Josh Brecheen R+54.4 R+51.1 R+51.2 R +0.1
GA-05 Nikema Williams Christian Zimm D+67.4 D+65.1 D+65 R +0.1
OH-02 Samantha Meadows Brad Wenstrup R+46.1 R+48.9 R+49 R +0.1
MI-09 Brian Jaye Lisa McClain R+30 R+31.5 R+31.7 R +0.1
WI-04 Gwen Moore Tim Rogers D+53.8 D+54 D+53.8 R +0.2
OR-03 Earl Blumenauer Joanna Harbour D+48.4 D+45.5 D+45.3 R +0.2
IL-06 Sean Casten Keith Pekau D+11.1 D+9 D+8.7 R +0.2
FL-04 LaShonda Holloway Aaron Bean R+6.8 R+20.7 R+20.9 R +0.2
FL-09 Darren Soto Scotty Moore D+17.6 D+7.6 D+7.3 R +0.3
IL-15 Paul Lange Mary Miller R+39.6 R+42 R+42.3 R +0.3
KY-02 Hank Linderman Brett Guthrie R+37.4 R+43.4 R+43.7 R +0.3
MN-02 Angie Craig Tyler Kistner D+7.3 D+5.8 D+5.4 R +0.4
WA-06 Derek Kilmer Elizabeth Kreiselmaier D+17.7 D+20.5 D+20.1 R +0.4
NC-08 Scott Huffman Dan Bishop R+34.6 R+39.4 R+39.8 R +0.4
IN-04 Roger Day Jim Baird R+29.8 R+36 R+36.4 R +0.4
AZ-02 Tom O’Halleran Eli Crane R+8.1 R+7.3 R+7.7 R +0.4
NY-20 Paul Tonko Liz Joy D+19.5 D+10.6 D+10.1 R +0.4
IL-08 Raja Krishnamoorthi Chris Dargis D+15.6 D+14.2 D+13.8 R +0.5
NY-01 Bridget Fleming Nick LaLota D+0.2 R+10.6 R+11 R +0.5
MN-08 Jennifer Schultz Pete Stauber R+11.5 R+14 R+14.5 R +0.5
IL-03 Delia Ramirez Justin Burau D+42.2 D+37.5 D+37 R +0.5
VA-03 Bobby Scott Terry Namkung D+38.9 D+35.3 D+34.7 R +0.5
MD-06 David Trone Neil Parrott D+10 D+10.1 D+9.6 R +0.5
VA-05 Joshua Throneburg Bob Good R+8.4 R+14.7 R+15.4 R +0.7
NY-24 Steve Holden Claudia Tenney R+17.7 R+30.7 R+31.4 R +0.7
WA-08 Kim Schrier Matt Larkin D+6.9 D+7.6 D+6.9 R +0.8
KY-05 Conor Halbleib Hal Rogers R+60.2 R+63.6 R+64.3 R +0.8
CA-05 MIke Barkley Tom McClintock R+12.6 R+21.8 R+22.6 R +0.8
TX-04 Iro Omere Pat Fallon R+26.4 R+35.8 R+36.6 R +0.8
ME-01 Chellie Pingree Ed Thelander D+23.4 D+26.8 D+25.9 R +0.8
MN-03 Dean Phillips Tom Weiler D+21.4 D+20.1 D+19.2 R +0.9
CA-49 Mike Levin Brian Maryott D+11.6 D+6.2 D+5.3 R +0.9
HI-02 Jill Tokuda Joe Akana D+30.2 D+28.5 D+27.6 R +0.9
CO-02 Joe Neguse Marshall Dawson D+40.8 D+43.8 D+42.8 R +1.0
NJ-12 Bonnie Watson Coleman Darius Mayfield D+34.7 D+28.5 D+27.5 R +1.0
GA-07 Lucy McBath Mark Gonsalves D+26.1 D+23.1 D+22.1 R +1.0
MO-05 Emanuel Cleaver Jacob Turk D+26.9 D+26.3 D+25.2 R +1.0
MA-01 Richard Neal Dean Martilli D+22.1 D+24.2 D+23.1 R +1.1
MO-06 Henry Martin Sam Graves R+37.8 R+42.7 R+43.8 R +1.1
CA-17 Ro Khanna Ritesh Tandon D+48.3 D+42.9 D+41.9 R +1.1
TX-08 Laura Jones Morgan Luttrell R+27.5 R+36.9 R+38.1 R +1.1
MO-07 Kristen Radaker-Sheafer Eric Burlison R+42.2 R+44 R+45.2 R +1.1
OR-01 Suzanne Bonamici Christopher Mann D+40.4 D+37.2 D+36 R +1.1
CA-42 Robert Garcia John Briscoe D+46.9 D+37.9 D+36.7 R +1.2
MA-06 Seth Moulton Bob May D+28.4 D+29.5 D+28.3 R +1.2
FL-15 Alan Cohn Laurel Lee R+3.3 R+15.9 R+17.1 R +1.2
NJ-07 Tom Malinowski Tom Kean Jr. D+3.6 R+1.6 R+2.8 R +1.2
OK-03 Jeremiah Ross Frank Lucas R+43.8 R+47.8 R+49.1 R +1.2
NM-02 Gabe Vasquez Yvette Herrell D+6 D+2 D+0.7 R +1.3
OH-15 Gary Josephson Mike Carey R+7 R+12.6 R+13.9 R +1.3
KY-01 Jimmy Ausbrooks James Comer R+43.4 R+48.5 R+49.8 R +1.3
OH-08 Vanessa Enoch Warren Davidson R+22.4 R+28 R+29.3 R +1.3
CT-01 John Larson Larry Lazor D+28.5 D+25.4 D+24.1 R +1.3
CO-05 David Torres Doug Lamborn R+10.5 R+14.9 R+16.3 R +1.3
IL-12 Chip Markel Mike Bost R+43.6 R+48.7 R+50 R +1.4
NY-05 Gregory Meeks Paul King D+62.9 D+51.8 D+50.4 R +1.4
MA-09 Bill Keating Jesse Brown D+18.4 D+19.8 D+18.4 R +1.4
SC-05 Evangeline Hundley Ralph Norman R+18.5 R+28.5 R+30 R +1.5
CT-03 Rosa DeLauro Lesley DeNardis D+19.9 D+18.1 D+16.6 R +1.5
NY-11 Max Rose Nicole Malliotakis R+7.7 R+22 R+23.5 R +1.5
MS-02 Bennie Thompson Brain Flowers D+26.4 D+21.7 D+20.2 R +1.5
WI-07 Richard Ausman Tom Tiffany R+20.3 R+22.2 R+23.8 R +1.5
AR-04 John White Bruce Westerman R+36.3 R+44.5 R+46.1 R +1.6
VA-02 Elaine Luria Jen Kiggans D+1.8 R+1.8 R+3.4 R +1.6
FL-10 Maxwell Frost Calvin Wimbish D+32 D+21.5 D+19.9 R +1.6
MI-05 Bart Goldberg Tim Walberg R+24.6 R+26.5 R+28.2 R +1.6
MD-02 Dutch Ruppersberger Nicolee Ambrose D+21.2 D+20.3 D+18.6 R +1.6
OK-01 Adam Martin Kevin Hern R+21.9 R+26 R+27.6 R +1.7
MA-07 Ayanna Pressley Donnie Palmer D+73.5 D+71.4 D+69.7 R +1.7
PA-05 Mary Gay Scanlon David Galluch D+32.6 D+31.9 D+30.2 R +1.7
WI-05 Mike Van Someren Scott Fitzgerald R+23.2 R+27.1 R+28.9 R +1.7
FL-21 Corinna Balderramos Robinson Brian Mast R+9.5 R+25.3 R+27 R +1.7
TN-04 Wayne Steele Scott DesJarlais R+38.5 R+44.7 R+46.5 R +1.8
NY-14 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Tina Forte D+56.9 D+46 D+44.2 R +1.8
CA-46 Lou Correa Christopher Gonzales D+31 D+25.4 D+23.6 R +1.8
GA-11 Antonio Daza Barry Loudermilk R+15.6 R+23.4 R+25.2 R +1.8
NH-02 Annie Kuster Robert Burns D+9 D+13.6 D+11.7 R +1.8
NV-02 Elizabeth Krause Mark Amodei R+11.4 R+20.6 R+22.5 R +1.9
ID-01 Kaylee Peterson Russ Fulcher R+39.3 R+44.1 R+46.1 R +2.0
NC-01 Don Davis Sandy Smith D+7.3 D+6.7 D+4.7 R +2.0
WA-09 Adam Smith Doug Basler D+45.9 D+45.5 D+43.5 R +2.0
OH-05 Craig Swartz Bob Latta R+27.3 R+31.7 R+33.8 R +2.1
MN-04 Betty McCollum May Lor Xiong D+38.1 D+37.5 D+35.4 R +2.1
AZ-07 Raul Grijalva Luis Pozzolo D+33.2 D+31.2 D+29.1 R +2.1
NY-08 Hakeem Jeffries Yuri Dashevsky D+53.5 D+45.6 D+43.4 R +2.1
AL-04 Rick Neighbors Robert Aderholt R+62.4 R+69.9 R+72.1 R +2.2
TX-14 Mikal Williams Randy Weber R+29 R+38.1 R+40.3 R +2.2
CA-43 Maxine Waters Omar Navarro D+63.9 D+56.9 D+54.7 R +2.2
CA-06 Ami Bera Tamika Hamilton D+19 D+14.1 D+11.9 R +2.2
NE-02 Tony Vargas Don Bacon D+6.4 R+0.4 R+2.7 R +2.3
AL-02 Phyllis Harvey-Hall Barry Moore R+29.8 R+38.4 R+40.6 R +2.3
NC-03 Barbara Gaskins Greg Murphy R+25.7 R+31.5 R+33.8 R +2.3
CO-06 Jason Crow Steven Monahan D+24.4 D+26 D+23.6 R +2.3
VA-04 Donald McEachin Leon Benjamin D+36.3 D+32.4 D+30.1 R +2.3
FL-11 Shante Munns Daniel Webster R+10.9 R+25.8 R+28.1 R +2.3
KS-01 Jimmy Beard Tracey Mann R+30.3 R+33 R+35.3 R +2.4
CA-47 Katie Porter Scott Baugh D+11.3 D+5.8 D+3.4 R +2.4
NC-12 Alma Adams Tyler Lee D+30.4 D+27.9 D+25.5 R +2.4
IL-14 Lauren Underwood Scott Gryder D+11.6 D+10.8 D+8.3 R +2.4
GA-12 Liz Johnson Rick Allen R+10.4 R+16.7 R+19.2 R +2.5
GA-08 Darrius Butler Austin Scott R+27.9 R+34.7 R+37.2 R +2.5
IN-07 Andre Carson Angela Grabovsky D+43.3 D+39.7 D+37.3 R +2.5
VA-08 Don Beyer Karina Lipsman D+56.8 D+52.1 D+49.6 R +2.5
CO-08 Yadira Caraveo Barbara Kirkmeyer D+4.7 D+3.2 D+0.7 R +2.5
NY-17 Sean Patrick Maloney Mike Lawler D+10.2 D+2 R+0.6 R +2.7
GA-06 Bob Christian Rich McCormick R+15.1 R+21.8 R+24.4 R +2.7
TX-03 Sandeep Srivastava Keith Self R+14.7 R+21.5 R+24.3 R +2.7
MI-01 Bob Lorinser Jack Bergman R+20.2 R+20.5 R+23.2 R +2.7
MI-04 Joseph Alfonso Bill Huizenga R+4 R+9.6 R+12.3 R +2.7
NJ-09 Bill Pascrell Billy Prempeh D+19.2 D+14.2 D+11.5 R +2.7
MS-04 Johnny DuPree Mike Ezell R+38.6 R+46.9 R+49.8 R +2.8
MN-07 Jill Abahsain Michelle Fischbach R+33.9 R+38.8 R+41.6 R +2.8
AR-02 Quintessa Hathaway French Hill R+13.5 R+23.1 R+26 R +2.9
WI-01 Ann Roe Bryan Steil R+2.1 R+6.1 R+9 R +2.9
NC-06 Kathy Manning Christian Castelli D+12.5 D+11.8 D+8.9 R +2.9
OH-11 Shontel Brown Eric Brewer D+58.1 D+58.4 D+55.5 R +2.9
CO-04 Ike McCorkle Ken Buck R+19 R+22 R+25 R +3.0
NY-23 Max Della Pia Nick Langworthy R+17.6 R+26.8 R+29.8 R +3.0
RI-02 Seth Magaziner Allan Fung D+13.8 D+6.8 D+3.8 R +3.0
CA-23 Derek Marshall Jay Odernolte R+10.1 R+19 R+22.1 R +3.1
OH-12 Amy Rippel-Elton Troy Balderson R+31.4 R+35.5 R+38.5 R +3.1
MS-01 Dianne Black Trent Kelly R+32.2 R+42.9 R+45.9 R +3.1
OR-02 Joe Yetter Cliff Bentz R+25.1 R+32.1 R+35.2 R +3.1
UT-01 Rick Jones Blake Moore R+20.5 R+30.8 R+33.9 R +3.2
OH-06 Louis Lyras Bill Johnson R+29.1 R+32.3 R+35.4 R +3.2
IL-04 Chuy Garcia James Falakos D+47.2 D+45.1 D+41.8 R +3.3
NY-03 Robert Zimmerman George Santos D+8.2 R+4.2 R+7.5 R +3.3
MD-03 John Sarbanes Yuripzy Morgan D+26 D+23.8 D+20.5 R +3.3
CA-13 Adam Gray John Duarte D+11.1 D+2.9 R+0.4 R +3.3
IA-04 Ryan Melton Randy Feenstra R+26.4 R+34.4 R+37.8 R +3.3
TX-16 Veronica Escobar Irene Armendariz-Jackson D+35.9 D+30.4 D+26.9 R +3.4
VA-11 Gerry Connolly James Myles D+41.9 D+37.2 D+33.8 R +3.5
CA-14 Eric Swalwell Alison Hayden D+46.4 D+42.1 D+38.7 R +3.5
OH-03 Joyce Beatty Lee Stahley D+44.3 D+44.4 D+40.9 R +3.5
MA-05 Katherine Clark Caroline Colarusso D+52 D+51.6 D+48.1 R +3.5
IL-16 Elizabeth Haderlein Darin LaHood R+22 R+29 R+32.7 R +3.6
CA-11 Nancy Pelosi John Dennis D+76.1 D+71.6 D+67.9 R +3.7
AL-03 Lin Veasey Mike Rogers R+34.5 R+44.1 R+47.8 R +3.8
MO-04 Jack Truman Mark Alford R+40.4 R+42.3 R+46.1 R +3.8
NY-25 Joseh Morelle La’Ron Singletary D+20.2 D+11.6 D+7.7 R +3.9
NJ-04 Matthew Jenkins Chris Smith R+22.8 R+32.2 R+36.2 R +3.9
SC-07 Daryl Scott Russell Fry R+18.8 R+25.8 R+29.8 R +4.0
CA-50 Scott Peters Corey Gustafson D+34 D+29.7 D+25.7 R +4.1
TX-01 Jrmar Jefferson Nathaniel Moran R+46.4 R+52 R+56.2 R +4.1
OH-14 Matt Kilboy David Joyce R+15.1 R+19.2 R+23.5 R +4.2
AL-05 Kathy Warner-Stanton Dale Strong R+27.6 R+34.6 R+38.8 R +4.3
SC-06 Jim Clyburn Duke Buckner D+32.5 D+28.6 D+24.2 R +4.4
CA-40 Asif Mahmood Young Kim D+1.8 R+9.3 R+13.7 R +4.4
NJ-02 Tim Alexander Jeff Van Drew R+5.2 R+14.7 R+19.1 R +4.4
WA-05 Natasha Hill Cathy McMorris Rodgers R+10.3 R+14.8 R+19.3 R +4.5
NM-01 Melanie Stansbury Michelle Garcia Holmes D+14.7 D+16.2 D+11.5 R +4.7
TN-08 Lynnette Williams David Kustoff R+38 R+45.7 R+50.6 R +4.9
OR-05 Jamie McLeod-Skinner Lori Chavez-DeRemer D+9.1 D+2.8 R+2.1 R +4.9
DE-AL Lisa Blunt Rochester Lee Murphy D+19.2 D+17.7 D+12.7 R +5.0
WA-02 Rick Larsen Dan Matthews D+23.4 D+25.4 D+20.4 R +5.0
MI-12 Rashida Tlaib Steve Elliott D+49 D+51 D+45.9 R +5.1
OR-06 Andrea Salinas Mike Erickson D+13.5 D+7.8 D+2.5 R +5.3
FL-28 Robert Asencio Carlos A. Gimenez R+6.4 R+22 R+27.4 R +5.4
CA-24 Salud Carbajal Brad Allen D+29.7 D+26.6 D+21.1 R +5.4
CA-22 Rudy Salas David Valadao D+13.1 D+2.4 R+3 R +5.4
CA-39 Mark Takano Aja Smith D+26.7 D+20.8 D+15.3 R +5.5
WA-10 Marilyn Strickland Keith Swank D+18.3 D+19.6 D+14.1 R +5.5
IN-02 Paul Steury Rudy Yakym R+23.1 R+27.7 R+33.2 R +5.5
WA-01 Suzan DelBene Vincent Cavaleri D+31.4 D+32.7 D+27.1 R +5.6
IL-02 Robin Kelly Thomas Lynch D+40.5 D+39.9 D+34.3 R +5.6
CA-26 Julia Brownley Matt Jacobs D+20.3 D+14.8 D+9.1 R +5.7
CA-31 Grace Napolitano Daniel Martinez D+31.6 D+24.8 D+19.1 R +5.7
NY-04 Laura Gillen Anthony D’Esposito D+14.7 D+2.1 R+3.6 R +5.7
NY-02 Jackie Gordon Andrew Garbarino R+1.6 R+15.7 R+21.5 R +5.8
MS-03 Shuwaski Young Michael Guest R+24.7 R+35.6 R+41.5 R +5.9
MD-05 Steny Hoyer Chris Palombi D+37.1 D+38 D+32 R +6.0
UT-03 Glenn Wright John Curtis R+20.4 R+31.1 R+37.1 R +6.0
CT-05 Jahana Hayes George Logan D+10.8 D+6.9 D+0.8 R +6.1
WA-07 Pramila Jayapal Cliff Moon D+77 D+77.7 D+71.5 R +6.2
PA-12 Summer Lee Mike Doyle D+20.1 D+18.8 D+12.4 R +6.4
VA-10 Jennifer Wexton Hung Cao D+18.3 D+13 D+6.5 R +6.5
NY-16 Jamaal Bowman Miriam Flisser D+44 D+35.2 D+28.6 R +6.6
CA-33 Pete Aguilar John Porter D+25.9 D+22.1 D+15.4 R +6.7
CA-21 Jim Costa Michael Maher D+20.8 D+15.1 D+8.4 R +6.7
IL-01 Jonathan Jackson Eric Carlson D+43 D+40.9 D+34.1 R +6.8
NE-03 David Else Adrian Smith R+52.9 R+58.9 R+66.4 R +7.5
MO-01 Cori Bush Andrew Jones D+59.3 D+57.5 D+49.9 R +7.5
CA-27 Christy Smith Mike Garcia D+12.6 D+1.1 R+6.5 R +7.5
CA-35 Norma Torres Mike Cargile D+28.6 D+22.4 D+14.7 R +7.7
CA-18 Zoe Lofgren Peter Hernandez D+44.9 D+39.4 D+31.7 R +7.7
FL-26 Christine Olivo Mario Diaz-Balart R+18.5 R+33.5 R+41.7 R +8.2
CA-38 Linda Sanchez Eric Ching D+30.8 D+24.4 D+16.2 R +8.2
CT-04 Jim Himes Jayme Stevenson D+31.6 D+27.4 D+18.8 R +8.6
LA-05 Various Dems Julia Letlow R+30.2 R+41.6 R+51.2 R +9.6
PA-01 Ashley Ehasz Brian Fitzpatrick D+4.6 D+0.1 R+9.7 R +9.8
LA-03 Various Dems Clay Higgins R+38.4 R+48.9 R+59.2 R +10.3
MN-05 Illhan Omar Cicely Davis D+64.3 D+60.8 D+50.4 R +10.4
KY-06 Geoff Young Andy Barr R+11.3 R+18 R+30.2 R +12.2
WA-04 Doug White Dan Newhouse R+17.5 R+22 R+36.1 R +14.1
OH-10 David Esrati Mike Turner R+3.6 R+9 R+23.3 R +14.3

Races not contested with 1 major-party candidate on each side

District Democrat Republican
AL-01 None Jerry Carl
AL-06 None Gary Palmer
AZ-08 None Debbie Lesko
AZ-09 None Paul Gosar
CA-10 Mark DeSaulnier None
CA-15 Kevin Mullin None
CA-16 Anna Eshoo None
CA-29 Tony Cardenas None
CA-30 Adam Schiff None
CA-34 Jimmy Gomez None
CA-37 Sydney Kamlager None
IL-07 Danny Davis None
MA-04 Jake Auchincloss None
MT-02 None Matt Rosendale
TX-06 None Jake Ellzey
TX-11 None August Pfluger
TX-19 None Jodey Arrington
TX-25 None Roger Williams
TX-26 None Michael Burgess
TX-31 None John Carter
SD-AL None Dusty Johnson
SC-04 None William Timmons
SC-03 None Jeff Duncan
LA-06 None Garret Graves
LA-04 None Mike Johnson
PA-13 None John Joyce
PA-03 Dweight Evans None
PA-14 None Guy Reschenthaler
WI-08 None Mike Gallagher
WI-06 None Glenn Grothman
FL-05 None John Rutherford
FL-18 None Scott Franklin
FL-06 None Michael Waltz
NY-13 Adriano Espaillat None

Generated by Lakshya Jain and georeferenced by Armin Thomas, December 30 2022