Conditional Probability of NFL Teams to Make the Playoffs - 2022/2023

For this project, I created a bullet chart which maps the conditional probability of AFC NFL teams to make the playoffs after week 12. A 0% means that the team is definitely making or missing the the payoffs. The solid colored bar is a good thing if you want your team to make the playoffs.

This is an adaptation of the 2020 plot that Thomas Mock used in his blog post on bullet plots and credit goes to him for the framework, instruction and coding.

Code can be found below.

library(espnscrapeR)
library(tidyverse)
library(ggtext)
library(systemfonts)

teams <- espnscrapeR::get_nfl_standings(2022)
team_meta <- espnscrapeR::get_nfl_teams() %>% 
  select(abb_name = team_abb, team_color)
team_df <- teams %>% 
  select(abb_name = team_abb, logos = team_logo, playoff_seed = seed) %>% 
  left_join(team_meta) %>% 
  group_by(playoff_seed) %>% 
  mutate(
    count = row_number(),
    conf = if_else(count == 1, "AFC", "NFC")) %>% 
  ungroup() %>% 
  filter(conf == "AFC") %>% 
  mutate(
    win_cur = c(
      99, 99, 81, 60, 73, 59, 52, 59, 16, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0
    ),
    win_pct = c(
      99,99.01,94, 91, 95, 83, 69, 86, 39, 3, 13, 1, 1,1,1, 0
    ),
    win_chg = round(win_pct - win_cur, 1)
  ) %>% 
  mutate(
    abb_name = factor(abb_name),
    abb_name = fct_reorder(abb_name, win_pct, .desc = TRUE),
    abb_name = fct_rev(abb_name)
  ) %>% 
  arrange(desc(win_pct))
link_to_img <- function(x, width = 30) {
  glue::glue("<img src='{x}' width='{width}'/>")
}
team_logo_plot <- team_df %>%
  mutate(logos = link_to_img(logos)) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = win_cur, y = fct_reorder(logos, win_pct), fill = team_color)) +
  geom_text(
    aes(x = 100, label = paste0(win_chg, "%")), 
    nudge_x = 6, hjust = 1, fontface= "bold", family = "Chivo", size = 6
  ) +
  geom_col(aes(x = 100), fill="white", color = "grey", width = 0.7) +
  geom_col(aes(x = win_pct), alpha = 0.5, width = 0.7) +
  geom_col(width = 0.7) +
  scale_fill_identity() +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(25, 50, 75), labels = scales::percent_format(scale = 1)) +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(
    text = element_text(family = "Chivo"),
    panel.grid.major.y = element_blank(),
    panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
    panel.grid.major.x = element_line(color = "grey", linewidth = 0.2),
    panel.ontop = TRUE,
    axis.text.y = element_markdown(margin = margin(r = -25, unit = "pt")),
    axis.text.x = element_text(size = 16, color = "grey"),
    plot.title = element_text(size = 36, face = "bold"),
    plot.subtitle = element_text(size = 24),
    plot.margin = unit(c(0.5, 1.5, 0.5, 1.5), "cm")
  ) +
  labs(
    x = "", y = "", 
    title = "Playoff Probability Leverage",
    subtitle = "AFC Week 12"
  )
team_logo_plot