Factors of Presidential Approval Rating
Victoria Baumgarten
5/13/2019
Introduction
Throughout this project, I decided to look at factors that have affected the presidential approval rating of past presidents. To narrow my search, I researched the previous five presidents to finish their terms: Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George Bush, and Ronald Reagan. Because the public perception is an interesting indicator in the legacy of the president, approval rating is significant.
To analyze presidential approval ratings, I looked at data concerning presidential approval ratings, inflation and unemployment rates throughout the terms, and important political events that occurred during each presidency. I used all of this data to analyze presidential approval ratings in a few ways. First, I looked at the approval rating for each president over time in comparison to their disapproval rating and the percentage of people that were unsure about their sentiment for each president. From there, I analyzed the approval rate over time in comparison to unemployment and inflation in order to see if there are economic factors that play strongly into approval ratings. Further, I looked at the approval rating for each president in comparison to the time in their presidential cycle. Lastly, I looked at major political events that occurred during each presidency, and saw if this affected the approval rating for each president.
Hypothesis
Presidential approval ratings will be higher for presidents when the unemployment and inflation rates are lower. Furthermore, approval ratings will be higher when the president is at the beginning of their time in office, and when they are campaigning for presidency again. Lastly, the approval rating of presidents will be strongly affected by political events happening in the country, particularly war and terrorism.
Methodology
To start the project, I imported the following packages:
library(tidyverse)
library(sf)
library(ggplot2)
library(maptools)
library(ggthemes)
library(tibble)
library(lubridate)
library(reshape2)And used the following generic theme throughout my plots:
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())Factor 1: Approval Ratings Across Time
I began my analysis by using the following code in order to find sort data to graph presidential approval ratings over time:
read.csv("presidentapprovalratings.csv") ->approvalratings
clinton <- approvalratings %>% filter(President %in% "Clinton")
obama <- approvalratings %>% filter(President %in% "Obama")
bushjr <- approvalratings %>% filter(President %in% "George W. Bush")
bushsr <- approvalratings %>% filter(President %in% "George Bush")
reagan <- approvalratings %>% filter(President %in% "Reagan")
reagan$Start.Date <- mdy(reagan$Start.Date)
clinton$Start.Date <-mdy(clinton$Start.Date)
obama$Start.Date <-mdy(obama$Start.Date)
bushjr$Start.Date <-mdy(bushjr$Start.Date)
bushsr$Start.Date <-mdy(bushsr$Start.Date)And from there, I used the following code to plot presidential approval ratings over time:
ggplot(reagan, aes(Start.Date, Percentage)) +
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Disapproving, color="Disapprove"))+
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Approving, color="Approve")) +
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Unsure.NoData, color="Unsure/No Data"))+
ggtitle("Reagan's Approval Rating")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
axis.title.x=element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(bushsr, aes(Start.Date, Percentage)) +
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Disapproving, color="Disapprove"))+
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Approving, color="Approve")) +
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Unsure.NoData, color="Unsure/No Data"))+
ggtitle("George Bush's Approval Rating")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
axis.title.x=element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(clinton, aes(Start.Date, Percentage)) +
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Disapproving, color="Disapprove"))+
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Approving, color="Approve")) +
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Unsure.NoData, color="Unsure/No Data"))+
ggtitle("Clinton's Approval Rating")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
axis.title.x=element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(bushjr, aes(Start.Date, Percentage)) +
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Disapproving, color="Disapprove"))+
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Approving, color="Approve")) +
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Unsure.NoData, color="Unsure/No Data"))+
ggtitle("George W. Bush's Approval Rating")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
axis.title.x=element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(obama, aes(Start.Date, Percentage)) +
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Disapproving, color="Disapprove"))+
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Approving, color="Approve")) +
geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Unsure.NoData, color="Unsure/No Data"))+
ggtitle("Obama's Approval Rating")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
axis.title.x=element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
Due to the large amount of polling data available for Barack Obama, his graph was much more populated in comparison to the others.
From all of this data, I noted a couple major things regarding each president. Throughout all five president’s terms, the percentage of people who were “unsure” how they felt about the president quickly decreased. Besides this, there was not much correlation among the approval ratings of presidents.
Reagan’s approval rating changed often over time, falling around 1983 and increasing again in years following.
George Bush’s approval ratings decreased in the final years of his presidency.
Clinton’s approval rating seemed to trend upwards throughout his presidency.
George W. Bush saw a sharp increase in his approval rating in 2001, and it fell fairly steadily following that year.
Obama’s approval rating fell when he entered office, and increased near the middle of his presidency, decreased again, and increased towards the end of his term.
One important thing to note throughout these graphs is the major outliers. The largest outlier is George W. Bush’s approval rating following September of 2001. While I would assume that this spike is due to the large amount of patriotism nationwide following 9/11, this will be further analyzed throughout the remainder of the project. Another outlier is during George Bush’s presidency. His approval rating became extremely high around March of 1991.
Factor 2: Unemployment and Inflation
In order to analyze why these patterns were occuring, I first looked to see if unemployment and inflation rates affected the president approval ratings. I created a stacked bar chart regarding all three variables with the following code:
ggplot(stackedbar2, aes(x = variable, y = value, fill = row)) +
geom_bar(stat = "identity") +
xlab("Year") +
ylab("Total Rates") +
theme_bw()+
annotate("text", x = 30, y = 25, label = "Dark blue= approval rating")+
annotate("text", x=30, y=23, label="Medium blue= inflation")+
annotate("text", x=30, y=21, label="Light blue= unemployment")+
theme(panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
legend.text = element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.key = element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank(),
panel.grid.major=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1))
Because this graph can be hard to comprehend, I decided to graph the trend of annual employment, annual inflation, and average annual approval ratings in one graph using the following code:
read.csv("unemploymentinflation.csv") ->employinflate
employinflate$Start.Date <- mdy(employinflate$Start.Date)
ggplot(employinflate, aes(Start.Date, Inflation), ylim(c(0,10)))+geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Inflation, color="Inflation")) +geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Unemployment, color="Unemployment"))+ scale_y_continuous("Inflation/Unemployment Rate", sec.axis = sec_axis(~./.1, name = "Approval Rate"), limits=c(0,10)) + geom_line(aes(Start.Date, A.A.Approve, color="Approval Rating"))+xlab("Date")+ theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.title=element_blank(),
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
However, it was also hard to depict any trend based on this graph as there are so many overlapping lines and trends. So I created the following three seprate graphics to compare the three variables:
ggplot(employinflate, aes(Start.Date, Inflation))+geom_line(color="red")+
xlab("Date")+ylab("Inflation Rate")+ggtitle("Inflation Rate over Time")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.title=element_blank(),
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(employinflate, aes(Start.Date, Unemployment))+geom_line(color="blue")+
xlab("Date")+ylab("Unemployment Rate")+ggtitle("Unemployment Rate over Time")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.title=element_blank(),
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(employinflate, aes(Start.Date, Approving))+geom_line(color="green")+
xlab("Date")+ylab("Approval Rate")+ggtitle("Presidential Approval Rate over Time")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.title=element_blank(),
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
There were a few things that I noted. When unemployment was at its peak (the early 1980s and around 2008), it is evident that there were strong decreases in presidential approval rating. Furthermore, the opposite is true in times of low unemployment, such as 2000-2001, when presidential approval rates were high. A similar standard is true with inflation, because when these rates are at their lowest the approval rating spikes. This shows that economic indicators do indeed correlate with presidential approval.
Factor 3: Time Period in Term
Following this, I wanted to look at how each president was seen throughout their term. I used the following code to graph approval ratings throughout different periods in the presidential cycle:
ggplot(reagan, aes(Start.Date, Approving, color=ElectionTime)) +geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Approving))+xlab("Date")+
ylab("Approval Rating")+ggtitle("Reagan: Time Period in Presidency vs. Approval Rating")+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1987-12-10"), y = 45, label = "Final Year", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1986-06-10"), y = 58, label = "Mid", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1986-06-10"), y = 56, label = "Second", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1986-06-10"), y = 54, label = "Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1985-07-01"), y = 72, label = "First Year", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1985-07-11"), y = 70, label = "(second term)", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1984-05-10"), y = 47, label = "Campaign for", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1984-05-01"), y = 45, label = "Re-Election", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1983-05-10"), y = 50, label = "Mid First", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1983-05-10"), y = 48, label = "Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1981-08-10"), y = 47, label = "First Year", size=3)+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
axis.title.x=element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(bushsr, aes(Start.Date, Approving, color=ElectionTime)) +geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Approving))+xlab("Date")+
ylab("Approval Rating")+ggtitle("George Bush: Time Period in Presidency vs. Approval Rating")+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1993-01-20"), y = 47, label = "End of", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1993-01-10"), y = 45, label = "Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1992-07-10"), y = 46, label = "Campaign for", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1992-07-01"), y = 44, label = "Re-Election", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1990-12-10"), y = 48, label = "Mid First Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1989-07-10"), y = 72, label = "First Year", size=3)+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
axis.title.x=element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(clinton, aes(Start.Date, Approving, color=ElectionTime)) +geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Approving))+xlab("Date")+
ylab("Approval Rating")+ggtitle("Clinton: Time Period in Presidency vs. Approval Rating")+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2000-06-10"), y = 65, label = "Final Year", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1999-08-10"), y = 55, label = "Second Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1999-08-10"), y = 53, label = "(post trial)", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1999-03-10"), y = 70, label = "Impeachment Trial", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1998-08-10"), y = 58, label = "Mid Second", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1998-08-20"), y = 57, label = "Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1997-09-10"), y = 53, label = "First Year", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1997-09-10"), y = 51, label = "(second term)", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1996-01-10"), y = 58, label = "Campaign for", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1996-01-01"), y = 57, label = "Re-Election", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1994-10-10"), y = 38, label = "Mid First Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("1993-08-10"), y = 58, label = "First Year", size=3)+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
axis.title.x=element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(bushjr, aes(Start.Date, Approving, color=ElectionTime)) +geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Approving))+xlab("Date")+
ylab("Approval Rating")+ggtitle("George W. Bush: Time Period in Presidency vs. Approval Rating")+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2008-08-10"), y = 35, label = "Final Year", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2007-01-10"), y = 46, label = "Mid Second Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2005-09-20"), y = 55, label = "First Year", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2005-09-30"), y = 53, label = "(second term)", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2004-02-10"), y = 66, label = "Campaign for", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2004-02-01"), y = 64, label = "Re-Election", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2002-09-10"), y = 55, label = "Mid First Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2001-08-10"), y = 48, label = "First Year", size=3)+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
axis.title.x=element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(obama, aes(Start.Date, Approving, color=ElectionTime)) +geom_line(aes(Start.Date, Approving))+xlab("Date")+
ylab("Approval Rating")+ggtitle("Obama: Time Period in Presidency vs. Approval Rating")+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2016-08-10"), y = 46, label = "Final Year", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2015-05-10"), y = 52, label = "Mid Second", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2015-05-20"), y = 51, label = "Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2013-07-10"), y = 57, label = "First Year", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2013-07-20"), y = 55, label = "(second term)", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2012-01-10"), y = 53, label = "Campaign for", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2012-01-01"), y = 52, label = "Re-Election", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2010-09-10"), y = 53, label = "Mid First Term", size=3)+
annotate("text", x = as.Date("2009-05-10"), y = 70, label = "First Year", size=3)+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
axis.title.x=element_blank(),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
From these graphs, I could tell a few things regarding each president. While Reagan experienced a decrease in popularity throughout his first year in office, he regained popularity throughout his campaign for presidency for a second term.
George Bush gained popularity throughout the beginning of his presidency, particularly in the first year. However, over time, his popularity decreased, and even throughout his campaign for a second term he was unable to gain his original approval rating. Because of this, it is evident that he was not reelected.
Clinton decreased in popularity throughout his first term in office, but gained popularity when campaigning for his second term. From there, he increased in popularity, although his approval rating decreased slightly following his impeachment trial proceedings. He ended his term in office near his highest approval rating throughout his presidency.
George W. Bush increased rapidly in popularity in 2001, but his popularity decreased over time fairly steadily throughout his presidency after this spike.
Obama decreased strongly in popularity throughout his first term in office, but was able to gain popularity when campaigning for his second term (similar to Clinton). He decreased in popularity throughout his second term again, but ended his presidency at an increased popularity and approval rating.
Although some of these presidents followed similar trends in approval rating throughout their presidency, there was not much correlation across the board. Therefore, I found that it was important to look into major political events occurring during each presidency.
Factor 4: Political Events
I loaded the following dataset and filtered accordingly when charting the events throughout each presidency:
read.csv("eventratings.csv") ->events
reaganevents <-events %>% filter(President %in% "Reagan")
clintonevents <-events %>% filter(President %in% "Clinton")
obamaevents <-events %>% filter(President %in% "Obama")
bushjrevents <-events %>% filter(President %in% "George W. Bush")
bushsrevents <-events %>% filter(President %in% "George Bush")
transform(reaganevents, Start.Date = as.numeric(Start.Date))
transform(clintonevents, Start.Date = as.numeric(Start.Date))
transform(obamaevents, Start.Date = as.numeric(Start.Date))
transform(bushjrevents, Start.Date = as.numeric(Start.Date))
transform(bushsrevents, Start.Date = as.numeric(Start.Date))
reaganevents$Start.Date <- mdy(reaganevents$Start.Date)
obamaevents$Start.Date <- mdy(obamaevents$Start.Date)
bushjrevents$Start.Date <- mdy(bushjrevents$Start.Date)
bushsrevents$Start.Date <- mdy(bushsrevents$Start.Date)
clintonevents$Start.Date <- mdy(clintonevents$Start.Date)From there, the following code was used to plot the events that happened during each presidency:
ggplot(reaganevents, aes(Start.Date, Approving)) +
geom_line(color="black")+ggtitle("Events During Reagan Presidency")+
xlab("Date")+ylab("Approval Rate")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("1981-03-30"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("1981-03-30"), label="Reagan Assassination Attempt", y=42,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("1985-08-20"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("1985-08-20"), label="Iran Contra Affair Begins", y=42,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("1986-02-28"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("1986-02-28"), label="Challenger Space Shuttle Explodes", y=45,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("1986-04-15"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("1986-04-15"), label="USA Bombs Libyan Cities", y=45,angle=-90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(bushsrevents, aes(Start.Date, Approving)) +
geom_line(color="black")+ggtitle("Events During George Bush Presidency")+
xlab("Date")+ylab("Approval Rate")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("1989-12-20"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("1989-12-20"), label="USA Troops Invade Panama", y=42,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("1991-08-28"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("1991-08-28"), label="USA aids in Iraq War", y=37,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(clintonevents, aes(Start.Date, Approving)) +
geom_line(color="black")+ggtitle("Events During Clinton Presidency")+
xlab("Date")+ylab("Approval Rate")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("1993-12-08"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("1993-12-08"), label="NAFTA passed by Congress", y=65,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("1995-04-19"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("1995-04-19"), label="Oklahoma Bombing", y=67,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("1998-01-17"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("1998-01-17"), label="Monica Lewinsky Scandal Begins", y=44,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("1999-04-01"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("1999-04-01"), label="USA helps bombard Yugoslavia", y=44,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(bushjrevents, aes(Start.Date, Approving)) +
geom_line(color="black")+ggtitle("Events During George W. Bush Presidency")+ylab("Approval Rate")+xlab("Date")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2001-09-11"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2001-09-11"), label="9/11 Occurs", y=28,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2001-10-15"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2001-10-15"), label="USA Air Strikes Afghanistan", y=37,angle=-90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2002-11-25"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2002-11-25"), label="Homeland Security Act Signed", y=37,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2005-08-15"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2005-08-15"), label="Hurricane Katrina", y=83,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2003-03-20"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2003-03-20"), label="Iraq War Begins", y=30,angle=-90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2007-01-15"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2007-01-15"), label="More Troops sent to Iraq", y=80,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2008-09-15"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2008-09-15"), label="Financial Crisis Begins", y=45,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
ggplot(obamaevents, aes(Start.Date, Approving)) + xlab("Date")+ylab("Approval Rate")+
geom_line(color="black")+ggtitle("Events During Obama Presidency")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2009-01-15"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2009-01-15"),label="Tea Party Protests against Obama Start", y=46,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2010-03-23"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2010-03-23"), label="ObamaCare Passed", y=65,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2011-05-02"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2011-05-02"), label="Osama Bin Laden Killed", y=64,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2013-04-15"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2013-04-15"), label="Boston Marathon Bombing", y=64,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2013-05-20"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2013-05-20"), label="Edward Snowden Flees Russia", y=63,angle=-90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2014-12-15"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2014-12-15"), label="USA and Cuba Begin to Compromise", y=61,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2015-12-17"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2015-12-17"), label="Charleston Shooting", y=65,angle=90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2015-12-02"), color="red", linetype="dashed")+
geom_text(size=2.5,aes(x=as.Date("2015-12-02"), label="San Bernardo Islamic Attack", y=63,angle=-90, vjust=-.8),color="darkgrey")+
theme(panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = 'transparent'),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.position="none",
panel.background=element_blank(),
panel.border=element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
plot.background=element_blank())
Throughout these charts, there were a few very interesting things that occurred. During the George Bush presidency, deciding to aid in the Iraq War caused his approval rating to decline almost immediately. Although his approval was already trending downwards, there is evidence of a sharp decline in popularity following this event. Furthermore, both bombings that occurred during Clinton’s presidency had an overall negative affect on his approval rate. George W. Bush increased an extremely sharp increase in popularity following 9/11, but was unable to maintain the patriotic approval that he gained following this event. Lastly, Obama’s presidency was interesting because he experienced a sharp decrease in popularity throughout the financial crisis. Furthermore, when Osama Bin Laden was killed, there is a noticeable improvement in Obama’s approval rating. After the Boston Marathon bombing and issues with Russia, it is evident that Obama’s approval seemed to decline.
Conclusion
Throughout this project, I learned that each presidency was different, and it is hard to comprehend the approval ratings of each president based on these factors. While there was correlation between the economy (unemployment and inflation rate) and the approval rating of the president, each president had differing results based on events that occurred throughout their terms as well as the portion of their time in office and the strategies that each president was using.
Because of this, I would believe that it is difficult to say that my hypothesis was true for all five of these candidates. The approval rating is strongly dependent on a number of factors, many of which are not indicated throughout this report. In order to do further research, I think that it would be interesting to look at how media coverage has affected presidential approval ratings. Something that I noticed throughout this project is that later presidents’ approval ratings seemed to be more affected by political events. I would argue that this could potentially be due to media coverage, and think that this would be an interesting area for future research.